3 NHL Shots on Goal Props to Back on October 25

Sunday’s NHL slate is a full five-game card, and the cleanest way to attack it is the shots on goal market. Shot props are easier to understand than goals or points because they track volume, and volume is far more repeatable night to night than whether a puck happens to go in.

Today’s three plays come from a rookie getting top-line minutes in Chicago, a Winnipeg sniper who almost never misses a shot target, and an Avalanche superstar who lives above his number. All three lean on role, ice time and matchup. Prices below were posted at DraftKings at the time of writing, so check your book before you bet.

Roman Kantserov Over 1.5 Shots on Goal (-145)

Kantserov is a 22-year-old rookie who arrived from the KHL, where he scored 36 goals in 63 games for Metallurg Magnitogorsk last season. He is now skating on Chicago’s top line next to Connor Bedard and Patrick Kane, about as good a shot-generating spot as a Blackhawks forward can ask for. Through his first seven NHL games he had put 12 shots on net, including three against Carolina on October 11 and four against Pittsburgh on October 14, when he scored twice.

The matchup helps too. Florida is expected to start Akira Schmid in net, and he enters with a 3.63 goals-against average and an .867 save percentage. A line with Bedard and Kane will create chances at home in the United Center, and a goalie who is struggling to stop pucks gives shooters every reason to keep firing. Dimers’ model puts this over at a 73.6% probability, which is meaningfully better than the roughly 59% implied by -145.

The line of 1.5 only asks for two shots from a player who is on the ice in every key situation for the Blackhawks. For a rookie on the top line, that is a low bar.

Kyle Connor Over 2.5 Shots on Goal (-160)

If you want consistency, Connor is the cleanest shooter on the board. He has nine goals and 44 shots on goal this season, which ranks fourth in the league in both categories, and he is averaging about 4.4 shots a night. Over his last 20 games he has recorded at least two shots every single time (20 of 20) and at least three shots in 17 of them.

Montreal visits Winnipeg at 7 p.m. ET. Most books have Connor’s main shot line at 3.5, so the 2.5 rung is the safer ladder step. You pay a heavier price at -160, but a player who has cleared three shots 85% of the time recently is a reasonable buy. Dimers rates the over at 68.3% with a 6.8% edge, a gap you do not often see on a player this reliable.

The main risk is game flow. If the Jets build a big lead and sit on it, shot volume can dry up late. Even then, a player averaging more than four a game has plenty of cushion against a 2.5 line.

Nathan MacKinnon Over 3.5 Shots on Goal (-155)

MacKinnon is the highest-volume shooter on the slate. In 11 games he has 7 goals and 13 assists on 48 shots, an average of roughly 4.4 per game while skating about 21 minutes a night, with nearly four of those on the power play. He has cleared 3.5 shots in 6 of his last 10 games, and on October 23 he scored a goal on four shots in a four-point night.

Colorado plays at Nashville at 8 p.m. ET. A player who attacks the net every shift and gets heavy power-play looks is a natural fit for a shot prop on the road. The line of 3.5 means four shots are required, so this is the thinnest margin of the three picks. Dimers still gives it a 64.0% probability against the 60.8% implied by -155, a modest but real edge.

Because the cushion is smaller here, MacKinnon is the pick to size down on if you are building a card. Keep an eye on the live NHL odds for line movement before puck drop.

Lock These In

All three plays share the same logic: trust role, ice time and a favorable matchup instead of chasing a hot streak. If you are new to shot props, the betting calculator is a quick way to see what each price means for your payout and the break-even rate you need to hit.

• Roman Kantserov (CHI) OVER 1.5 shots on goal (-145)
• Kyle Connor (WPG) OVER 2.5 shots on goal (-160)
• Nathan MacKinnon (COL) OVER 3.5 shots on goal (-155)

Shot volume is about as steady as a prop market gets, which is why these three are worth the juice. Bet within your means and check your book for the latest numbers before you lock anything in.