Jayden Daniels says his surgically-avoided left elbow “feels good,” and Washington Commanders head coach Dan Quinn confirmed Thursday that his quarterback has a real path to starting Sunday against the Indianapolis Colts in London if he clears two more practices. The update marks a notable shift from earlier in the week, when most reports pegged Daniels as unlikely to suit up at Tottenham Hotspur Stadium.
Daniels dislocated his non-throwing elbow for the second time in as many seasons during Washington’s Week 2 loss at Dallas, an injury gruesome enough on replay that it briefly raised fears of a multi-week absence or even surgery. Instead, Daniels avoided the operating table, was labeled week-to-week, and has steadily progressed through the Commanders’ bye-less stretch heading into the London game. He told reporters Thursday he’s taking the recovery “day by day” and won’t revisit the surgery question until after the season.
What Changed Between Wednesday and Thursday
Daniels was a limited participant in Washington’s walkthrough-style practice Wednesday after the team’s Tuesday night flight to England, his first on-field work since the injury. Quinn was noncommittal at the time, saying only that the staff needed to see how Daniels handled an increased workload before making any declarations. By Thursday, the tone had shifted: Quinn indicated Daniels could realistically start if Thursday and Friday’s practices go well, with the team planning to ramp up his reps as the week progresses. Daniels has been wearing a black brace on the elbow that, according to reporting, he intends to use for the rest of the season regardless of when he returns.
In Daniels’ absence, backup Marcus Mariota led the Commanders to a 33-31 upset of the defending Super Bowl champion Seattle Seahawks in Week 3, Mariota’s first start of the year. Mariota said this week that if Daniels is healthy enough to play, “he should play,” framing the quarterback competition as a non-issue even after his own strong showing. “This is his team,” Mariota added, noting that his job is to support Daniels’ return rather than hold onto the starting job himself. Washington enters Week 4 at 1-2, with the 2024 Offensive Rookie of the Year’s return viewed as central to the offense reaching its ceiling against a Colts defense that will lean on a productive Jonathan Taylor-led rushing attack on the other side of the ball. The backfield is also set to get a boost of its own, with Austin Ekeler eligible for a Week 4 return in London as Washington looks to round back into form on both sides of the ball.
The injury itself is notable for how it has been managed. Daniels avoided a fracture and significant ligament damage, which is why doctors cleared him to begin throwing again relatively quickly compared to a typical dislocation. Because the injury is on his non-throwing arm, Washington’s medical staff has focused less on arm strength and more on functionality, stability, and pain tolerance while moving — the elbow needs to hold up through contact, not just through a throwing motion. That distinction is part of why Quinn has described this week’s practices as a progression rather than a single pass-fail test, with Thursday and Friday carrying the most weight before a final call is expected closer to kickoff.
How the Betting Market Is Reacting
The uncertainty around Daniels has been baked directly into the line all week. The Colts vs. Commanders spread opened with Washington favored by around 1.5 points before flipping entirely, settling with Indianapolis as roughly a 3 to 3.5-point favorite as the week progressed — a swing of nearly five points tied almost entirely to Daniels’ injury status rather than any shift in the Colts’ profile. The total has moved as well, drifting down from an opening number in the 48.5 range to settle closer to 47.5, reflecting expectations of a more conservative offensive script if Washington is forced to lean on Mariota again.
Moneyline pricing has told a similar story, with Indianapolis sitting in a range that implies they’re considered clear but not overwhelming favorites, and Washington priced as a live underdog rather than a team given up on entirely. That gap matters for bettors tracking the market: any positive practice report or formal confirmation that Daniels will start would be expected to tighten the spread back toward Washington, while a setback or ruled-out designation would likely push the number further in the Colts’ favor. With Washington’s first drop in elbow trouble a year ago shelving Daniels for roughly five weeks, oddsmakers and bettors alike are treating Friday’s final practice and the official injury report as the key data point before kickoff Sunday morning at 9:30 a.m. ET.
