Scottie Scheffler is walking into the weakest field he’ll see all year, and DFS players everywhere are staring down the same question: do you pay up for the chalkiest lineup piece of the season, or build around him and hunt for the massive ownership edge that comes with fading him entirely?
Quick take:
- Top play: Scottie Scheffler
- Why: Overwhelming favorite at +260 to +275 in a depleted 144-man field, with almost no top-10 competition standing between him and a lopsided ownership share
- The number to watch: Defending champ Kurt Kitayama’s 2025 winning week produced +9.7 strokes gained on approach and +13.8 SG: tee-to-green — the exact profile TPC Twin Cities rewards
The 3M Open at TPC Twin Cities in Blaine, Minnesota runs July 23-26, and this year’s field looks unusually thin. Most top-tier players are taking the week off between the Open Championship and the start of the FedEx Cup Playoffs, which means Scheffler is making his tournament debut here as a massive favorite in a field that otherwise lacks another true superstar. That imbalance is exactly what makes this a fascinating build week — the winning score at TPC Twin Cities has landed between 15-24 under par in recent years, so this is a birdie-fest course that rewards aggressive lineup construction over cautious, safe plays.
Chalk vs. Contrarian: The Scheffler Decision
Scheffler will be the highest-owned player in every contest format this week, and for good reason — he’s priced at $14,900 on DraftKings, roughly $5,000 more than the next player on the board, and the field simply doesn’t have another name capable of matching his ceiling. In cash games, that price tag is close to unavoidable. In Underdog Fantasy and other GPP-style contests, though, his ownership will likely climb into nosebleed territory, which opens a real lane for anyone willing to fade him and build a differentiated roster around the rest of the board.
Defending champion Kurt Kitayama sits as the next name on the odds board at roughly +2200 to +2500, and he’s the centerpiece of this week’s chalk-vs-fade debate. His recent form is unspectacular — a 33rd at the John Deere, a missed cut at the Canadian Open, and a T40 at the Open Championship — but his course-fit history is close to unmatched. He finished T6 in 2024 and then won at TPC Twin Cities in 2025 at 23-under, catching fire over the weekend with rounds of 60 and 65 to beat Sam Stevens by a single shot.
Sleepers and Value Plays
With most of the game’s biggest names sitting this week out, the value pool below the top two names on the board is unusually deep. These are the names worth rostering to build differentiation into GPP lineups.
Maverick McNealy (+2350 to +2800) has been one of the tour’s steadiest performers in 2026, already picking up a win this season with eight top-10 finishes and 15 cuts made in 17 starts — that kind of consistency plays well at a course that rewards keeping the ball in play. Jackson Koivun (+3000 to +3600) brings fresh buzz off a strong professional debut and carries real summer momentum into a field that’s light on proven names in his salary range. Ben James (+5000 to +5100) is another name to watch — he’s shown he belongs, making the cut at this year’s U.S. Open in a tie for 23rd, and his strong summer form makes him a live differentiation piece at a lower price point.
Why the Course Fit Matters More Than Distance
TPC Twin Cities has a reputation as a bomber’s course — past winners include Matthew Wolff, Cameron Champ, Tony Finau, and Kitayama himself — and while driving distance does carry some weight here, the deeper stat trail says approach play is what separates winners from the rest of the field. Kitayama’s title-winning week is the clearest illustration of that: he gained nearly 10 strokes on approach alone over four rounds, dwarfing his other statistical categories that week.
Kitayama gained +9.7 strokes on approach during his 2025 3M Open win — nearly triple his next-best statistical category that week.
That’s the number that should guide roster construction here. Approach play at TPC Twin Cities tends to separate contenders from pretenders more than raw driving distance does, even with the course’s reputation for rewarding bombers. Build around players who combine length off the tee with strong iron play, not just one or the other.
The “winner without Scheffler” futures market offers a useful gut-check on where the smart money sees this field shaking out beyond the obvious favorite: Sungjae Im (+4000), Jordan Smith (+4200), Sam Stevens (+4500), and long-shot Steven Fisk (+9400) all carry value as contrarian differentiation angles if you’re building a lineup that fades the chalk entirely.
This Week’s Lineup Picks
The construction question this week isn’t really about who’s the best player in the field — it’s about how much exposure to Scheffler your lineup can afford relative to the rest of your contest pool.
- Top play: Scottie Scheffler
- Value play: Maverick McNealy
- Sleeper: Jackson Koivun
Pay up for Scheffler in cash games, but don’t be afraid to fade him in large-field GPPs — this week’s weak field means the value and differentiation plays further down the board carry more equity than usual.
