3 NHL Shots on Goal Props to Back on November 4

Four NHL games hit the ice on Wednesday, November 4, with Ottawa visiting Buffalo and Chicago at Florida at 7:30 p.m. ET, then San Jose at Los Angeles and Calgary at Seattle later in the evening. If you are new to player props, shots on goal is one of the friendliest markets to start with, because a shot total depends on a player’s role, ice time and the opponent far more than on a lucky bounce.

Today’s three picks all come from that idea: players who get the puck on net a lot, facing a matchup that should keep them shooting. Odds move through the day, so check your book before you bet.

Alex Laferriere 3+ Shots on Goal (-135, FanDuel)

Laferriere is the Kings winger who keeps firing even when the puck is not going in. He has 15 shots on goal over his last three games, which is 5.0 per night, and he has done it during a three-game scoreless stretch. When a scorer is slumping, the usual response is to shoot more, not less, and that is exactly what the numbers show.

The matchup helps too. San Jose allows 30.4 shots on goal per game, which ranks 30th in the NHL, so there should be plenty of room for him to get pucks on net. He logged 7 shots against Ottawa on October 29 and 5 at Chicago on October 27, and he has been playing about 20 minutes a night lately.

To be clear about the bar: 3+ shots is a step above his season pace of roughly 2.5 shots a game, so you are paying a -135 price for a recent hot streak plus a soft opponent. That is a fair trade for a player who is seeing this kind of volume.

Tim Stutzle Over 2.5 Shots on Goal (+140, DraftKings)

Stutzle is Ottawa’s engine, and he is putting up numbers to match: 9 goals and 12 assists for 21 points through 15 games, with more than 21 minutes of ice time a night. His shot totals can swing from game to game, but the ceiling is high. He fired 7 shots on goal in a 5-1 win at San Jose on October 31 and 5 against the Sharks on October 22.

The reason to like the over at plus money is the price. Dimers puts the probability of him clearing 2.5 shots at 48.2%, which gives the bet a 6.6% edge over the implied odds. Another model projects him for about 2.5 expected shots with a 45% chance of three or more, so the +140 number is paying you more than the projections suggest the risk is worth.

Buffalo was outshot 34-21 at Washington on October 24, which suggests the Sabres can be stretched defensively. This one is a plus-money swing, so treat it as a smaller play than the other two, but the value is there.

Macklin Celebrini Over 3.5 Shots on Goal (+110, DraftKings)

Celebrini is the straightforward volume pick of the night. The Sharks center has 54 shots on goal in 14 games this season, close to four per night, and he sits at 16 points, the team lead. He has hit four or more shots in 6 of his last 10 games, including 6 against Vancouver on October 29 and 7 at Detroit on October 17.

His ice time is a big part of it. He is averaging more than 22 minutes a game and gets heavy power-play work, so the shots keep coming even in losses. He had only 2 shots in each of his last two games, against Ottawa and Calgary, which is the main reason this line sits at +110 instead of shorter odds.

Dimers gives him a 51.4% chance of clearing 3.5, which is better than the plus-money price implies. San Jose is on the road at Los Angeles, a Kings team that allows 28.3 shots a game, so he should have chances. Of the three picks, this is the one most dependent on a bounce-back, so size it accordingly.

Lock These In

All three plays come down to one idea: pick shooters with a real role and a reason to keep shooting. Laferriere is the safest of the group, Celebrini is the high-volume option, and Stutzle is the plus-money value swing. If you want to track the price on any of them, you can compare the live NHL odds before you place a bet, and use a betting calculator to see what your payout looks like at different stakes.

• Alex Laferriere 3+ shots on goal (-135, FanDuel)
• Tim Stutzle OVER 2.5 shots on goal (+140, DraftKings)
• Macklin Celebrini OVER 3.5 shots on goal (+110, DraftKings)

Shots on goal props are a good way to learn how player markets work, but no bet is a lock. Stick to an amount you are comfortable with, and check the lines at your book before puck drop.