The Lynx have already locked up the WNBA’s best record, but the Fever just walked into Minneapolis fresh off proving they’re the one team that has their number.
Quick take:
- Pick: Indiana Fever -2.5
- Why: Caitlin Clark and Kelsey Mitchell just torched this exact Lynx defense 48 hours ago, and Minnesota has nothing left to play for in its regular-season finale
- The number to watch: Kelsey Mitchell’s 27 straight games with 20-plus points
Indiana (28-15) closed out its home schedule Tuesday night with a 96-77 blowout of Minnesota, and now the two teams turn right back around for the Lynx’s regular-season finale at Target Center. Minnesota (32-11) has the West locked up and the league’s best overall record, but there’s a real gap between “best record” and “playing its best basketball” right now — the Lynx have dropped their last matchup with Indiana and enter Thursday on a one-game skid.
Both teams are essentially playing out the string before the postseason, which changes the calculus here. Minnesota has nothing left to clinch. Indiana, fighting to hold its Eastern Conference seed, has every incentive to keep its foot down.
Why the Market Still Likes Indiana on the Road
Books have Indiana favored by 2.5 with a moneyline around -135 to -150 depending on the shop, and the total sits at 183.5. Checking live betting odds closer to tip-off is worth it given how much these numbers have moved since Tuesday’s blowout. That’s a notable line for a team traveling to face the WNBA’s regular-season champion, and it’s a direct reflection of how thoroughly the Fever dismantled Minnesota’s defense two nights ago — 96 points, 31 in the first quarter alone, on a Lynx team that had won 32 games this season. Bettors backing the Lynx here are largely betting on pride and a get-right game with the playoffs looming; bettors on Indiana are betting that the blueprint from Tuesday travels.
| Thursday, September 24 at 8:00 PM | Spread | Money | Total |
| Indiana Fever | 
-3.5 (-115) | 
-162 | 
O 183.5 (-106) |
| Minnesota Lynx | 
+3.5 (-113) |
+145 | 
U 182.5 (-110) |
Recent Form
The head-to-head data below tells the story of a season series that flipped hard in Indiana’s favor down the stretch, and the form numbers show two teams trending in opposite directions at exactly the wrong time for Minnesota.
| DATE | OPP | CLOSE | RESULT | ATS/OU |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 23, 2026 | Minnesota Lynx | -6.5 / 190.5 | Won 96-77 | Won / Under |
| Sep 20, 2026 | Washington Mystics | -2.5 / 181.5 | Lost 77-93 | Lost / Under |
| Sep 18, 2026 | @Toronto Tempo | -21.5 / 193.5 | Won 85-103 | Lost / Under |
| Aug 28, 2026 | Connecticut Sun | -14.5 / 188.5 | Won 111-91 | Won / Over |
| Aug 23, 2026 | @Chicago Sky | -2.5 / 192.5 | Won 90-113 | Won / Over |
| Aug 22, 2026 | @New York Liberty | +1.5 / 187.5 | Lost 109-102 | Lost / Over |
| Aug 21, 2026 | @Dallas Wings | -6.5 / 187.5 | Lost 91-85 | Lost / Under |
| Aug 18, 2026 | @Toronto Tempo | -15.5 / 187.5 | Won 95-101 | Lost / Over |
| Aug 16, 2026 | @Atlanta Dream | -5.5 / 189.5 | Won 91-95 | Lost / Under |
| Aug 14, 2026 | Dallas Wings | -7.5 / 171.5 | Won 98-87 | Won / Over |
| DATE | OPP | CLOSE | RESULT | ATS/OU |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 23, 2026 | @Indiana Fever | +6.5 / 190.5 | Lost 96-77 | Lost / Under |
| Sep 20, 2026 | @Connecticut Sun | -24.5 / 168.5 | Won 89-101 | Lost / Over |
| Sep 18, 2026 | New York Liberty | -5.5 / 167.5 | Lost 81-93 | Lost / Over |
| Aug 30, 2026 | @Atlanta Dream | +4.5 / 182.5 | Lost 89-81 | Lost / Under |
| Aug 30, 2026 | @Atlanta Dream | +9.5 / 172.5 | Lost 89-81 | Won / Under |
| Aug 25, 2026 | Golden State Valkyries | -8.5 / 153.5 | Lost 66-80 | Lost / Under |
| Aug 21, 2026 | @Washington Mystics | -8.5 / 173.5 | Won 84-94 | Won / Over |
| Aug 20, 2026 | @Golden State Valkyries | -4.5 / 160.5 | Won 66-77 | Won / Under |
| Aug 16, 2026 | @Las Vegas Aces | -3.5 / 182.5 | Won 87-92 | Won / Under |
| Aug 13, 2026 | @Portland Fire | -15.5 / 189.5 | Won 81-85 | Lost / Under |
Showing 10 of last 10 meetings
| DATE | TEAM | OPP | CLOSE | RESULT | ATS/OU |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 23, 2026 | Indiana Fever | @Minnesota Lynx | -6.5 / 190.5 | Won 96-77 | Won / Under |
| Aug 2, 2026 | Minnesota Lynx | @Indiana Fever | -7.5 / 209.5 | Won 108-100 | Won / Under |
| Sep 9, 2025 | Indiana Fever | @Minnesota Lynx | +1.5 / 164.5 | Won 83-72 | Won / Under |
| Aug 24, 2025 | Minnesota Lynx | @Indiana Fever | -11.5 / 167.5 | Won 97-84 | Won / Over |
| Aug 22, 2025 | Indiana Fever | @Minnesota Lynx | +4.5 / 164.5 | Lost 90-95 | Lost / Over |
| Jul 2, 2025 | Minnesota Lynx | @Indiana Fever | -10.5 / 159.5 | Lost 59-74 | Lost / Under |
| Sep 6, 2024 | Indiana Fever | @Minnesota Lynx | +2.5 / 169.5 | Lost 88-99 | Lost / Over |
| Aug 25, 2024 | Minnesota Lynx | @Indiana Fever | -4.5 / 167.5 | Won 90-80 | Won / Over |
| Jul 14, 2024 | Minnesota Lynx | @Indiana Fever | -4.5 / 164.5 | Lost 74-81 | Lost / Under |
| Sep 10, 2023 | Indiana Fever | @Minnesota Lynx | +2.5 / 164 | Won 87-72 | Won / Under |
Mitchell’s Streak and Collier’s Return Collide
Kelsey Mitchell has been the story of Indiana’s second half. She dropped 20 in Tuesday’s win to extend her own WNBA record to 27 consecutive games scoring 20-plus points, and she’s doing it on efficient volume as one of the league’s top scorers this season. Caitlin Clark, dealing with a back issue that’s had her in and out of the injury report all year, still went for 27 points, nine assists and seven rebounds against this same Lynx defense and was considered probable-to-available again for Thursday. When both are rolling, Indiana’s offense is difficult for anyone to slow down, let alone a Minnesota defense that just conceded 96.
Napheesa Collier remains Minnesota’s engine after returning from offseason ankle surgery, averaging right around 17-18 points and seven rebounds a night since working back into form. She missed the first ten weeks of the season recovering from surgery on both ankles, and while she’s rounded back into a reliable double-double threat, this isn’t quite the MVP-caliber version of Collier that finished second in league voting each of the last two years. Rookie Olivia Miles has been the bigger revelation, pushing MVP and Rookie of the Year buzz while carrying the Lynx during Collier’s absence earlier this year — but Miles was questionable with a left calf issue heading into Tuesday’s loss, and any lingering effect there only tilts this matchup further toward Indiana.
Aliyah Boston has quietly been part of the reason Indiana’s frontcourt has held up against Minnesota’s size. She added 17 points and seven rebounds in Tuesday’s win, giving the Fever a second reliable scoring option beyond the Clark-Mitchell backcourt whenever Minnesota tries to load up on either guard. That balance matters against a Lynx team that generated most of its offense inside during the regular season and will need its role players to hit outside shots if Indiana continues selling out to take away the paint.
Indiana outscored Minnesota 31-16 in the first quarter of Tuesday’s meeting.
That’s the number that should worry Lynx backers. A slow start against this Fever team hasn’t been recoverable lately, and Minnesota trailed by double digits for the better part of three quarters in the series’ most recent meeting. With the playoffs on deck and seeding already secured, there’s no guarantee Cheryl Reeve treats this finale with the same urgency Indiana brings while still jockeying for postseason position.
Prediction and Best Bet
Indiana has the hotter hand, the healthier motivation, and a very recent blueprint for beating this specific Lynx roster. Minnesota’s talent level says this should be close on paper, but form and stakes both point the same direction.
The pick:
- Prediction: Indiana Fever 88, Minnesota Lynx 82
- Best Bet: Indiana Fever -2.5
Fade the top seed’s motivation gap and ride the team that just proved it can play with anyone in the league right now.
