Dodgers vs. Cubs Prediction: Chicago Looks to Complete the Sweep at Wrigley

The Dodgers have lost two straight to the Cubs at Wrigley Field this week, and now they need Eric Lauer to stop the bleeding against a Chicago team playing its best baseball of the summer.

Quick take:

• Pick: Cubs +162 on the moneyline
• Why: Chicago has won eight of ten and just beat this same L.A. rotation twice in a row on their own turf
• The number to watch: Shota Imanaga’s 3.67 ERA and 8.39 K/9 against a Dodgers lineup that’s cooled off since the trade deadline

Los Angeles rolls into the finale of this series at 69-44, still comfortably in first place in the NL West, but the last 48 hours in Chicago have been ugly. The Cubs (64-49) took both games of this set, including a 10-5 slugfest on Tuesday where Michael Busch drove in three runs and Chicago’s bullpen held up just enough down the stretch. Wrigley Field on getaway day has quietly become a trap game for a Dodgers team that’s used to steamrolling the middle of the league.

Chicago has been the better team over the last two weeks, period. The Cubs are 8-2 in their last ten and sit second in the NL Central at .565, just a game and a half back in the Wild Card picture, while the Dodgers have shown some cracks in a rotation that’s been without Tyler Glasnow, Blake Snell, and Landon Knack for extended stretches this season.

Why Vegas Still Trusts L.A. Despite the Skid

The moneyline on this one has moved around depending on the book, but the Dodgers are largely favored at around -196 with Chicago sitting near +162, and the total is hovering at 8.5-9.5 runs — a number that reflects two shaky bullpens more than two shutdown rotations. That gap between the record on paper and the recent results on the field is exactly where the value sits.

Wednesday, August 5 at 2:21 PM	Spread	Money	Total
Los Angeles Dodgers	+1.5 (-194)	+110	O 9.5 (-105)
Chicago Cubs	+1.5 (-205)	-117	U 9.5 (-115)

Recent Form

The head-to-head data below only scratches the surface, but the eye test from this series says plenty: Chicago has out-hit and out-pitched the sport’s most talented roster twice running.

Showing 10 of last 10 meetings

Lauer’s Command Problem Meets an Imanaga in Rhythm

Eric Lauer takes the ball for Los Angeles carrying a 6-5 record and a 4.50 ERA, numbers that undersell how inconsistent he’s been start to start. Shota Imanaga, on the other hand, has been steady all year at 7-9 with a 3.67 ERA and a strikeout rate (8.39 K/9) that plays well against a Dodgers lineup that’s chasing more than it should lately. Kyle Tucker, brought in to be a middle-of-the-order force, is hitting just .244 with a .716 OPS on the season and has cooled further in his last 30 games, going 26-for-103 with only two home runs.

Freddie Freeman remains the engine of this offense — a .292 average, 15 homers, and a .381 wOBA make him one of the few Dodgers hitters producing at an MVP-caliber clip all year. Mookie Betts has had a quieter year by his standards, batting .236 with an OPS under .750, and both stars went a combined 0-for-6 with three flyouts in Tuesday’s loss.

Chicago has scored 469 runs as a team this year, fourth-most in baseball, while the Cubs bullpen has been good enough behind Imanaga to close out exactly these kinds of games.

That combination — an offense that keeps grinding and a starter who limits hard contact — is why Chicago has been live in this series even against a Dodgers team most bettors assume wins by default. Pete Crow-Armstrong has been a factor in the outfield all week defensively, and his speed on the bases adds another wrinkle L.A.’s infield has to defend.

The Dodgers’ bullpen is still without Blake Treinen and Edwin Díaz, both key relief arms lost to injury for extended stretches, which matters plenty in a game that projects to go over 8.5 runs. If this one turns into a bullpen game in the seventh or eighth inning, that’s a spot where Chicago has the fresher, healthier group of arms. Bettors weighing sportsbook promo codes before first pitch should note the total here has been climbing all week for exactly that reason.

Prediction and Best Bet

The Dodgers are still the more talented team on paper, and Freeman gives them a real chance to snap this mini-skid. But Chicago has earned the benefit of the doubt this week, and Imanaga is the more trustworthy arm on the mound today. Take the home team to complete the sweep.

The pick:

1. Prediction: Chicago Cubs 6, Los Angeles Dodgers 4
2. Best Bet: Cubs on the moneyline

Chicago’s bats have shown up in back-to-back games against this rotation, and there’s no reason to think that changes with their best starter on the mound.