Monday night brings four NHL games, and the best shots on goal props sit in two of the biggest matchups: Colorado at Philadelphia and San Jose at Toronto. Shots on goal are one of the friendliest prop markets for newer bettors because they do not depend on a puck going in. You just need a player who fires the puck constantly, plays big minutes, and faces a team that lets him do it.

All three of today’s plays are OVER 3.5 shots on goal. Each player shoots at an elite rate, each has a matchup that helps, and the prices are reasonable. Lines are from FanDuel and can move, so check your book before you bet.

Nathan MacKinnon OVER 3.5 Shots on Goal (-156)

MacKinnon is the engine of the Avalanche, and shooting is a huge part of how he drives the offense. He has 16 points through eight games, and last Friday he put nine shots on goal in a 5-2 win over Pittsburgh. Over his last 88 games he is scoring 0.67 goals per game and averaging about 4.4 shots a night, which already sits above this number.

The -156 price tells you the market agrees, so this is a play about volume rather than a big payout. Our projection is roughly 3.56 shots, and he has recorded three or more shots in about 65 percent of his last 20 games. Over 3.5 simply means four or more, and a player who averages above four gets there more often than not.

The matchup helps. Philadelphia is 0-6-3 and has allowed 33 goals in nine games while scoring only 11, and Colorado sits at the top of the Puckwired Power Rankings. The expected goalies are Mackenzie Blackwood for Colorado and Dan Vladar for Philadelphia, with Joseph Woll as the backup. For newer bettors, our live NHL odds page is a handy place to compare how different books price a game like this one.

Auston Matthews OVER 3.5 Shots on Goal (-114)

Matthews is back to looking like himself. He has six goals and seven assists through eight games, and his 26 shots work out to about 3.3 per game. That is a touch under the 3.5 line, so this pick is as much about the matchup as the raw average. He is also Toronto’s leader in high-danger chances, which is where good shot volume comes from.

San Jose ranks near the bottom of the league in both goals and shots allowed, which gives Matthews a softer 5-on-5 night than most. Our projection lands at about 3.32 shots, and he needs four. At -114 you are paying very little extra. If you want to see exactly what any price pays, our betting calculator breaks it down.

The expected starters are Yaroslav Askarov for San Jose, who is carrying a .848 save percentage this season, and Sergei Bobrovsky for Toronto. A shaky goalie on one end tends to keep the game open, and that means more rushes and more chances for Matthews to shoot.

Macklin Celebrini OVER 3.5 Shots on Goal (-118)

Celebrini is the young star leading the Sharks, and he is healthy and playing a huge role. He has three goals and 11 points to go with 26 shots in six games, which is more than four a night. He is coming off a game in which he scored on seven shots in a 4-3 shootout loss to Detroit, and he ranks 23rd in the NHL in shots on goal per 60 minutes.

Toronto has been generous. The Maple Leafs give up 3.44 goals and 29.2 shots a game, and they rank in the bottom 10 in expected goals against. Our projection puts Celebrini around 3.44 shots, and this is the softest 5-on-5 matchup he has seen on the slate. San Jose is also a road underdog, and if the Sharks trail, Celebrini will keep firing to chase the game, which only helps this bet.

If you are still deciding where to place props like this one, our Fanatics Sportsbook review is a good place to start comparing options.

Lock These In Before Puck Drop

All three players are high-volume shooters facing teams that are struggling to keep the puck out of their own end. MacKinnon has the strongest floor, Matthews has the biggest upside for a monster night, and Celebrini offers the best balance of volume and price. Here are today’s plays:

Confirm the starting goalies after morning skate and check your sportsbook for the latest numbers. Bet within your budget and let the shots come to you.