New York Liberty vs. Phoenix Mercury Prediction: Picks, Odds for August 1

The Liberty are the WNBA’s best team without their best facilitator, and the Mercury are hot enough to make that matter.

Quick take:

• Pick: New York Liberty -2.5
• Why: Even without Sabrina Ionescu, New York’s size and depth overwhelm a Phoenix team still leaking points defensively
• The number to watch: Breanna Stewart’s 21.5 points and 8.5 rebounds per game against a Mercury frontcourt that’s been vulnerable inside all season

New York heads into the desert sitting near the top of the Eastern Conference, while Phoenix is fighting to stay relevant in the West’s lower tier. But the Mercury aren’t limping into this one — they just knocked off Golden State on their home floor, and Kahleah Copper has been one of the hottest scorers in the league over the last month.

This one tips off at 3 p.m. ET at Mortgage Matchup Center, and it’s the third meeting between these two clubs this season. The first two both went New York’s way, but neither of those games happened with the Liberty missing their starting point guard, and neither happened with Phoenix playing the kind of basketball it’s shown over its last several outings. That context is exactly why this line is closer than a simple record comparison would suggest.

Why the Number Says Liberty, But Not by Much

Books have New York as short favorites here, with the spread sitting at -2.5 and the moneyline in the -128 to -140 range depending on the book, while the total has settled in the mid-170s. That’s a tighter line than the Liberty’s overall record might suggest, and it reflects two things: Phoenix playing well lately, and New York dealing with a notable absence in the backcourt. The market isn’t dismissing the Mercury at home, and recent form backs that caution up.

Saturday, August 1 at 3:00 PM	Spread	Money	Total
New York Liberty	-3.5 (100)	-148	O 177.5 (-105)
Phoenix Mercury	+3.5 (-120)	+140	U 176.5 (-109)

Recent Form

Both teams have been streaky over their last stretch of games, but the underlying numbers tell different stories about where each team’s strength is coming from.

Showing 10 of last 10 meetings

The Ionescu Absence Changes the Math

Sabrina Ionescu has been ruled out for this game with a back issue, and that’s not a minor loss — she’s averaged 19.7 points over her last 10 games and is New York’s primary shot creator when Stewart draws extra attention. Without her, the Liberty lean even harder on Stewart, who’s putting up 21.5 points, 8.5 rebounds, 3.1 assists and 1.5 blocks per game this season. New York dropped its last outing 104-99 to Las Vegas, a game where the offense bogged down in stretches, and that’s the version of this team Phoenix will be hoping to see again.

Phoenix, meanwhile, is playing its best basketball of the second half. Alyssa Thomas has quietly been the engine of this Mercury resurgence — she’s dishing 8.4 assists per game to lead the team, and in the win over Golden State she posted a near triple-double with 25 points, nine rebounds, eight assists and three steals. Kahleah Copper has been the closer, scoring at a 22.6 points-per-game clip over her last 10 outings and hitting 27 in that same win over the Warriors.

New York has won both meetings between these two teams this season, including a 75-68 win in Phoenix back in May.

That history matters, but it came before the Ionescu injury and before Phoenix hit its current stride. Thomas and Copper together give the Mercury a two-way problem for any defense — Thomas facilitates and defends, Copper scores in bunches — and this version of Phoenix looks different from the one New York beat in the spring. Still, depth matters over 40 minutes, and New York’s is deeper.

New York’s frontcourt is the equalizer. Jonquel Jones has been a steady rebounding presence all year, and with Ionescu sidelined, the Liberty need Stewart and Jones to control the glass and limit Phoenix’s second-chance opportunities — an area where the Mercury have quietly improved. Natasha Mack has given Phoenix real interior physicality this season, but New York’s combination of size and shooting depth off the bench should be enough to wear down a Mercury team that’s thinner in reserves once Thomas and Copper need a breather.

Don’t sleep on the pace of this one, either. Phoenix has shown it can play up-tempo when Thomas is pushing the ball, and New York’s transition defense without its top perimeter defender in Ionescu could be tested more than usual. If the Mercury can turn this into a track meet, the home crowd stays in it deep into the fourth. If New York can slow it down and win the half-court battle, the Liberty’s size takes over.

Prediction and Best Bet

New York’s size advantage on the boards and Stewart’s two-way dominance should be enough to get past a Phoenix team that’s better than its record but still prone to letting games slip in the fourth quarter. Expect a competitive first three quarters before New York’s depth shows up late.

The pick:

1. Prediction: New York Liberty 84, Phoenix Mercury 78
2. Best Bet: New York Liberty -2.5

Take the Liberty to cover, but keep the total in mind too — with Copper and Thomas both rolling, this game has more scoring punch than the raw records suggest. For more live betting odds across every sport, check our odds hub before locking in your bet.