Sunday’s MLB slate is a one-game show, and it is a big one. The Rays and Guardians are tied 2-2 in the ALCS, and Game 5 at Progressive Field (first pitch around 5:08 PM ET) will pit two All-Star starters against each other: Drew Rasmussen for Tampa Bay and rookie lefty Parker Messick for Cleveland. When there is only one game on the board, the pitching props are where the sharpest angles live.

The Rays are around -128 on the moneyline with a total of 6.5, which tells you books expect a tight, low-scoring game. That is exactly the environment where starter props shine, so here are three pitching props worth a look, built on recent numbers and the matchup rather than a gut feeling.

Parker Messick Under 4.5 Strikeouts

This one starts with who Messick is facing. The Rays posted the lowest strikeout rate against left-handed pitching in baseball this season at 18.1%, and as a team they strike out less and swing and miss less than anyone in the majors. That is a lineup built to put the ball in play, which is the opposite of what a strikeout prop wants.

Messick’s raw numbers are strong (193 strikeouts in 186 1/3 innings this year), but his October has been about survival rather than dominance. In Game 2 against these same Rays he went five innings, allowed six hits and two walks, and struck out just three on 82 pitches, with only 47 of them going for strikes. Three starts into the postseason he has 14 strikeouts in 11 2/3 innings, but he has also walked eight, and walks mean long at-bats and early exits, not extra whiffs.

The market sits at 4.5 with the under around -105 at BetMGM, and the Dimers model gives it a 57.8% chance of hitting. Against a contact-first lineup that has already seen him once this series, we like the under.

Drew Rasmussen Under 4.5 Hits Allowed

Rasmussen is one of the hardest starters in baseball to string hits against. He went 16-5 with a 2.67 ERA and a 0.91 WHIP this season, which means he allows fewer than one baserunner per inning. In the postseason he is 1-0 with a 1.29 ERA and 17 strikeouts in 14 innings.

The Guardians did get to him in Game 1, tagging him for eight hits across six innings, and that is the main reason this line is not a lock. But eight hits in a game was the exception for a pitcher who rarely lets hitters pile up knocks, and the under 4.5 is priced around -117 at DraftKings, meaning the book sees it as a modestly better-than-even proposition. Rasmussen averaged roughly 17 outs per start this season, so he will have plenty of time to pile up hits if things go sideways. It is a bet on his season-long contact suppression over one rough night against these hitters.

If you want a little more margin, shop around. Prices on this number vary from book to book, so check your app before you bet.

Parker Messick Over 15.5 Outs Recorded

An outs-recorded prop is just a way of betting on how deep a starter goes, and 15.5 outs means Messick needs to get through five full innings and record at least one out in the sixth. Plus-money on that, around +144 at DraftKings, is the most interesting price on the board.

His postseason has been uneven here. He lasted just 2 1/3 innings in ALDS Game 4 (65 pitches, four walks), but followed that with five innings against Tampa Bay in Game 2 despite a messy outing. The Dimers model projects him for 13.8 outs, which is below the line, so this is the riskiest of the three. The plus price is what makes it worth a small play: Messick was an AL Cy Young and Rookie of the Year contender this season, and Cleveland has every reason to ride its best starter as deep as he can go in a must-have Game 5.

It is a smaller-stakes swing, but at +144 you only need it to land a bit more than four out of ten times to profit.

Lock These In

With only one game on the slate and two starters this good, the unders on strikeouts and hits are the cleanest spots, and the outs prop is the longer-priced swing. Here are the three plays, with lines as of Sunday morning. Odds move, so check your book for the current number before betting, and if you are new to the process, our betting calculator is a good way to see what your stake would return.

Props are never guaranteed, so stake only what you are comfortable losing. If you want to compare prices on the game itself, you can see the latest live MLB odds before first pitch.