Saturday’s NHL schedule is a full 12-game slate, and the best shots on goal angle sits north of the border, where the Montreal Canadiens visit the Toronto Maple Leafs at 7:00 PM ET. Shot props are one of the friendliest markets for newer bettors because you do not need a puck to find the net. You just need a player who gets the puck on his stick, shoots often, and plays a lot of minutes.

Three Leafs fit that description tonight. Our model likes William Nylander, Darren Raddysh and Auston Matthews to clear their shot lines, and the reasons are simple to explain. Lines are at DraftKings and can move, so check your book before you bet.

William Nylander Over 2.5 Shots on Goal (+100)

Nylander is averaging 2.88 shots on goal per game this season and has cleared 2.5 in 10 of his 17 games, roughly 59 percent of the time. That is a touch better than the 57.6 percent probability our model assigns, and at even money you are being paid fairly for it. He has also been heating up lately, with 3 shots against Utah on Nov. 3 and an average of 3.0 over his last five games, going over this number in four of them.

The matchup helps too. Nylander plays on the top line and the first power play unit, which means extra ice time and extra chances to shoot with the man advantage. Montreal is a good team at 10-3-3, but the Canadiens are on the road on a short turnaround, and a Leafs team at 8-7-2 should lean on its best shooters.

Darren Raddysh Over 2.5 Shots on Goal (+120)

This is the sneaky one. Raddysh is a defenseman, so the line looks high at first glance. The context matters, though: he skates more than 23 minutes a night, works on the power play, and takes plenty of shots from the point. He is averaging roughly 2.4 shots on goal per game, so 2.5 sits right at his typical output rather than far above it.

At +120, the payout tells you the market sees this as a tougher bet than Nylander, but our model puts the probability at 53.2 percent. When your chance of winning is better than the price implies, that is the definition of value. Raddysh has yet to score a goal this season while still firing the puck regularly, and shot volume is the part of a stat line that tends to stay stable from game to game.

Auston Matthews Over 3.5 Shots on Goal (+115)

Matthews has 11 goals and 15 assists this season and averages about three shots on goal a night, which is why a line of 3.5 looks aggressive. The key is that he reaches it in bursts: he put four shots on net as recently as Oct. 28 at Seattle, and he averaged 3.8 shots per game last season, so the volume is in his profile. Our model gives him a 52.4 percent chance to get there tonight at +115.

The goaltending matchup is a reason to expect pucks on net rather than a reason to fear them. Montreal’s Jacob Fowler has been excellent, with a .925 save percentage, but that does not change how many shots Matthews takes. It just means he may need a few extra to beat him. Toronto is expected to go with Anthony Stolarz in goal, and a tight game keeps Matthews on the ice and shooting. Check live NHL odds before you lock in, because a half-point difference on this line changes the value.

Lock These In

All three bets are built on volume, not luck. Nylander has the most reliable shot count of the group, Raddysh offers the best price relative to his workload, and Matthews gives you the highest ceiling at plus-money. If you are new to props, a DraftKings promo code can give you bonus bets to start with.

Shot props reward patience, so size your bets small and let the volume do the work. Always confirm the final lines and lineups before puck drop.