BYU vs Texas Tech Prediction — Big 12 Title Rematch Carries CFP Stakes

The Big 12 championship is here with Texas Tech looking great for a playoff bid and BYU hoping to crash the party and hopefully squeeze in for themselves. One team already handled this matchup a month ago —but this one feels a bit different.

Game Details and Odds

Saturday’s Big 12 title game in Arlington is a little more than just a championship — it’s a ticket puncher. #4 Texas Tech, sitting at 11-1, comes into today’s showdown as a near-lock for the College Football Playoff — win or lose. But #11 BYU, also at 11-1, could steal a spot if they pull off the upset against their biggest foe this season.

Kickoff is set for 11:00 AM this morning, and Texas Tech is a 12.5-point favorite, with the total hovering around 49.5 points. The Red Raiders absolutely dominated the earlier matchup 29-7 in Lubbock, but this one comes with higher stakes — and a healthier BYU squad — which makes this game a little different than before. Will the Cougars be able to overcome one of the best teams in the nation this time around?

How These Teams Stack Up

Texas Tech is taking the field red-hot, dominating its last 5 opponents by a combined score of 211-29, including a 49-0 thrashing of West Virginia. They’ve averaged 43.2 PPG, ranking 4th nationally, while allowing just 11.3 PPG, good for 4th in scoring defense. They’re firing on all cylinders as they have the entire season, except for that oddball loss to Arizona State in October.

Senior QB Behren Morton has quietly put together an efficient season with 2,428 yards, 20 TDs, and just 4 INTs, especially in the last 2 games, completing 76.5% of his passes. Sophomore running back Cameron Dickey has 1,023 yards and 13 TDs, which provides some more balance to the already punishing attack. Wideout Caleb Douglas leads with 823 receiving yards and 7 touchdowns.

Defensively, Tech is nothing short of elite. David Bailey has 12.5 sacks and is a nightmare off the edge, while Jacob Rodriguez has racked up 101 tackles. Their defense gives up just 258.9 YPG, 10th in the nation, and is especially stingy against the run, where they give up just 68.9 YPG, good for 3rd nationally.

BYU, on the other hand, has bounced back since the earlier loss. Their last 3 games: wins over TCU, Cincinnati, and UCF, averaging 37 PPG, and most importantly, LJ Martin is back.

Martin rushed for 405 yards and 6 TDs in the 3 games since recovering from the shoulder injury that limited him against Tech. With 1,229 yards and 11 TDs on the season, he’s the engine of BYU’s offense, and you can bet that the Cougars will look to him heavily throughout the game.

Quarterback Bear Bachmeier has thrown for 2,593 yards and 14 TDs, but can be turnover-prone under pressure, and against this team, you know there will be plenty of pressure. Against Tech earlier, he threw a TD pass but also contributed to 3 team turnovers.

BYU’s defense is solid, allowing just 17.8 PPG, ranking 26th nationally. Linebacker Jack Kelly has 9 sacks, and Faletau Satuala leads the secondary with 70 tackles. But they’ve shown cracks against top-tier offenses.

What Happened in the First Meeting?

Texas Tech beat BYU 29-7 on November 8, and it wasn’t even close. The Red Raiders scored on 6 of their 7 red zone trips, though 5 were field goals, while BYU had just 255 total yards, a season-low. The Cougars trailed 26-0 before finding the end zone halfway into the 4th quarter.

Martin’s injury was a massive factor, as without him at full strength, BYU couldn’t control tempo or convert 3rd downs. They went 3-of-14 on 3rd down and turned it over 3 times. Defensively, they held Tech to just a single touchdown in the red zone but got worn down by short fields and poor field position.

Jacob Rodriguez, Tech’s best linebacker, had a standout game with a pick and a fumble recovery.

Prediction — A Different Game, Same Result

There’s no denying BYU is playing better football now. They’ve won 3 straight, and LJ Martin’s return changes the dynamic. Bachmeier will have more help, and that alone should lead to a better showing than last time. Everything seems like it’s pointing to a closer game.

But Texas Tech hasn’t just been winning — they’ve been mauling teams left and right. Their defense doesn’t bend, and their offense is simply relentless. Morton is playing his cleanest football of the season, and their pass rush, led by Bailey, could force Bachmeier into trouble again and possibly see some more turnovers.

Tech’s ability to cash in on red zone trips — even if they’re not all touchdowns — keeps them in full control of the game from start to finish. They have the better QB, more explosive weapons, and a more disruptive defense.

We’re sure they’ll win the Big 12 Championship today, but the only question is whether they can cover the spread. A double-digit win seems likely, especially considering Tech won the earlier meeting by 22 and has since looked even more dangerous despite BYU improving a bit.

• Prediction: Texas Tech 34, BYU 17
• Best Bet: Texas Tech -12.5

The Red Raiders are simply the more complete team, and even the bookmakers are noticing that. With Martin back, BYU should hang around longer, but it just won’t be enough to get the job done. Tech’s edge on both lines, their ability to force turnovers, and their elite red zone efficiency will make the difference. Lay the points, cash the check, the Red Raiders are going to the CFP.

As for the total on this game, that’s a tough one to pick. Of all of the conference championships this weekend, 49.5 points is probably the most accurate of the group. Elite offenses with elite defenses, this one could go either way.