BYU Climbs to No. 2 as the Big 12 Takes Over the College Football Playoff Race

BYU turned the College Football Playoff race on its head Saturday night, knocking off No. 2 Notre Dame 28-24 at LaVell Edwards Stadium in Provo and leaping six spots to No. 2 in the latest AP Top 25. Quarterback Bear Bachmeier accounted for four touchdowns, including the game-winning touchdown pass to tight end Walker Lyons with 1:47 remaining, and the Cougars (6-0, 4-0 Big 12) now sit as the highest-ranked Big 12 team in the country heading into Week 8.

The win landed on a Week 7 that wiped out much of the national pecking order. Five of the top seven teams in the AP poll lost, including Georgia, Indiana, Alabama and Texas, leaving the Big 12 with three teams in the top 10: BYU, No. 8 Texas Tech and No. 10 Utah. All three are unbeaten, and the first College Football Playoff rankings arrive Nov. 3, just two Saturdays away.

Bachmeier Does It All as BYU Stuns the Irish

Bachmeier completed 23 of 36 passes for 224 yards and a touchdown, rushed 13 times for 45 yards and two scores, and even caught a touchdown on a trick play, taking a lateral from receiver Kyler Kasper and racing down the sideline. He did it without star running back LJ Martin, the reigning Big 12 Offensive Player of the Year, who is out with a lower-leg injury. Preston Rex helped fill the void with 66 yards on 10 carries.

The defense did its part, holding Notre Dame to two touchdowns and three field goals even though 58 percent of the Irish plays came in BYU territory. Notre Dame quarterback CJ Carr drove the Irish to the BYU 14-yard line in the closing seconds, but his final throw to Jaden Greathouse in the end zone sailed high. It was the first time a top-10 BYU team hosted another top-10 team in Provo, and the first time since 1990 the Cougars beat a top-10 opponent at home.

The finish is not without controversy. The Big 12 said after review that time remained on the clock when the ball hit the ground on the final play and that the replay crew incorrectly cleared it, and the league plans a full review of its end-of-game officiating process. The result stands, but the discussion could linger as the committee builds its rankings.

What the Big 12 Surge Means for the Futures Market

The market was not expecting this. Kalshi traders had Notre Dame at 78 percent to win the game before kickoff, with BYU at 22 percent. That makes the outcome one of the bigger swings of the season, and it has changed how the conference title race is viewed. Published BetMGM Big 12 championship prices have Texas Tech at +200, BYU at +240 and Utah at +300, with Houston at +700, making it essentially a three-team race at the top of the board. The same book lists BYU at +5000 to win the national championship, a number that reflects how much room the market still leaves between a hot start and a title run. Odds move quickly, so check current boards before drawing conclusions.

The Week 8 lines show how oddsmakers see the next test for each contender. BYU opens as a 7-point favorite at UCF with a total of 45.5. Texas Tech is favored by 11.5 at Cincinnati, and Utah is a 6.5-point favorite at home against No. 14 Houston in the first ranked matchup of the Utes’ season, with a total of 56.5. The Utah-Houston game stands out as the conference’s most dangerous spot, since Houston entered the weekend ranked and came inches away from an unbeaten record, falling in a close game to Texas Tech.

A road favorite laying a touchdown after an emotional win is a classic letdown profile, and BYU may still be without Martin, who was projected to miss four to six weeks. The Cougars have leaned on Bachmeier as both passer and runner, and his workload is a storyline worth tracking against a total of 45.5. A total in the mid-40s suggests the market expects a controlled game.

The larger futures question is whether the Big 12 can place multiple teams in the 12-team playoff. Strength of schedule will matter, and the conference still has several head-to-head collisions ahead among BYU, Texas Tech and Utah. Those games will likely decide who owns the league’s top seed and how many at-large bids the conference can claim. For anyone tracking Big 12 title prices, those head-to-head results are the real catalysts, not the weekly poll movement.

For now, BYU has the best resume in the conference, a quarterback playing like a Heisman candidate, and a market that is still adjusting to the idea that Provo is a legitimate playoff destination. Saturday at UCF is the next opportunity to prove the Cougars are for real.