Scottie Scheffler is the chalk everyone will roster at TPC Southwind, but the real edge in the FedEx St. Jude Championship lineup pool lives with the mid-tier ball-strikers who fit this tight, tree-lined course better than their salary suggests.
Quick take:
- Top play: Collin Morikawa
- Why: He ranks No. 1 in this field in SG: Approach and GIR percentage on small-green courses over the last 12 months, and TPC Southwind’s targets are exactly that.
- The number to watch: Scheffler leads the entire PGA Tour in SG: Total and SG: Tee-to-Green, with five runner-up finishes and 11 top-fives across 17 starts this season.
The opening leg of the FedExCup Playoffs brings the top 70 in points to Ron Prichard’s par-70, 7,288-yard design in Memphis, and this is about as stacked a field as fantasy golf sees all year — 19 of the top 20 players in the world are in Memphis this week. Small greens, tight tree-lined corridors and a $20 million purse mean accuracy off the tee and sharp iron play matter more here than raw distance, which reshapes who’s actually worth rostering versus who just looks good on the outright odds board.
That course profile is also why the defending champion angle carries real weight. Justin Rose won here a year ago at -16, and he’s the first player with a shot at back-to-back St. Jude titles since Ernie Els pulled it off in 1996-97. He’s priced as a value relative to that course form, not a star, which is exactly the kind of gap DFS lineups are built to exploit.
Chalk vs. Contrarian at TPC Southwind
Scheffler (+445 favorite per the live golf odds, FedExCup points leader all season) is going to be in the highest percentage of lineups by a wide margin, and the profile supports it — he’s gained the second-most strokes of anyone in the field at this course, with back-to-back top-4 finishes here and four top-15s overall. But leaning on him as the automatic 1 in cash games ignores that he’s still chasing his first signature multi-win season; one trophy so far despite five runner-ups. Pair him with a differentiator rather than doubling up on the true chalk.
Rory McIlroy will also draw attention purely on name value, and that’s the fade. He’s coming off a light stretch — nothing since the British Open in July — and finished near last in his most recent TPC Southwind start in 2024. Save the roster spot for someone actually trending up.
Sleepers and Value Plays
The value tier at TPC Southwind rewards players who hit fairways and stick greens, not bombers. These three fit that mold and carry real recent-form momentum into Memphis.
Tommy Fleetwood (+1950 outright) is the steadiest click in the field right now — consistent ball-striking and a real course history edge make him a top-of-the-value-range target rather than a pure chalk play. Sam Burns (+2000) is red-hot entering the week and has already proven he can win in Memphis, giving him serious lineup-winning upside without forcing a top-tier salary commitment. Hideki Matsuyama (+3300), the 2024 champion, has the single best course-history number in the entire field — he’s gained more strokes at TPC Southwind than anyone else here — and he’s playing well enough right now to be more than a nostalgia pick.
Why Course Fit Beats the Odds Board This Week
Morikawa’s approach numbers on small-green setups are the single most predictive stat for this specific course, which is why he’s the top play here even sitting behind names like Scheffler and McIlroy on the outright market. Russell Henley (+4000) profiles similarly — elite iron play, four career top-4s at this course including a T-3 last year — and neither is drawing the attention his ball-striking earns him.
Scheffler has gained the second-most career strokes of any player at TPC Southwind, but Matsuyama has gained the most of anyone in the field.
That gap matters for lineup construction. When the two best course-history profiles in the field are priced apart on the outright board the way Scheffler and Matsuyama are, the smart play in GPP formats is fading the popular name and building around the proven course fit instead. It’s a small edge. But small edges are how DFS lineups separate from the pack in a 156-man field this deep.
Justin Thomas (+4200) rounds out the tier worth knowing about — a former FedExCup Playoffs performer who’s shown flashes of the ball-striking that made him a fixture at this event in years past. He’s not this week’s headline value, but he’s the kind of name that can spike a lineup if the putter shows up.
This Week’s Lineup Picks
Build around ball-strikers who fit small greens and tight fairways over pure name value, and use the outright favorites sparingly rather than stacking two or three of them in the same lineup.
- Top play: Collin Morikawa
- Value play: Tommy Fleetwood
- Sleeper: Hideki Matsuyama
TPC Southwind rewards precision over power, and this week’s best lineups will look a lot more like a strokes-gained leaderboard than a betting-odds leaderboard.
