Five NHL games are on the board this Sunday, and shots on goal props are one of the friendliest markets for newer bettors. You do not need a goal, an assist, or even a good bounce to cash. You just need a player to put the puck on net, and the best shooters do that night after night.

Today’s three picks all come down to the same simple idea: volume wins. We are backing players who get a lot of looks, with lines that look a touch too low for how often they fire. Odds below are from DraftKings as of this morning, so check your book before you bet because numbers move.

Kyle Connor OVER 2.5 Shots on Goal (-130)

Winnipeg is in a rough patch, with eight straight losses and a 4-7-3 record, but Kyle Connor has not slowed down. The Jets winger has 11 goals and 58 shots on goal through 14 games, which works out to roughly 4.1 shots a night. His 2.5 line sits well under that average, and he has cleared it in 16 of his last 25 tracked games.

Here is the catch, and it is worth knowing before you bet. Carolina allows the fewest shots in the league at 22.2 per game, and Pyotr Kochetkov has been excellent in goal. That is a real obstacle and the reason this price is -130 instead of something friendlier.

But look at what that matchup does to the game script. Carolina is a heavy favorite at home, and Winnipeg has allowed five goals in each of its last three games, so the Jets will likely spend plenty of time chasing. Trailing teams shoot more, and Connor is the first option every time Winnipeg sets up in the offensive zone, including on the power play, where he already has five goals. Even a quiet night for him usually means a couple of shots, so he needs just one more to get there.

Tim Stutzle OVER 1.5 Shots on Goal (-190)

This is the safest-looking line on the card, and the price shows it. Stutzle has 21 points through 15 games for Ottawa, with 9 goals and 12 assists, and he fired seven shots on net in his last outing against San Jose. Seven is an outlier, but it shows how quickly his shot totals can jump when he is feeling it.

His season average is about 2.2 shots per game (33 shots in 15 games), so a 1.5 line gives him a little cushion. The matchup helps too. Anaheim has lost seven of its last eight and ranks 31st in goals against, and starter Lukas Dostal is carrying a .872 save percentage. Bad defensive teams hand skilled forwards extra time and space, and Stutzle is exactly the type of player who turns that into shot attempts.

At -190 you are paying a premium, so this is a pick for steady value rather than a big payout. If you want to see how a leg like this fits into a bigger slip, a betting calculator makes the math easy.

Connor McDavid OVER 2.5 Shots on Goal (-155)

McDavid is putting up one of the best starts the league has ever seen, with 37 points in 14 games and a point in 16 straight outings. The shots have been steadier than spectacular, at 36 through 14 games, or about 2.6 per game. That makes this the thinnest of our three, since 2.5 is right at his average rather than comfortably below it.

So why take it? The matchup is the reason. The Rangers have lost three straight and given up 18 goals in that stretch, and with Igor Shesterkin out for the season, the crease belongs to Dylan Garand, who owns a .899 save percentage. Edmonton is also a perfect 6-0-0 on the road. When a team is rolling and the opponent is leaking, McDavid tends to get more touches and more chances to shoot instead of pass.

Some sites have listed 3.5 as a line for McDavid, so confirm you are getting 2.5 at a fair price before you place it. If your book has moved to 3.5, pass.

Lock These In

Shots props reward patience and volume, and each of these three players has the role and the matchup to hit. Connor is the high-volume play against a stingy defense, Stutzle is the steady cushion, and McDavid is the matchup bet. Here is the card:

Only bet what you can afford to lose, and shop around for the best number before you place anything. If you are still choosing a book, our sportsbook reviews break down your options.