It was a tough night for our MLB props last Friday, as both of our Unders went up in smoke quicker than Cheech and Chong! What made it especially painful was that both Shane McClanahan and Touki Toussaint went over their respective totals by only 0.5!
That’s just how it goes sometimes in the crazy world of MLB props. Oh well, time to shake it off and move on. Let’s get right with 3 PrizePicks MLB props for Monday, July 31. Good luck!
Nick Pivetta OVER 6.5 Strikeouts
Pivetta is an interesting guy. He’s only started 8 games this season, but his high K-rate of 29.4% is one of the best in the majors. That number puts Pivetta in the 85th percentile in baseball, which just shows that he has elite stuff.
Pivetta has a very good fastball that averages 94mph with lots of movement. His curveball is also very good and should keep Seattle’s hitters guessing.
Speaking of Seattle’s hitters, their lineup is one of the worst in MLB in strikeout rate. In fact, the M’s have the 3rd highest K-rate in baseball for July. They have 4 everyday players with K-rates above 25%! Let’s ride the Over!
JP France UNDER 4 Strikeouts
We like JP France because he looks just like Rick “The Wild Thang” Vaughn from Major League. However, France doesn’t strike out nearly as many hitters as Vaughn did in that movie (lol). In all seriousness, France’s K-rate of only 16.7% puts him in the 12th percentile.
France gets a lot of movement on his fastball, but it only tops out around 93mph, which is pretty slow by big-league standards for a right-hander. He did strike out 6 Cleveland hitters on June 10th but that was an anomaly.
The Guardians have the lowest K-rate in baseball as a team, and we see them putting the ball in play pretty often tonight. Cleveland has 7 hitters with a K-rate of less than 21%.
Corbin Burnes UNDER 6 Strikeouts
Gulp! This one is scarier than a Nightmare on Elm Street movie. Burnes has been on a roll of late, so it’s kind of tough to fade him. However, this Nats team does a fabulous job of avoiding strikeouts.
For the season, Burnes’s median strikeout number is 6. However, that’s got to be adjusted down at least a full strikeout due to Washington’s ability to put the ball in play.
In 5 starts against Low-K teams (AZ, CLE, HOU, NYM), Burnes has only gone over this total once. We’ll hold our breath and take the Under!