A’ja Wilson closed the book on the Las Vegas Aces’ regular season with 34 points, and now the real season starts.
Quick take:
- Pick: Aces cruised, 100-82, closing the regular season as the No. 3 seed
- Why: Wilson and a suddenly-scorching Jewell Loyd off the bench were simply too much for a Mercury team playing out the string
- The number to watch: Wilson’s 34 points on the finale pushed her regular-season average to 26.0 points, 9.4 rebounds and 3.2 assists a night
Las Vegas closed out its regular season slate at the Mortgage Matchup Center early Friday morning, and the Aces made sure to leave Phoenix with a message sent. A 100-82 win over the Mercury locked in the No. 3 seed in the West, pairing Wilson’s MVP-caliber production with a reserve unit that got hot at exactly the right time.
Phoenix, playing out a lost campaign at 16-27, had nothing to play for beyond pride. Kahleah Copper and the Mercury’s young core kept things competitive for a half, but a 33-18 second quarter from Las Vegas turned the game into exactly the kind of tune-up a No. 3 seed wants heading into the postseason.
How the Line Moved and What the Market Saw
Vegas opened as a heavy favorite in this one, and bettors treated it accordingly — the total closed at 174.5 with the Aces laying a hefty number as road chalk against a Mercury club with nothing on the line. The final score cleared the total comfortably and covered with room to spare, which tracked with how lopsided the middle two quarters played out. Anyone leaning on live betting odds during the finale saw the number move in Las Vegas’ favor throughout the day as reports of Phoenix resting several regulars circulated.
| Sunday, September 27 at 9:00 PM | Spread | Money | Total |
| Indiana Fever | 
+4.5 (-118) | 
+160 | 
O 182.5 (-108) |
| Las Vegas Aces |
-4.5 (-115) |
-178 |
U 181.5 (-110) |
Recent Form
Both clubs enter very different stretches of their calendars — Las Vegas is playoff-bound and buttoning up rotations, while Phoenix already has one eye on the offseason.
| DATE | OPP | CLOSE | RESULT | ATS/OU |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 25, 2026 | @Phoenix Mercury | -31.5 / 190.5 | Won 82-100 | Lost / Under |
| Sep 23, 2026 | Los Angeles Sparks | -17.5 / 180.5 | Won 89-79 | Lost / Under |
| Sep 21, 2026 | Seattle Storm | -17.5 / 180.5 | Won 98-77 | Won / Under |
| Sep 18, 2026 | @Seattle Storm | -10.5 / 176.5 | Won 77-114 | Won / Over |
| Aug 29, 2026 | Toronto Tempo | -17.5 / 176.5 | Won 93-73 | Won / Under |
| Aug 23, 2026 | @Toronto Tempo | -16.5 / 180.5 | Won 78-88 | Lost / Under |
| Aug 21, 2026 | Connecticut Sun | -16.5 / 168.5 | Won 101-78 | Won / Over |
| Aug 19, 2026 | Atlanta Dream | -3.5 / 182.5 | Lost 82-97 | Lost / Under |
| Aug 16, 2026 | Minnesota Lynx | +3.5 / 182.5 | Lost 87-92 | Lost / Under |
| Aug 14, 2026 | Washington Mystics | -10.5 / 169.5 | Won 86-76 | Lost / Under |
| DATE | OPP | CLOSE | RESULT | ATS/OU |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 25, 2026 | Las Vegas Aces | +31.5 / 190.5 | Lost 82-100 | Won / Under |
| Sep 22, 2026 | Dallas Wings | +7.5 / 175.5 | Won 87-86 | Won / Under |
| Sep 19, 2026 | @Dallas Wings | +8.5 / 172.5 | Lost 87-82 | Won / Under |
| Sep 18, 2026 | @Portland Fire | -6.5 / 180.5 | Won 91-94 | Lost / Over |
| Aug 30, 2026 | Toronto Tempo | -12.5 / 167.5 | Won 101-69 | Won / Over |
| Aug 28, 2026 | Washington Mystics | +2.5 / 161.5 | Lost 84-94 | Lost / Over |
| Aug 28, 2026 | Washington Mystics | +2.5 / 161.5 | Lost 73-80 | Lost / Under |
| Aug 26, 2026 | Washington Mystics | +1.5 / 170.5 | Lost 84-94 | Lost / Over |
| Aug 23, 2026 | Atlanta Dream | +12.5 / 179.5 | Lost 89-99 | Won / Over |
| Aug 16, 2026 | Portland Fire | -6.5 / 180.5 | Lost 85-88 | Lost / Under |
Showing 10 of last 10 meetings
| DATE | TEAM | OPP | CLOSE | RESULT | ATS/OU |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 25, 2026 | Phoenix Mercury | @Las Vegas Aces | +31.5 / 190.5 | Lost 82-100 | Won / Under |
| Jul 11, 2026 | Las Vegas Aces | @Phoenix Mercury | -8.5 / 168.5 | Won 106-58 | Won / Under |
| Jun 18, 2026 | Phoenix Mercury | @Las Vegas Aces | +6.5 / 171.5 | Lost 76-86 | Lost / Under |
| May 9, 2026 | Las Vegas Aces | @Phoenix Mercury | -9.5 / 168.5 | Lost 66-99 | Lost / Under |
| Oct 11, 2025 | Phoenix Mercury | @Las Vegas Aces | +1.5 / 163.5 | Lost 86-97 | Lost / Over |
| Oct 9, 2025 | Phoenix Mercury | @Las Vegas Aces | -4.5 / 163.5 | Lost 88-90 | Lost / Over |
| Oct 5, 2025 | Las Vegas Aces | @Phoenix Mercury | -2.5 / 163.5 | Won 91-78 | Won / Over |
| Oct 4, 2025 | Las Vegas Aces | @Phoenix Mercury | -2.5 / 163.5 | Won 89-86 | Won / Over |
| Aug 22, 2025 | Las Vegas Aces | @Phoenix Mercury | -1.5 / 170.5 | Won 83-61 | Won / Under |
| Aug 16, 2025 | Phoenix Mercury | @Las Vegas Aces | -4.5 / 167.5 | Lost 83-86 | Lost / Over |
Wilson’s MVP Case and Loyd’s Late Surge
Wilson’s line in the finale — 34 points on efficient shooting — was the latest data point in a season that saw her average 26.0 points, 9.4 rebounds, 3.2 assists and 1.9 blocks per game, numbers that put her squarely in the four-time MVP conversation once again. She’s been the engine for a Las Vegas team that dealt with real adversity, including losing Kelsey Plum for the year to a lower-leg injury after a midseason trade sent her to Phoenix.
The bigger development down the stretch has been Jewell Loyd. After a rough shooting season by her standards — a career-low scoring average in the 7-8 point range for most of the year — Loyd erupted for 25 points off the bench in the finale, exactly the kind of scoring punch a No. 3 seed needs from its second unit heading into a playoff bracket that’s suddenly wide open behind Minnesota and Golden State.
Wilson’s 34-point finale pushed her final regular-season averages to 26.0 points, 9.4 rebounds and 3.2 assists a night.
For Phoenix, Copper remains the engine offensively even in a lost season, averaging 21.6 points a game and delivering All-Star-caliber shot creation all year. But the Mercury’s inability to keep pace with the Aces’ guard depth down the stretch — even with the game meaning nothing in the standings — is the kind of context Las Vegas will take into its playoff opener with confidence.
Prediction and Best Bet
This one’s already in the books, and it played out exactly like a No. 3 seed padding its finishing kick against a team with nothing to play for. Las Vegas dominated the middle two quarters and never let Phoenix’s guards get comfortable.
The pick:
- Prediction: Las Vegas Aces 100, Phoenix Mercury 82 (Final)
- Best Bet: Aces covered the spread comfortably as the road favorite
The real intrigue starts now — Wilson and a reinvigorated Loyd carry momentum into a first-round series that will test just how much this Aces roster has left in the tank.
