NFL Week 9 Anytime Touchdown Player Props for Sunday, November 2
As Mike and I talked about on our weekly NFL YouTube video, we can’t believe week 9 is already here, halfway through the season. That being said I have found two strong touchdown targets backed by both usage and matchup data!
This week we are diving into the Chargers/Titans and Bengals/Bears matchups. Both games should see scoring, which led me to focus on touchdown props in these games specifically. Let’s dive into them!
Kimani Vidal (LAC) Anytime Touchdown (-120) vs. Tennessee
Chargers running back Kimani Vidal has quickly carved out a consistent role for Los Angeles, especially after the loss of Hampton and particularly in the red zone. In his five games this season he has scored in two of them, with red zone looks in each but one game, the first one. Over his last three games he has had at least five red zone looks on the ground or through the air.
One key stat that I loved in this matchup was 3rd down conversion rate, 49% for Chargers to 30% for Titans. Why is this important? Because the Chargers should stay on the field a ton in this game, moving the ball however they please. They have one of the best passing games in the NFL when it is well oiled.
Their trio of Allen, McConkey, and Johnston will open this game up, and hopefully give Vidal multiple close red zone looks to punch one in. Tennessee ranks 30th allowing 3.5 touchdowns per game, dead last 32nd allowing 1.8 to running backs.
Ja’Marr Chase (CIN) Anytime Touchdown (-120) vs. Chicago
Ja’Marr Chase continues to eat targets and if he continues to get this many targets he may have to become a weekly play. Cashing in three of his last four games but coming off a game against the Jets in which he did not, he has accrued 19 and 23 targets, over his last two games.
Chase has 28 receptions in his last two weeks alone, without looking I bet that is more than half of the NFL receivers full seasons stats. 28 receptions on 42 targets are video game stuff and I don’t see it slowing down this week.
The Bears have been decent against the pass all season, and good against wide receivers, but Chase is the elite of the elite. This could be a game where his receptions and yards dip a bit, which I believe will put more focus on red zone targets and finding scores to keep this game close. The Bengals need Chase and Higgins to keep producing on the outside and I think they both can find the endzone in this game. Flacco is set to o35.5 pass attempts and 22.5 completions, both favored to go over while Cincy throws the ball 66% of the time and Chase has scored in three of his four home games this season!
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