The WNBA’s No. 1 seed race just got a lot more interesting after Kelsey Mitchell and the Indiana Fever knocked off the Minnesota Lynx on their own home floor.
Quick take:
- Pick: Indiana Fever -3.5 in the rematch
- Why: Indiana’s defense and depth exposed a shorthanded Lynx roster, and the Fever now have every reason to believe they can finish the sweep
- The number to watch: Minnesota shot just 16 points in the first quarter, its worst start of the entire season
Caitlin Clark had 27 points, nine assists and seven rebounds, and Kelsey Mitchell poured in 20 more to push her single-season scoring record even higher as the Fever throttled Minnesota 96-77 at Gainbridge Fieldhouse. Aliyah Boston chipped in 17 points and seven rebounds, and Indiana never trailed after a 31-16 opening quarter that buried the Lynx before they ever found their footing.
Minnesota still enters the finale of this home-and-home leading the Western Conference at 32-11. But the cushion the Lynx were counting on to lock up the No. 1 overall seed just got a lot thinner, and it happened without Olivia Miles, who sat out with a calf issue just days after breaking Clark’s WNBA rookie scoring record.
What the Odds Say About the Rematch
Books had Minnesota as a road favorite for the Gainbridge Fieldhouse leg, with the Lynx opening around -1.5 and the total sitting near 185.5-188.5. Bettors tracking live sports betting odds saw that line move fast once Indiana jumped out to a 31-16 first quarter. Indiana’s convincing win flips that script for the finale — sportsbooks are already shading toward the Fever carrying real value into the second game after exposing Minnesota’s turnover issues and out-rebounding a Lynx frontcourt that finished with just 23 boards to Indiana’s 33 in the first meeting back in August, when Minnesota still won 108-100. This time the roles reversed, and the market notices patterns like that.
Recent Form
Both teams are playing with the highest stakes of the regular season, and the form below tells two very different stories heading into the last game of the year.
| DATE | OPP | CLOSE | RESULT | ATS/OU |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 23, 2026 | @Indiana Fever | +6.5 / 190.5 | Lost 96-77 | Lost / Under |
| Sep 20, 2026 | @Connecticut Sun | -24.5 / 168.5 | Won 89-101 | Lost / Over |
| Sep 18, 2026 | New York Liberty | -5.5 / 167.5 | Lost 81-93 | Lost / Over |
| Aug 30, 2026 | @Atlanta Dream | +4.5 / 182.5 | Lost 89-81 | Lost / Under |
| Aug 30, 2026 | @Atlanta Dream | +9.5 / 172.5 | Lost 89-81 | Won / Under |
| Aug 25, 2026 | Golden State Valkyries | -8.5 / 153.5 | Lost 66-80 | Lost / Under |
| Aug 21, 2026 | @Washington Mystics | -8.5 / 173.5 | Won 84-94 | Won / Over |
| Aug 20, 2026 | @Golden State Valkyries | -4.5 / 160.5 | Won 66-77 | Won / Under |
| Aug 16, 2026 | @Las Vegas Aces | -3.5 / 182.5 | Won 87-92 | Won / Under |
| Aug 13, 2026 | @Portland Fire | -15.5 / 189.5 | Won 81-85 | Lost / Under |
| DATE | OPP | CLOSE | RESULT | ATS/OU |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 23, 2026 | Minnesota Lynx | -6.5 / 190.5 | Won 96-77 | Won / Under |
| Sep 20, 2026 | Washington Mystics | -2.5 / 181.5 | Lost 77-93 | Lost / Under |
| Sep 18, 2026 | @Toronto Tempo | -21.5 / 193.5 | Won 85-103 | Lost / Under |
| Aug 28, 2026 | Connecticut Sun | -14.5 / 188.5 | Won 111-91 | Won / Over |
| Aug 23, 2026 | @Chicago Sky | -2.5 / 192.5 | Won 90-113 | Won / Over |
| Aug 22, 2026 | @New York Liberty | +1.5 / 187.5 | Lost 109-102 | Lost / Over |
| Aug 21, 2026 | @Dallas Wings | -6.5 / 187.5 | Lost 91-85 | Lost / Under |
| Aug 18, 2026 | @Toronto Tempo | -15.5 / 187.5 | Won 95-101 | Lost / Over |
| Aug 16, 2026 | @Atlanta Dream | -5.5 / 189.5 | Won 91-95 | Lost / Under |
| Aug 14, 2026 | Dallas Wings | -7.5 / 171.5 | Won 98-87 | Won / Over |
Showing 10 of last 10 meetings
| DATE | TEAM | OPP | CLOSE | RESULT | ATS/OU |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 23, 2026 | Indiana Fever | @Minnesota Lynx | -6.5 / 190.5 | Won 96-77 | Won / Under |
| Aug 2, 2026 | Minnesota Lynx | @Indiana Fever | -7.5 / 209.5 | Won 108-100 | Won / Under |
| Sep 9, 2025 | Indiana Fever | @Minnesota Lynx | +1.5 / 164.5 | Won 83-72 | Won / Under |
| Aug 24, 2025 | Minnesota Lynx | @Indiana Fever | -11.5 / 167.5 | Won 97-84 | Won / Over |
| Aug 22, 2025 | Indiana Fever | @Minnesota Lynx | +4.5 / 164.5 | Lost 90-95 | Lost / Over |
| Jul 2, 2025 | Minnesota Lynx | @Indiana Fever | -10.5 / 159.5 | Lost 59-74 | Lost / Under |
| Sep 6, 2024 | Indiana Fever | @Minnesota Lynx | +2.5 / 169.5 | Lost 88-99 | Lost / Over |
| Aug 25, 2024 | Minnesota Lynx | @Indiana Fever | -4.5 / 167.5 | Won 90-80 | Won / Over |
| Jul 14, 2024 | Minnesota Lynx | @Indiana Fever | -4.5 / 164.5 | Lost 74-81 | Lost / Under |
| Sep 10, 2023 | Indiana Fever | @Minnesota Lynx | +2.5 / 164 | Won 87-72 | Won / Under |
Why Indiana Has the Edge Heading Into the Finale
Kelsey Mitchell is averaging 25.1 points a game this season on a scorching 51.5% from the field, and she’s now strung together weeks of 20-plus point nights while chasing the franchise scoring record. Clark’s all-around game — 22.7 points, 8.4 assists, and a knack for controlling tempo — makes Indiana’s offense (96.7 points per game, tops in the league) nearly impossible to slow down when both stars are clicking in the same game, which is exactly what happened at Gainbridge Fieldhouse.
Minnesota’s counter has always been Napheesa Collier and its defense, which ranks among the league’s stingiest at 83.8 points allowed per game. But Collier is still working back from offseason ankle surgery and is averaging 18.0 points, down from her 22.9 mark a year ago, and the Lynx clearly missed Olivia Miles’ scoring punch and playmaking in the loss. Miles has been Minnesota’s best player for stretches of September, and her health for the finale matters more than almost anything else on this card.
Minnesota was outscored 57-44 in the middle two quarters alone, the stretch where the Lynx usually wear teams down.
That’s the alarming part for Minnesota. This isn’t a team that typically gets outworked in the paint or in transition, and Indiana did both. Liatu King gave the Lynx some spark off the bench with 12 points, but it wasn’t nearly enough offensive punch to match a Fever attack getting big performances from all three of Clark, Mitchell and Boston in the same night.
Prediction and Best Bet
The season series is now knotted at 1-1, and Minnesota’s magic number for the No. 1 seed just got tighter with Golden State lurking. Indiana carries real momentum and a healthy roster into the rematch, while the Lynx need Miles back on the floor to have a real shot at controlling this one. Expect a tighter, more competitive game than the first meeting, but Indiana’s stars are peaking at the right time.
The pick:
- Prediction: Indiana Fever 90, Minnesota Lynx 85
- Best Bet: Indiana Fever on the moneyline
Backing the hotter team with the healthier roster is the safer side here, especially with Minnesota’s frontcourt questions still unresolved.
