Caitlin Clark had the worst shooting night of her career, and it cost the Indiana Fever a shot at a better playoff seed — but it also set up a rematch with the team that gave them their toughest fight all season.
Quick take:
- What happened: Lynx 86, Fever 66 in the regular-season finale at Target Center
- Why it matters: The loss dropped Indiana from the No. 5 seed to No. 6, setting up a first-round date with the defending champion Las Vegas Aces
- The number to watch: Clark shot 1-for-12 from the field for a career-low two points
Minnesota had already clinched the No. 1 seed before Thursday’s tip-off at Target Center, but the Lynx still played like a team with something to prove. Kayla McBride poured in 22 points on 6-of-10 shooting from deep, and Natasha Howard added 21 on a perfect 9-of-11 from the floor as Minnesota jumped out to a 25-4 lead in the opening minutes and never let the Fever back into it. Indiana trailed by as many as 36 points before a garbage-time push made the final margin look more respectable than the game actually was.
A Rough Ending That Reshuffled the Bracket
Indiana came in loose after routing this same Lynx team 96-77 just two days earlier, but Thursday was a completely different story. Kelsey Mitchell led the Fever with 10 points on 3-of-12 shooting, which snapped her league-record streak of 27 straight games scoring at least 20 points. Aliyah Boston added four points before exiting with an injury, and Clark’s 1-of-12 night — including an 0-for-7 mark from three — was easily the worst shooting performance of her career. Indiana shot just 34% from the field and 16% from three as a team, numbers that would sink almost any team against a top-seeded opponent playing with house money.
| Sunday, September 27 at 2:00 PM | Spread | Money | Total |
| New York Liberty | 
+7.5 (-118) | 
+250 | 
O 173.5 (-105) |
| Minnesota Lynx |
-7.5 (-112) | 
-270 |
U 173.5 (-115) |
Seeding Fallout: Fever Drop to No. 6, Draw the Aces
The loss, combined with the Washington Mystics’ win over the Chicago Sky the same night, pushed Indiana (28-16) down to the No. 6 seed instead of the No. 5 spot they controlled entering the day. Washington claimed the tiebreaker over the Fever by virtue of a 2-1 regular-season series edge. That seeding shift matters — it sends Indiana into a first-round series against the No. 3 seed Las Vegas Aces rather than a potentially more favorable matchup.
Recent Form
Both clubs enter the playoffs on wildly different trajectories after Thursday’s result, even though the Fever’s overall body of work says more than one bad shooting night. Anyone shopping lines for the series can check the latest live betting odds before Game 1 tips off Sunday.
| DATE | OPP | CLOSE | RESULT | ATS/OU |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 25, 2026 | @Minnesota Lynx | +1.5 / 181.5 | Lost 86-66 | Lost / Under |
| Sep 23, 2026 | Minnesota Lynx | -6.5 / 190.5 | Won 96-77 | Won / Under |
| Sep 20, 2026 | Washington Mystics | -2.5 / 181.5 | Lost 77-93 | Lost / Under |
| Sep 18, 2026 | @Toronto Tempo | -21.5 / 193.5 | Won 85-103 | Lost / Under |
| Aug 28, 2026 | Connecticut Sun | -14.5 / 188.5 | Won 111-91 | Won / Over |
| Aug 23, 2026 | @Chicago Sky | -2.5 / 192.5 | Won 90-113 | Won / Over |
| Aug 22, 2026 | @New York Liberty | +1.5 / 187.5 | Lost 109-102 | Lost / Over |
| Aug 21, 2026 | @Dallas Wings | -6.5 / 187.5 | Lost 91-85 | Lost / Under |
| Aug 18, 2026 | @Toronto Tempo | -15.5 / 187.5 | Won 95-101 | Lost / Over |
| Aug 16, 2026 | @Atlanta Dream | -5.5 / 189.5 | Won 91-95 | Lost / Under |
| DATE | OPP | CLOSE | RESULT | ATS/OU |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 25, 2026 | @Phoenix Mercury | -31.5 / 190.5 | Won 82-100 | Lost / Under |
| Sep 23, 2026 | Los Angeles Sparks | -17.5 / 180.5 | Won 89-79 | Lost / Under |
| Sep 21, 2026 | Seattle Storm | -17.5 / 180.5 | Won 98-77 | Won / Under |
| Sep 18, 2026 | @Seattle Storm | -10.5 / 176.5 | Won 77-114 | Won / Over |
| Aug 29, 2026 | Toronto Tempo | -17.5 / 176.5 | Won 93-73 | Won / Under |
| Aug 23, 2026 | @Toronto Tempo | -16.5 / 180.5 | Won 78-88 | Lost / Under |
| Aug 21, 2026 | Connecticut Sun | -16.5 / 168.5 | Won 101-78 | Won / Over |
| Aug 19, 2026 | Atlanta Dream | -3.5 / 182.5 | Lost 82-97 | Lost / Under |
| Aug 16, 2026 | Minnesota Lynx | +3.5 / 182.5 | Lost 87-92 | Lost / Under |
| Aug 14, 2026 | Washington Mystics | -10.5 / 169.5 | Won 86-76 | Lost / Under |
Showing 10 of last 10 meetings
| DATE | TEAM | OPP | CLOSE | RESULT | ATS/OU |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 6, 2026 | Indiana Fever | @Las Vegas Aces | +4.5 / 189.5 | Lost 84-86 | Won / Under |
| Jul 13, 2026 | Las Vegas Aces | @Indiana Fever | -4.5 / 181.5 | Lost 75-109 | Lost / Over |
| Jul 5, 2026 | Las Vegas Aces | @Indiana Fever | -2.5 / 180.5 | Lost 68-84 | Lost / Under |
| Oct 1, 2025 | Las Vegas Aces | @Indiana Fever | -8.5 / 158.5 | Won 107-98 | Won / Over |
| Sep 28, 2025 | Indiana Fever | @Las Vegas Aces | +3.5 / 161.5 | Won 90-83 | Won / Over |
| Sep 26, 2025 | Indiana Fever | @Las Vegas Aces | +3.5 / 163.5 | Lost 72-84 | Lost / Under |
| Sep 24, 2025 | Las Vegas Aces | @Indiana Fever | -9.5 / 164.5 | Won 90-68 | Won / Under |
| Sep 21, 2025 | Las Vegas Aces | @Indiana Fever | -8.5 / 166.5 | Lost 73-89 | Lost / Under |
| Jul 24, 2025 | Indiana Fever | @Las Vegas Aces | +1.5 / 164.5 | Won 80-70 | Won / Under |
| Jul 3, 2025 | Indiana Fever | @Las Vegas Aces | +4.5 / 163.5 | Won 81-54 | Won / Under |
What Indiana’s Playoff Matchup Actually Looks Like
Here’s the encouraging part for Fever fans still stinging from Thursday: Indiana actually won the season series against Las Vegas, 2-1. The Fever blew the Aces out twice in Las Vegas — 84-68 on July 5 and 109-75 on July 12 — with Mitchell scoring 27 points and Clark dishing 12 points, seven rebounds and six assists in that second win. The lone loss came in Indianapolis on August 6, when Chelsea Gray hit back-to-back buzzer-beating threes, one to force overtime and one to win it, in an 86-84 defending-champion escape act.
The Fever have outscored the Aces by a combined 50 points in their two wins this season, while their only loss came on a pair of Chelsea Gray buzzer-beaters in overtime.
A’ja Wilson remains the swing factor for Las Vegas — she’s averaging 26.0 points, 10.2 rebounds and shooting 52.3% from the field in 2026, and she torched Indiana for 26 points in the Aces’ lone win over them. But the Fever have shown they can match Las Vegas physically when their shooting is falling, and this series will hinge heavily on whether Mitchell and Clark can shake off Thursday’s shooting slump before Game 1 tips at Michelob Ultra Arena.
There’s also a notable wrinkle in this specific head-to-head: the road team won every single game in the 2026 regular-season series between these two clubs. Indiana handled business on the Aces’ home floor twice, and Las Vegas returned the favor in Indianapolis. That trend obviously can’t hold across a full playoff series, but it does suggest neither team has fully solved the other at home, which could make Games 1 and 3 in Las Vegas more competitive than the seeding gap implies.
Series Outlook
Indiana’s finale performance was ugly, but one bad shooting night against a Lynx team playing with house money shouldn’t erase a season series the Fever actually won. Las Vegas gets home court for Games 1 and 3, and the Aces’ championship pedigree and Wilson’s two-way dominance make them the favorite on paper. Still, Indiana has already proven this year it can beat this specific team — twice, decisively — when Clark and Mitchell are hitting shots.
The pick:
- Prediction: Aces win the series, but Indiana takes at least one game behind a Clark/Mitchell bounce-back
- Best Bet: Fever +1.5 in Game 1 based on their head-to-head track record against this Las Vegas roster
Thursday’s blowout stings, but it’s one bad shooting night sandwiched between two wins over the same opponent that now stands between Indiana and the semifinals.
