Dallas has already clinched this series — Monday night in the desert is about pride, reps, and whether Phoenix can avoid a sweep in front of its own fans.
Quick take:
- Pick: Dallas Wings moneyline
- Why: The Wings have already beaten this Mercury roster twice in four days and get it a third time without Kahleah Copper at full strength
- The number to watch: Paige Bueckers is averaging 20.6 points a game on 50.9% shooting this season, and she scored 20 of her 26 in the first half alone in Game 2
The Wings (26-16) wrapped up their best-of-three first-round series against the Mercury (15-27) with wins in Games 1 and 2, both at home in Arlington — an 85-70 decision followed by an 87-82 nail-biter on Saturday. That means Game 3 at Mortgage Matchup Center is technically unnecessary for the series outcome, but it still counts, and Dallas has ripped off six straight wins overall heading into it.
Phoenix, meanwhile, is playing out the string in a season that’s included a trade-deadline addition of Kelsey Plum (since lost for the year to a lower-leg injury) and a Copper-led offense that’s had to carry more than it should. This is as close to a formality as the WNBA playoffs get, but formality games have a way of getting weird when one team has nothing left to play for.
Why the Line Still Favors Dallas Even in a Dead Rubber
Books have installed the Wings as clear favorites again, and it’s not just series momentum driving that number. Dallas is 16-6 at home and has now beaten this exact Mercury roster in three of their four meetings this year, dating back to an 85-70 win in the first matchup back in June. The market isn’t pricing in much motivation drop-off from a team that’s won six in a row and has its best player locked in. Bettors weighing this one can check the latest betting odds before tip-off to see how the number has moved.
| Monday, September 21 at 10:00 PM | Spread | Money | Total |
| Dallas Wings | 
-6.5 (-106) | 
-218 | 
O 171.5 (-110) |
| Phoenix Mercury |
+6.5 (-118) | 
+190 |
U 171.5 (-110) |
Recent Form
The head-to-head history and recent form below tell most of the story here — Dallas has simply had Phoenix’s number all series, and the absence of Copper compounds it.
| DATE | OPP | CLOSE | RESULT | ATS/OU |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 19, 2026 | Phoenix Mercury | -8.5 / 172.5 | Won 87-82 | Lost / Under |
| Sep 18, 2026 | Los Angeles Sparks | -7.5 / 188.5 | Won 97-77 | Won / Under |
| Aug 31, 2026 | Connecticut Sun | -17.5 / 180.5 | Won 97-71 | Won / Under |
| Aug 26, 2026 | Portland Fire | -13.5 / 175.5 | Won 96-78 | Won / Under |
| Aug 23, 2026 | Seattle Storm | -15.5 / 174.5 | Won 92-70 | Won / Under |
| Aug 21, 2026 | Indiana Fever | +6.5 / 187.5 | Won 91-85 | Won / Under |
| Aug 18, 2026 | @Golden State Valkyries | +17.5 / 155.5 | Lost 78-70 | Won / Under |
| Aug 18, 2026 | @Golden State Valkyries | +6.5 / 163.5 | Lost 78-70 | Lost / Under |
| Aug 14, 2026 | @Indiana Fever | +7.5 / 171.5 | Lost 98-87 | Lost / Over |
| Aug 13, 2026 | Toronto Tempo | -11.5 / 184.5 | Won 94-88 | Lost / Under |
| DATE | OPP | CLOSE | RESULT | ATS/OU |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 19, 2026 | @Dallas Wings | +8.5 / 172.5 | Lost 87-82 | Won / Under |
| Sep 18, 2026 | @Portland Fire | -6.5 / 180.5 | Won 91-94 | Lost / Over |
| Aug 30, 2026 | Toronto Tempo | -12.5 / 167.5 | Won 101-69 | Won / Over |
| Aug 28, 2026 | Washington Mystics | +2.5 / 161.5 | Lost 84-94 | Lost / Over |
| Aug 28, 2026 | Washington Mystics | +2.5 / 161.5 | Lost 73-80 | Lost / Under |
| Aug 26, 2026 | Washington Mystics | +1.5 / 170.5 | Lost 84-94 | Lost / Over |
| Aug 23, 2026 | Atlanta Dream | +12.5 / 179.5 | Lost 89-99 | Won / Over |
| Aug 16, 2026 | Portland Fire | -6.5 / 180.5 | Lost 85-88 | Lost / Under |
| Aug 12, 2026 | @Los Angeles Sparks | -2.5 / 185.5 | Won 87-94 | Won / Under |
| Aug 9, 2026 | @Washington Mystics | +4.5 / 170.5 | Lost 95-75 | Lost / Under |
Showing 10 of last 10 meetings
| DATE | TEAM | OPP | CLOSE | RESULT | ATS/OU |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 19, 2026 | Dallas Wings | @Phoenix Mercury | -8.5 / 172.5 | Won 87-82 | Lost / Under |
| Jun 12, 2026 | Dallas Wings | @Phoenix Mercury | -6.5 / 169.5 | Won 85-70 | Won / Under |
| Sep 12, 2025 | Dallas Wings | @Phoenix Mercury | +5.5 / 168.5 | Won 97-76 | Won / Over |
| Jul 8, 2025 | Phoenix Mercury | @Dallas Wings | -5.5 / 163.5 | Won 102-72 | Won / Over |
| Jul 4, 2025 | Dallas Wings | @Phoenix Mercury | +11.5 / 165.5 | Won 98-89 | Won / Over |
| Jun 12, 2025 | Phoenix Mercury | @Dallas Wings | -6.5 / 167.5 | Won 93-80 | Won / Over |
| Jul 10, 2024 | Phoenix Mercury | @Dallas Wings | -7.5 / 172.5 | Won 100-84 | Won / Over |
| Jul 4, 2024 | Dallas Wings | @Phoenix Mercury | +5.5 / 172.5 | Lost 96-104 | Lost / Over |
| Jun 9, 2024 | Dallas Wings | @Phoenix Mercury | +1.5 / 163.5 | Lost 90-97 | Lost / Over |
| May 26, 2024 | Phoenix Mercury | @Dallas Wings | -4.5 / 168.5 | Lost 92-107 | Lost / Over |
Copper’s Absence Changes Everything for Phoenix
Kahleah Copper has been one of the best scorers in the league this season — 21.3 points per game, a career-best mark for volume — but she sat out Game 2 with a groin injury and remains day-to-day. Without her, Phoenix’s offense loses its clearest shot-creator, and a roster already thin after losing Plum for the season doesn’t have an obvious answer to replace 21-plus points a night.
On the other side, Bueckers has been the best player in this series by a wide margin. She dropped 20 of her 26 points in the first half of Game 2 alone, and she’s shooting a blistering 39.9% from three on the year to go with career-level efficiency at 50.9% from the field overall. Arike Ogunbowale has been the perfect complement, adding 22 points and six assists in that same Game 2 win, giving Dallas a proven closer alongside its rising star.
Dallas has outscored Phoenix by a combined 20 points across the first two games of this series.
That kind of margin, especially with Copper compromised, suggests this Game 3 is less about who wins the series — that’s settled — and more about whether Dallas can keep its foot down on the road. Teams occasionally let up in dead-rubber road games, but a six-game winning streak isn’t the profile of a team looking to coast.
Dallas will also be without forward Alanna Smith, who’s dealing with a lower-leg injury that kept her out of Game 2, thinning their frontcourt rotation slightly. Jessica Shepard and Awak Kuier have picked up the interior minutes in her absence, and it hasn’t mattered so far with Bueckers and Ogunbowale carrying the offensive load. There’s little reason to expect that to change against a shorthanded Phoenix squad on Monday.
Phoenix’s frontcourt situation is arguably worse. With Plum already lost for the season and Copper banged up, head coach Nate Tibbetts has been forced to lean on a rotation that simply doesn’t have the shot creation to hang with Dallas’s backcourt over 40 minutes. The Mercury did show some fight late in Game 2 — outscoring Dallas 18-19 combined in the fourth quarter — but digging out of an 18-point third-quarter hole in Game 1 and a tight fourth in Game 2 has left this roster running on fumes heading into a third game in five days.
Prediction and Best Bet
Dallas has been the better team in every meeting this season, and the injury report only widens that gap further with Copper compromised for Phoenix. Expect the Wings to close out the sweep on the road behind another big night from Bueckers.
The pick:
- Prediction: Dallas Wings 84, Phoenix Mercury 76
- Best Bet: Dallas Wings on the moneyline
With the series already decided and Phoenix down its top scorer, backing Dallas to finish the sweep is the safest read on the board tonight.
