The NHL slate is short on Wednesday night, with just two games on the board, and both drop the puck at 7:30 PM ET. That makes it easy to focus, and the best angle looks like shots on goal. Philadelphia visits Buffalo, and the numbers point to a lot of rubber headed toward the Flyers’ net.

Shots on goal props are a friendly place to start if you are new to player betting. You do not need a puck to find the net, you just need a player to put it on goal, and the volume tells you most of what you need to know. Here are three shot props worth a look in Flyers vs. Sabres.

Tage Thompson Over 3.5 Shots on Goal (about +122)

Thompson is the engine of the Buffalo offense and one of the most active shooters in the league. He has 42 shots through nine games, an average of 4.7 per night, which ranks third in the NHL. He also leads the Sabres in goals with five and points with nine, so this is not empty volume.

The recent trend is even louder. Thompson put six shots on net in a 4-1 loss to Utah on October 10, then fired five on goal in Saturday’s 4-3 overtime loss to Montreal while scoring in that game. That is 11 shots over his last two outings, and his season average sits more than a full shot above a line of 3.5.

The matchup helps too. Philadelphia is allowing 32.3 shots per game, 31st in the league, and the Flyers are 2-6-3 with a minus-18 goal differential. When a team gives up that many looks, the top shooter on the other side tends to get his share. Thompson is listed around +122 in the market, so you are getting plus money on a player who has been averaging more than the number.

Porter Martone Over 2.5 Shots on Goal (+140)

This one is a bet on the model, and it is only fair to be upfront about it. Martone has averaged just 1.1 shots per game over 11 games this season, so an over 2.5 is a stretch against the raw numbers. The Dimers model, though, puts the probability at 48.7% against the roughly 41.7% implied by +140 odds, which works out to a 7.1% edge, the biggest of the three plays here.

The case for a spike is recent form and the matchup. Martone scored a goal on four shots in Saturday’s 3-1 win over Ottawa and added a power-play assist, so he has already shown he can get to a high shot total. He is also facing a Flyers-Sabres game where Buffalo shoots 26.8 times per night and Philadelphia is without Travis Konecny, who is on injured reserve, so ice time and opportunity should be there.

Treat this one as a smaller, plus-money swing. A 1.1 average means he will miss on most nights, but if he is getting looks in a high-event game, the +140 price is more than fair for the upside.

Sean Couturier Over 1.5 Shots on Goal (+110)

Couturier is a defensive center, so his shot totals are modest, but 1.5 is a low bar. He has 13 shots on goal in 11 games, about 1.2 per night, and he has had multi-shot games against Ottawa (four shots on October 8), Seattle, and Colorado, including two shots in Monday’s loss to the Avalanche.

The reason to like the over is the Flyers’ situation. Couturier is skating on the third line with Michael Bunting and Jacob Gaucher and averaging about 17 minutes a night, which is plenty of ice time to find two shots. Dimers has the over at 50.8% probability against +110 odds, a 3.1% edge, so the price is slightly better than a coin flip.

Shop around before you bet, since a one-shot swing in the number changes the value a lot. If your book has this prop at 1.5 with plus money, it is a reasonable add. If it moves to -130 or worse, pass.

Lock In the Shot Props

Thompson is the strongest play of the group, backed by elite volume, a hot streak, and a Flyers defense that has struggled to limit shots. Martone and Couturier are smaller, model-driven plays that carry more variance, so size your bets accordingly. A betting calculator can help you plan your stakes before the puck drops.

Odds move throughout the day, so confirm the current lines at your book, and you can compare prices on the live NHL odds page. New to betting? A DraftKings promo code can give your first bet some extra juice. Please bet responsibly.