Dallas is riding a six-game winning streak and rolling out the WNBA’s most dangerous backcourt star in Paige Bueckers, while Connecticut arrives having dropped its last few and sitting at the bottom of the East — this one has blowout written all over it unless the Sun can find something they haven’t shown in weeks.
Quick take:
- Pick: Dallas Wings -10.5
- Why: Dallas is playing its best basketball of the season at home against a Connecticut team that’s lost far more than it’s won
- The number to watch: Paige Bueckers’ 19.8 points and 5.8 assists per game
Connecticut heads into College Park Center with a 7-22 record, good for seventh in the East, while Dallas sits fourth in the West at 18-10 and has won six straight. The two sides split earlier meetings this season, with Connecticut actually taking the first matchup back on July 2, an 86-83 win in Connecticut. Dallas has been the far better team since, and Sunday’s rematch comes with the Wings fresh off hosting Washington and gearing up for a home date that airs nationally.
The Sun have had stretches of competitive basketball this year but haven’t been able to string wins together, and their road/away splits have been especially rough. Dallas, on the other hand, has turned College Park Center into one of the tougher venues in the league during this stretch, riding contributions up and down the roster behind Bueckers.
The Line Tells the Story Here
Books have Dallas as heavy favorites, with the spread sitting around -10.5 and the moneyline in the -575 to -593 range depending on the book, implying an 85%-plus win probability for the Wings. Connecticut is priced up near +375 to +410 on the moneyline. The total sits in the low-to-mid 170s, with Dallas projected for the lion’s share of the scoring in a game that looks lopsided on paper across every number that matters.
| Sunday, August 2 at 7:00 PM | Spread | Money | Total |
| Connecticut Sun | 
+11.5 (-113) | 
+430 |
O 174.5 (-113) |
| Dallas Wings |
-11.5 (-110) | 
-550 |
U 173.5 (-110) |
Recent Form
The gap between these two teams over the last month has been stark — Dallas has been building momentum while Connecticut has struggled to find consistent scoring punch. Here’s how both sides stack up, along with their head-to-head history this season.
| DATE | OPP | CLOSE | RESULT | ATS/OU |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jul 31, 2026 | @Chicago Sky | +4.5 / 179.5 | Lost 94-88 | Lost / Over |
| Jul 28, 2026 | @Washington Mystics | +4.5 / 183.5 | Lost 92-84 | Lost / Under |
| Jul 23, 2026 | @Indiana Fever | +12.5 / 185.5 | Lost 123-88 | Lost / Over |
| Jul 19, 2026 | @Phoenix Mercury | +5.5 / 159.5 | Won 83-96 | Won / Over |
| Jul 19, 2026 | @Phoenix Mercury | +5.5 / 159.5 | Lost 72-63 | Lost / Under |
| Jul 18, 2026 | @Phoenix Mercury | +3.5 / 163.5 | Won 83-96 | Won / Over |
| Jul 14, 2026 | Portland Fire | -2.5 / 166.5 | Won 90-87 | Won / Over |
| Jul 10, 2026 | Golden State Valkyries | +5.5 / 153.5 | Lost 64-79 | Lost / Under |
| Jul 8, 2026 | Minnesota Lynx | +7.5 / 165.5 | Lost 80-86 | Won / Over |
| Jul 7, 2026 | @Minnesota Lynx | +11.5 / 165.5 | Won 89-90 | Won / Over |
| DATE | OPP | CLOSE | RESULT | ATS/OU |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jul 31, 2026 | @Washington Mystics | +4.5 / 163.5 | Lost 81-75 | Lost / Under |
| Jul 30, 2026 | Atlanta Dream | -3.5 / 179.5 | Lost 81-82 | Lost / Under |
| Jul 23, 2026 | @Portland Fire | -3.5 / 172.5 | Won 97-101 | Won / Over |
| Jul 21, 2026 | New York Liberty | +7.5 / 178.5 | Lost 98-99 | Won / Over |
| Jul 19, 2026 | Los Angeles Sparks | -9.5 / 177.5 | Won 90-82 | Lost / Under |
| Jul 12, 2026 | Chicago Sky | -9.5 / 176.5 | Won 96-91 | Lost / Over |
| Jul 10, 2026 | @Toronto Tempo | -7.5 / 178.5 | Won 95-108 | Won / Over |
| Jul 8, 2026 | @New York Liberty | +4.5 / 175.5 | Won 77-88 | Won / Under |
| Jul 5, 2026 | @Toronto Tempo | -6.5 / 185.5 | Won 76-89 | Won / Under |
| Jul 3, 2026 | @Connecticut Sun | -6.5 / 171.5 | Won 83-86 | Lost / Under |
Showing 10 of last 10 meetings
| DATE | TEAM | OPP | CLOSE | RESULT | ATS/OU |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jul 3, 2026 | Connecticut Sun | @Dallas Wings | +6.5 / 171.5 | Lost 83-86 | Won / Under |
| Aug 28, 2025 | Dallas Wings | @Connecticut Sun | +2.5 / 165.5 | Lost 95-101 | Lost / Over |
| Jun 20, 2025 | Connecticut Sun | @Dallas Wings | +4.5 / 164.5 | Lost 83-86 | Won / Over |
| May 27, 2025 | Connecticut Sun | @Dallas Wings | +4.5 / 163.5 | Lost 87-109 | Lost / Over |
| Aug 17, 2024 | Dallas Wings | @Connecticut Sun | +5.5 / 161.5 | Lost 91-109 | Lost / Over |
| Jun 15, 2024 | Dallas Wings | @Connecticut Sun | +6.5 / 157.5 | Lost 67-85 | Lost / Under |
| May 31, 2024 | Connecticut Sun | @Dallas Wings | -8.5 / 162.5 | Won 74-72 | Lost / Under |
| Aug 18, 2023 | Connecticut Sun | @Dallas Wings | -4.5 / 168.5 | Lost 75-95 | Lost / Over |
| Aug 13, 2023 | Dallas Wings | @Connecticut Sun | -2.5 / 168.5 | Won 91-81 | Won / Over |
| Jul 26, 2023 | Dallas Wings | @Connecticut Sun | -3.5 / 168.5 | Lost 83-88 | Lost / Over |
Bueckers and Morrow Headline a Mismatch
Paige Bueckers has been one of the best players in the league in her rookie campaign, averaging 19.8 points, 3.6 rebounds and 5.8 assists per game, and she’s shown no signs of slowing down as Dallas has surged. She’s third in the WNBA in 20-point games this season, and with Arike Ogunbowale and Jessica Shepard also producing consistently, the Wings can beat teams multiple ways.
Connecticut’s answer is Aneesah Morrow, who has quietly put together a strong rookie season of her own — 12.0 points and 10.5 rebounds a night, doing the dirty work on the glass even as the Sun have struggled to keep games competitive. Saniya Rivers has also chipped in as a secondary playmaker, but the roster simply lacks the firepower to match Dallas possession for possession.
Dallas has won six straight games and enters Sunday as an 85% moneyline favorite according to the betting markets.
That kind of gap rarely closes overnight, especially against a team the Wings have already shown they can beat this season. Connecticut’s lone win in the season series came on their home floor; this time, on Dallas’ turf, the math looks even more lopsided.
Fans looking to get a read on the game in real time can check live odds tracking throughout the day, and bettors comparing markets should look at live betting odds for the latest number movement before tip-off.
Prediction and Best Bet
Dallas’ size, depth, and the Bueckers factor make this a tough spot for a Connecticut team still searching for answers on both ends. The Wings should control the pace and pull away in the second half.
The pick:
- Prediction: Dallas Wings 89, Connecticut Sun 74
- Best Bet: Dallas Wings -10.5
Barring a major injury change to Bueckers, this is Dallas’ game to lose, and the home crowd should be riding a wave all night at College Park Center.
