College Football Best Bets Guide: Top Predictions for Week 6
Our college football insider is ready to roll with his 2 best bets for Week 6. Get all the betting info you need for October 4th in this piece. Best of luck, folks!
Iowa State Cyclones vs Cincinnati Bearcats
The Iowa State Cyclones are undefeated after 5 games and hold a #14 ranking as they head into Cincinnati this Saturday. They are coming off arguably their best win of the season last week over Arizona (39-14). Rocco Becht was efficient through the air, but his legs contributed the most when it mattered. He completed 14 of 20 passes for 240 yards but was a bulldozer in the red zone, where he ran for 3 of the Cyclones’ touchdowns.
In their 5 wins, they have held their opponents to just 26-68 on 3rd down, limited drives, and continually forced teams into punted or going for it on 4th down. That, combined with Rocco Becht’s veteran leadership and ability to limit the offense in terms of mistakes, has been what has led to this Cyclones successful start to the season.
After their opening 20-17 loss to Nebraska, the Bearcats have bounced back and gone 3-0 since. Their latest win came over a tough Kansas team on the road, where they had to fight hard to edge them 37-34. They led most of the game but found themselves down 4 after a Kansas touchdown with just 1:45 left in the game.
Brendan Sorsby led them to a game-winning touchdown drive that was capped off with a Tawee Walker 1-yard plunge. This not only marked their 3rd straight win, but also their 3rd straight game scoring over 30 points. While the offense seems to be clicking nicely, the defense is a bit worrisome as they have allowed 20 points to Bowling Green and now 34 points to Kansas.
This is a tough matchup, but we believe that Becht and the Cyclones are going to be able to go on the road here and score their 6th win of the season. This Bearcat defense just has not looked great against good opponents, and the Cyclones seemingly just bore teams to death to get wins. We think that will be the case once again here with Becht taking care of the ball, not forcing things, and squeaking out a win on the road.
Best Bet: Iowa State +1.5
Key Trends:
- ISU is 7-3 ATS in its last 10 games on the road.
- ISU is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games when playing as the underdog.
- Cin is 5-14 ATS in its last 19 games at home.
- Cin is 1-5 ATS in its last 6 games against an opponent in the Big 12
Miami Hurricanes vs Florida State Seminoles
The Miami Hurricanes hit the jackpot with Carson Beck transferring in from Georgia. He has fit in perfectly and has the Canes at 4-0 with 2 wins over ranked opponents and this matchup with rival FSU as the last ranked opponent left on their schedule. With the Canes likely to be favorites the rest of the way, they have a chance to run the table for the regular season and be a top pick to win the national championship.
However, they need to treat this game like a playoff game to keep those hopes alive. After defeating ND in the opener, the Canes have found ways to win over USF and most recently, over Florida last week. While Beck and the offense have done their part, the defense of the Canes has been uber impressive. They are allowing an average of just 7.3ppg over their last 3 games.
Florida State was riding high after their season opening win over then #8 Alabama but after cupcake wins over ETAMU and Kent St, the Noles found themselves in a tough one last week on the road in Virginia. It was a thrilling game, but the Noles fell short in overtime, losing 46-38. Tommy Castellanos struggled in the game and finished with 2 interceptions and a 50.9 QBR.
He did all he could with his legs and finished as the leading rusher for the Noles with 78 yards on 14 carries. They had held Alabama to just 87 rushing yards in their big opener win but could not keep the Virginia rushing attack in check as they allowed over 200 yards on the ground in the loss.
This could be a trap game for the Canes, but we are riding them once again here. They have had success with the ground game lately and finished with over 180 yards against Florida and over 200 against USF. We believe that mixed with Beck’s ability to make timely throws will be the difference in this game. That, and the Canes defense being near the top of the conference should prove to make things difficult for Castellanos once again this week.
Best Bet: Miami -4.5
Key Trends:
- Miami is 9-3 ATS in its last 12 games when playing on the road against Florida State.
- FSU is 1-6 ATS in its last 7 games against an opponent in the Coastal Division.
- FSU is 2-6 ATS in its last 8 games when playing at home against Miami-FL.
Bill Christy
Sports Betting Contributor
Bill is a high-volume sports bettor who runs his own sports investing business. He has an uncanny ability to find tons of mathematical edges on each day’s sports betting card. Bill covers all sports but his bread and butter is UFC, Golf, and College Hoops. Find him on X at @LarrysLocks2
