3 NHL Shots on Goal Props to Back on Wednesday, Nov. 11

Tonight’s NHL slate has three shooters worth circling, and shots on goal is the prop market where volume and role matter more than luck. A player cannot control whether a puck finds the net, but he can control how often he fires it, so the best shot-volume bets come from players who get big minutes, power-play time and a favorable matchup.

We went through tonight’s board looking for shooters whose usage supports the number the book is asking them to clear. Here is why each of these three over bets makes sense, and where the real edge sits.

Nikita Kucherov Over 2.5 Shots on Goal Against Buffalo

Kucherov has put 51 shots on goal through 17 games this season, which works out to exactly three per night. He has fired 41 shots over his last 10 games, including three against Chicago on Nov. 5 and three at Winnipeg, and the line of 2.5 sits just below his season average. DraftKings has the over at -150 for the Lightning’s 7:00 PM ET game in Buffalo.

The history in this building is encouraging too. The Tampa Bay winger, who wears number 86, has 51 shots on goal in 17 career games against the Sabres, the same three-per-game pace. Buffalo’s Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen has stopped just .878 of shots this season, and the Sabres are missing several players to injury, so Tampa Bay should have plenty of time in the offensive zone.

When a star plays big minutes on the top power-play unit, his shot floor is high, and Kucherov does both. The -150 price implies about a 60 percent chance, while Dimers puts the real probability closer to 67 percent, which is where the value sits.

Porter Martone Over 1.5 Shots on Goal at Edmonton

This is a volume play on a young right winger who has kept shooting even while his scoring has cooled. Martone wears number 94 for Philadelphia and has cleared 1.5 shots in six of his last 10 games. He skates on the Flyers’ first power-play unit alongside Matvei Michkov, which hands him extra chances to shoot with the man advantage, and DraftKings has the over at -145 for the 9:00 PM ET game.

The game script helps as well. Edmonton is a heavy favorite at around -200, and a team playing from behind tends to throw more pucks at the net. The Oilers allow roughly 26 shots per game, so Philadelphia will still get its looks, and Martone only needs two shots on target to cash this ticket.

The line is low for a reason, since Martone plays about 14 minutes a night, so this is not a number to overpay on. At -145 with a power-play role, it is a fair price for a player who shoots more than his goal total suggests.

Filip Forsberg Over 2.5 Shots on Goal at Anaheim

Forsberg is one of the most consistent shooters in the league, and he is coming off a two-goal night in Nashville’s 3-0 win over the Kings that stretched the Predators’ winning streak to five games. The Nashville winger, who wears number 9, has cleared 2.5 shots in about half of his last 10 games, and DraftKings has the over at -155 for the 10:00 PM ET start.

The matchup is the reason to lean in. Anaheim’s projected starter, Laurent Brossoit, has a .876 save percentage this season, and the Ducks allow about 27 shots per game. Forsberg also has 46 shots in 18 career games against Anaheim, so he has historically found his looks in this matchup.

The one thing to watch is the schedule, since Nashville is playing the second night of a back-to-back and could lose a step late. Forsberg’s role does not change, though, and he remains the top shooter on a team trying to extend its streak.

Lock These In

All three players have the usage, the matchup and a line that sits at or below their normal shot volume. Before you place anything, shop the number at your book and check live NHL odds for a better price. Here are tonight’s plays:

• Nikita Kucherov OVER 2.5 shots on goal (-150 at DraftKings)
• Porter Martone OVER 1.5 shots on goal (-145 at DraftKings)
• Filip Forsberg OVER 2.5 shots on goal (-155 at DraftKings)

Lines move throughout the day, so confirm the number before you bet, and keep your stakes sensible with our responsible gambling tips in mind.