Oilers vs Penguins Prediction — McDavid’s Momentum Meets Penguins’ Slide

The Edmonton Oilers and Pittsburgh Penguins face off tonight at PPG Paints Arena in a game that pits 2 teams heading in very different directions. Edmonton is surging with a 6-3-1 stretch and an offense that is absolutely firing on all cylinders, while Pittsburgh is coming in on a very frustrating 5-game losing streak, clinging to the playoff picture in the Metro.

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This game marks the 1st meeting between these 2 teams this season, and it really couldn’t come at a more pivotal time for Pittsburgh. They’re trying to do anything they can to stop the bleeding, while Edmonton is hunting for consistency on the road and trying to gain some ground in the Pacific.

Game Details, Odds, and Team Situations

The puck drops at 7:30 p.m. EST in Pittsburgh, where the Penguins hold a 6-5-5 home record. That’s not a great record at home, but it gives them a glimmer of hope. Bookmakers have the Oilers favored at -142 on the moneyline, with the Penguins at +120. The total is set at 6.5 goals, shaded slightly toward the over.

Edmonton comes in with a 15-12-6 record, sitting just 4th in the Pacific Division with 36 points, which is well within striking distance. Their road record is a bit shaky at 7-9-3, but recent play tells us they’re hopefully turning a corner. The Oilers just split a back-to-back, taking down Toronto before falling to Montreal on Sunday. Despite that loss, they’ve scored 4+ goals in 4 of their last 5 games.

Pittsburgh, now 14-8-9, is struggling at the worst possible time, and they need to do some triage. They’ve lost 5 in a row and 8 of their last 10 at home. Despite this, they still somehow managed points in 4 of those 5 recent losses thanks to overtime and shootout appearances, but that’s cold comfort for a team slipping fast in the standings. With Malkin sidelined and the offense out of sync, the Penguins have dropped to 5th in the Metro with 37 points.

Stats Breakdown, Goaltending Matchup, and Trends

Edmonton is scoring 3.33 GPG while giving up 3.39 GA/A, a stat that reflects both their offensive firepower and defensive inconsistency. Their power play, however, is nothing short of elite as it’s clicking at 30.6%, good for 3rd in the league. Led by Connor McDavid and Leon Draisaitl, the Oilers rank 4th in total goals and assists, and they’ve looked dangerous in nearly every game over the past 2 weeks. McDavid comes in with 52 points on the season, while Draisaitl has 26 assists and continues to be a driving force on special teams.

On the flip side, Pittsburgh is managing 3.19 GPG and allowing 2.94 GA/A. That defensive number is solid, thanks in large part to their insane 84% PK, which ranks 6th in the league. The Penguins are also 1st in power play efficiency at 32.1%, though it seems they’ve struggled to capitalize on it during their losing streak.

In the crease, Pittsburgh will likely turn to Stuart Skinner, who owns an 11-8-4 record with a 2.83 GAA and .891 SV%. Skinner has been inconsistent this season, but with the offense backing him, he’s managed to win some games. Tristan Jarry, now starting for Edmonton after being traded from the Pens, has been solid with a 2.69 GAA and .908 SV%. Jarry had a strong outing against Toronto before he left the Penguins, but now he faces his former teammates — players who know his tendencies well.

This game also marks a fascinating goalie swap showdown that you don’t see too often in the NHL. Jarry spent the season’s first half in Pittsburgh, while Skinner played in Edmonton. That familiarity adds a layer of intrigue.

Prediction and Best Bet

Edmonton is playing better hockey right now, and it’s not particularly close. They’ve scored 21 goals in their last 5 games, with McDavid continuing his red-hot pace. He has 38 points over his last 21 games and has recorded multiple points in 13 of those. He’s also been consistent in volume, putting up three or more shots in 21 of 33 games this season.

The Penguins, meanwhile, have been sliding hard since Evgeni Malkin went out with an upper-body injury, but they’ve managed to keep the games close. They’ve allowed 4+ goals in 4 of their last 5 games, and while Sidney Crosby continues to lead the way with 19 goals, the team lacks scoring depth. Bryan Rust and Jake Guentzel have definitely chipped in, but it hasn’t been enough to overcome the defensive lapses and penalty issues, and we think that tide turns tonight.

Edmonton has also owned this matchup lately, winning 7 of the last 8 against the Penguins. That includes solid showings at PPG Paints Arena, where the Oilers have covered the puck line in 4 straight games following a road loss. But this is a new season with different faces.

The X-factor is that the Pens have the edge in special teams percentages, and though that hasn’t translated to wins lately, it can, and it’s due. They’ve blown leads in the 3rd period and are tied for the most losses in the league when leading or tied after 2 periods. They know this, and you can bet they’re adjusting to overcome this problem.

The biggest upside to Pittsburgh’s recent losses is that they haven’t all been blowouts — they’ve taken teams to overtime and shootouts — that means they’re just within grasp with a few adjustments.

Edmonton has the talent edge and the momentum, but Pittsburgh is backed into a corner. This game may not be a blowout, but the Penguins should find a way to take control of this one.

• Prediction: Penguins 5, Oilers 3
• Best Bet: Penguins Moneyline at +120

Chances are, this game could easily be another OT or SO, so leave the 60-minute line and puckline on the table. We like the odds, and we’re taking a chance on this, but the Penguins get the 2 points in the end.