5 Fighter Prop Picks for UFC 314: Volkanovski vs. Lopes

UFC 314 is absolutely loaded from top to bottom and we’re excited to load up our bet slip for this one. With a featherweight title bout headlining and a mix of rising stars, former champs, and fan favorites filling out the card, tonight’s fight is going to be one of the better UFC events we’ve seen in a while.

With Alexander Volkanovski trying to reclaim gold, Paddy Pimblett facing his toughest test yet, and knockout artists littered throughout the main card, there’s no shortage of betting angles.

We’re breaking down 5 of the best UFC betting predictions for Saturday night, blending a little bit of value with some matchup insight. We’ve got some plus-money picks and a good mix of finishes and decisions — so whether you’re chasing knockouts or grinding out value to build your bankroll, there’s something here for you.

Paddy Pimblett To Win By Submission

• UFC Bet Odds: +215

Paddy Pimblett’s UFC game is built around pressure and grappling, and this matchup sets him up for another submission win.

He’s averaging a whopping 3.2 submission attempts per 15 minutes — that’s simply elite. On top of that, Chandler has shown susceptibility to getting caught when he engages in scrambles. Chandler’s 2-4 UFC record includes moments where he’s been overly aggressive, which could leave him exposed on the mat.

Chandler’s last win came nearly 2 years ago, and his cardio hasn’t looked great in the later rounds. If Pimblett weathers the early storm we think Chandler will lay on him, he’ll likely drag Chandler into deeper water and hunt the neck. He’s going to try to outlast him.

At over +200, we think this is a strong value bet given Pimblett’s style and Chandler’s recent track record.

Alexander Volkanovski To Win By Decision

• UFC Bet Odds: +200

Volkanovski is coming off a big KO loss, but at featherweight, he’s been nearly untouchable. In fact, he’s 13-0 in the UFC in this division. 

While Lopes is undoubtedly dangerous early in fights with his grappling and aggressive pace, Volkanovski’s fight IQ, cardio, and ability to adapt mid-fight give him a major edge over the course of 5 rounds.

Lopes has only gone past the 3rd round once in his UFC career, and that experience gap just might catch up with him. Volk isn’t likely to expose himself chasing a finish — especially after 2 KO losses in his last 3 fights. Instead, we expect a classic Volkanovski performance consisting of control, volume striking, and calculated risks.

If this goes the distance, and we think it will, his chances of winning skyrocket. We’ll take that +200 all day long for this fight.

Yair Rodriguez To Win By KO/TKO/DQ

• UFC Bet Odds: +330

Yair Rodriguez is one of the flashiest strikers in the UFC which makes this not only a great fight to watch but an even better one to throw a bet on. Plus, he’s got a great matchup here.

Patricio “Pitbull” Freire is a Bellator legend, but this is his UFC debut — at age 37 — against a younger, faster, more dynamic fighter. Yair throws with volume which sits at around 4.46 significant strikes per minute and that includes quite a bit of variety, and that unpredictability could overwhelm Freire.

Pitbull was just outpaced by Jeremy Kennedy in Bellator, and that doesn’t bode well here. Yair’s finishing ability is definitely underrated, and this is a great spot to catch Freire adjusting to UFC-level speed and movement.

At over 3-to-1 odds, it’s a worthwhile shot we’re going to take.

Jean Silva To Win By KO/TKO/DQ

• UFC Bet Odds: +110

Jean Silva is a wrecking ball right now which makes this bet solid.

He’s 3-0 in the UFC and just finished Drew Dober — who’s notoriously tough. Silva’s output is crazy with 6.12 significant strikes per minute and his striking accuracy sits at a sharp 62%. Against Bryce Mitchell, he faces a grappler who’s coming off a brutal KO loss and has struggled defensively on his feet.

Mitchell’s path for this fight is clear — get the fight to the ground. But Silva’s takedown defense and ability to keep range have held up so far. If he keeps it standing, Mitchell is in real danger of another finish loss.

At just over even money, Silva by KO feels like one of the safer finish props on tonight’s card.

Nikita Krylov To Win By Submission

• UFC Bet Odds: +300

This one’s a bit off the radar, but it has some seriously sneaky value.

Krylov averages 2.8 submission attempts per 15 minutes, and we believe he’s actually more dangerous on the mat than people give him credit for. He’s got 15 submission wins on his record and is facing Dominick Reyes, who’s historically struggled once the fight hits the ground and that’s where Krylov is going to try to get him.

Reyes did get a KO win in his last bout, but that came after 4 straight KO losses. His defensive grappling is a hole Krylov can definitely exploit — especially if Reyes gets hurt on the feet first.

Krylov undoubtedly has options here, but a club-and-sub feels live, and at +300, the odds are simply too good to pass up.

These are the Best UFC Bets for Tonight

UFC 314 is packed with potential finishes, style clashes, and fighters with something to prove and that gets us excited to bet on them. 

Whether it’s Volkanovski looking to reassert his dominance, Pimblett trying to break through, or Silva putting the featherweight division on notice, the props for this card offer some seriously insane value and sharp angles. It all makes for a good night of betting on UFC 314.

Play them straight or throw a couple into a round-robin — just don’t miss this slate. The fights tonight in Miami are going to be wild.