Florida Panthers vs Tampa Bay Lightning Prediction — Vasilevskiy the Difference in Round 2

The Florida Panthers are heading to Tampa Bay for a Monday night battle on the ice with the Lightning in a rematch of a 3-1 Tampa win back in mid-November. Both teams are undeniably coming in hot, sitting in the thick of a tight Atlantic Division race. But with key differences in structure, goaltending, and discipline, one side has the edge heading into this showdown.

Game Details, Odds & Where They Stand

This divisional clash takes place tonight at Amalie Arena, with puck drop set for 7:00 PM EST.

Tampa Bay sits atop the Atlantic Division at 18-11-3 with 39 points, while Florida is in 5th at 16-13-2 with 34 points, which just goes to show how tight this division is. It’s the 2nd of 4 meetings this season, with the Lightning leading the series 1-0 after a 3-1 win in Sunrise last month, and now the Panthers are looking to get back at them.

Tampa opened as a slight -130 favorite on the moneyline, with Florida +114 as the underdog. The total opened at 6.5 goals, shaded slightly to the under.

Given how these teams have been playing lately and how their first game finished, those are reasonable odds, but there’s a bit more to the odds than just that.

Recent Form & Team Trends

Florida’s most recent performance was a 4-0 shutout win over Dallas. That was arguably its best of the season, considering Dallas is one of the best teams in the NHL. Brad Marchand had 2 goals in that win, pushing his team-leading total to 18. But before that, they gave up 6 to Colorado and needed OT to beat Columbus. Obviously, consistency has been a problem for these Panthers.

Tampa, on the other hand, continues to find innovative ways to win in different styles. They smoked the Devils 8-4, edged out the Islanders in a shootout, and dominated Montreal 6-1. Nikita Kucherov, who has 13 goals and 29 helpers, and Brandon Hagel, with his 18 goals, lead an offense that’s both skilled and deep.

Over their last 10 games, the Lightning have outscored opponents 35-20. Florida also went 5-4-1 over their last 10, but it has allowed 32 goals in that span.

Head-to-Head Matchup

Tampa has already beaten Florida once this season, and they did it with structure and opportunistic scoring. In that game, they limited the Panthers to just a single goal despite Florida clearly outshooting them. The Lightning opened up the scoring in the 1st period, and in the 2nd, the Panthers responded. It stayed tight until the 3rd when Jack Finley found the back of the net, and then the 3rd goal was an empty-netter with around a minute left to play.

Tampa’s home-ice advantage is worth noting. They’ve gone 10-4-1 at home and play a disciplined, low-penalty style of hockey that pairs nicely with their top-tier PK unit. They allow fewer goals with a 2.56 GAA compared to Florida’s 3.16 GAA and get more consistent goaltending.

This game looks similar on paper to the first meeting, which is a tight, physical, and decided by special teams and netminding.

Team Comparison & Key Stats

Both of these teams are fairly solid, but when you start drilling down, it’s clear that the Lightning holds quite an advantage over the Panthers.

• Offense. Tampa ranks 9th in goals with 104, with an 11.7% shooting percentage, which is 6th-best in the NHL. Florida sits middle-of-the-pack at 15th in goals with 97, with a lower 10.7% shooting clip.
• Power Play. Neither team is what we’d call dominant on the man advantage — Florida at 18.7% is slightly ahead of Tampa at 18.2% — but it’s a small edge nonetheless. Tampa has been better at converting chances recently.
• Defense. This is where the gap really widens. The Lightning allowed just 2.56 GA/G, 4th-best in the league, compared to Florida’s 3.16 GA/G. However, they also commit more penalties with 376 PIM compared to Florida’s 288, but their 85.4% penalty kill makes up for it.
• Goaltending. Andrei Vasilevskiy is the clear x-factor for tonight’s game. He boasts a .917 SV% and 2.31 GAA, while Sergei Bobrovsky sits at .886 SV% and 2.84 GAA. Daniil Tarasov, with his .903 SV%, is a solid backup but doesn’t move the needle much. Vasilevskiy gives Tampa a real edge, especially against a Florida team that has been prone to dry spells if Marchand doesn’t produce.

Players to Watch

If you’re looking for some NHL player props for the game, these are some of the players you’ll want to keep an eye on.

• Brad Marchand. He’s doing everything for the Panthers. He currently has 18 goals, 16 assists, and is a consistent threat at even strength. But he’ll need support, and Carter Verhaeghe and his 7 goals and 7 assists in the last 10 could help lighten the load.
• Nikita Kucherov. He’s the best playmaker in this game and sits with 42 points on the year. His chemistry with Hagel and control on the power play will be key to taking the 2nd game.
• Brandon Hagel. Quietly one of Tampa’s most efficient scorers. With 18 goals and 93 shots, he’s a volume shooter who doesn’t need much space to find the back of the net.
• Andrei Vasilevskiy. When the game tightens up, he’s clearly the biggest difference. Look no further than his shutout against the Islanders and calm presence even when outshot. He’s in the running for his 2nd Vezina trophy.

Prediction — Lightning Lock It Down

Tampa Bay is the more complete team, especially in this matchup.

They’ve got the better netminder, the more structured defense, and they play extremely well at home. Florida is dangerous, especially if they get going early, but Marchand can only do so much on his own without another game-breaker like Tkachuk in the lineup. The Panthers have also struggled in division play, where they sit at 2-4-0 while Tampa is 4-2-1.

Unless Florida finds a way to crack Vasilevskiy early and often, which is a tall order, they’ll be chasing this one.

• Prediction: Tampa Bay Lightning 4, Florida Panthers 2
• Best Bet: Tampa Bay Lightning -130 on the Moneyline

Tampa at home with the goaltending edge is worth the price. They’ve shown they can handle Florida’s attack and have the finishing talent to pull away in the 3rd period. The puckline at -1.5 is a bit riskier considering how they did in their last outing.