How does back-to-back 3-1 weeks sound? It’s been a great run for the Sunday afternoon slate of player props and Week 12 was another instance of a near-perfect week.
Tom Brady came through for us with his second straight multi-touchdown game, Jahan Dotson stayed quiet in the Washington passing attack, and Riley Patterson booted two field goals for the Jaguars in their wild comeback victory against Baltimore.
The loss on the pick sheet came from Austin Ekeler, who managed just five carries for the Chargers during their one-point win in Arizona. At the risk of getting too confident, we head into Week 13’s action with another round of prop best bets. December football is here!
George Pickens OVER 3.5 Receptions
Best Available Odds: -128 at Caesars
Pickens was elevated to the #2 wide receiver role for the Steelers once they traded Chase Claypool to Chicago and his production has remained steady in that time. The rookie from Georgia has six targets or more in seven of his last nine games and hovered between three and four catches each game over the last three weeks.
Pickens’ matchup is against an Atlanta defense that allows the fifth-most passing yards per game to opposing teams in the NFL this season. We project another 5-7 targets for him on Sunday, enough to get him across this number.
Tua Tagovailoa UNDER 1.5 Touchdown Passes
Best Available Odds: +106 at Caesars
Tua’s rise to the top echelon of NFL quarterbacks, statistically speaking, has been meteoric since the arrival of coach Mike McDaniel and receiver Tyreek Hill. The combination of offensive scheme and speed at the skill positions has opened up the Dolphins’ offense for him in 2022.
Tagovailoa leads the NFL in QBR, Passer Rating, yards per pass attempt, and touchdown % among quarterbacks this season. Watching the former Alabama star play has been a true treat all year long.
On the flip side, San Francisco has allowed nine touchdown passes in 11 games this season and is best in the NFL in scoring defense at 15.7 points per game. Tua has more games this season with zero or one touchdown than he has multiple touchdowns, and this week will add to that surprising disparity.
Dameon Pierce OVER 70.5 Rushing Yards
Best Available Odds: -115 at DraftKings
Pierce has seen just 15 carries in his last two games and turned those touches into 16 rushing yards as the Texans were blown out by the Commanders and Dolphins. There are two main reasons to believe that will change this week: a new starting quarterback and a soft Cleveland run defense.
The Browns allow the 10th-most rushing yards per game (131.5) and 7th-most yards per carry (4.8) in the league this season. Even more importantly, Kyle Allen will start for Houston in place of the now-benched Davis Mills. We predict Lovie Smith will stick to what the Texans do best and run the ball with Pierce.
Riley Patterson OVER 1.5 Field Goals
Best Available Odds: +102 at Caesars
No, that’s not a typo. We had so much fun with Patterson’s prop last week that we’re rolling the play over into Week 13. We might as well ride the horse til she dies!
The Jaguars play underneath the dome at Ford Field on Sunday against one of the worst defenses in the NFL. Patterson will turn his multi-field goal performance into a habit while Jacksonville lives in Detroit territory all afternoon.
