Chiefs vs Steelers: Three Player Prop Bets And Our Best Bet For Christmas Day

The NFL is kicking off a new tradition this Christmas as Netflix will carry NFL games for the first time. That’s where fans will find one of the more intriguing matchups of Week 17 when the Kansas City Chiefs (14-1) travel east to face the Pittsburgh Steelers (10-5) on Christmas Day.

Kansas City is in the driver’s seat for the AFC’s top playoff spot. The Chiefs have a two-game lead over the Buffalo Bills, and a win on Wednesday would secure home-field advantage throughout the playoffs for the defending Super Bowl champions.

Pittsburgh also has plenty to play for on Wednesday. The Steelers are looking to snap a two-game losing streak and win the AFC North’s crown for the first time since the 2020 NFL regular season.

Will the Steelers hold firm at home, or can Kansas City steal another game on the road? We’ll cover that and our three favorite player prop bets for this Christmas Day matchup. Looking for even more Christmas Day action? Check out our betting preview for Ravens at Texans.

Kansas City Chiefs QB Patrick Mahomes UNDER 255.5 Passing Yards

Kansas City quarterback Patrick Mahomes has not had his best season in 2024, but the Chiefs haven’t needed it to jump out to a 14-1 record. Instead, the 29-year-old has been a strong player who has risen to the occasion when needed this season.

Against the Steelers, bettors shouldn’t expect Mahomes to have his strongest outing. Pittsburgh has been among the league’s best against the passing attack this season. Take the under for Mahomes and read on for additional reasons why this is a strong bet.

Pittsburgh Steelers RB Najee Harris OVER 43.5 Rushing Yards

Pittsburgh has a two-headed monster at running back this season with Najee Harris and Jaylen Warren. Harris leads the team in carries this season and is tied for seventh in the NFL in that category. The former Alabama player also has 933 rushing yards and five touchdowns this season.

Harris has been quiet as of late, recording only 15 carries for 54 yards over the past two games. Against Kansas City, bettors should expect that statistic to change as teams are finding holes in the Chiefs’ run defense lately. Harris should lead the team this week in carries and surpass this player prop bet.

Kansas City Chiefs TE Travis Kelce OVER 45.5 Receiving Yards

After a slow start to the 2024 season, questions were swirling about future NFL Hall of Fame tight end Travis Kelce’s status in Kansas City’s offense. Kelce has answered those questions, logging 89 receptions for 739 yards and two touchdowns this season.

Kelce has been quiet in his past three games, catching 14 passes for 102 yards combined in those outings. Kansas City has relied heavily on their 2024 first-round pick Xavier Worthy to pace the offense in those outings, targeting him 22 times in the previous two contests alone.

Still, bettors should expect Kelce to exceed his player prop mark this week. Pittsburgh is allowing tight ends to have strong games against them with the Steelers surrendering more than 50 yards to players in this position in half their outings. Kelce should have a strong outing on Christmas Day.

Best Bet: Pittsburgh (+2.5)

The Chiefs are unquestionably one of the best teams in the NFL, especially with a healthy Mahomes. How healthy he’ll be for this matchup is the question. On Monday, Mahomes said he would be ready to go for this game after putting up strong numbers against the Houston Texans in their Week 16 win.

While Kansas City would love to close the door on the home-field advantage question with a week remaining in the season, expect Pittsburgh to claim this victory. The Steelers need it more, and Pittsburgh’s defense should have a strong outing against Mahomes on Christmas Day.