3 NHL Shots on Goal Props to Back on November 12

Thursday night’s NHL board is stacked, and three of the cleanest shots on goal props all land in the same 7:00 PM ET window. Shots on goal are one of the friendlier prop markets for newer bettors because you do not need a puck to find the net, you just need a player who keeps getting it on his stick in good spots.

Each of these three picks pairs a high-volume shooter with a line that sits right at his recent average. Here is why Cole Caufield, Zach Werenski and Joel Eriksson Ek are worth a look, and where the numbers back them up.

Cole Caufield Over 2.5 Shots on Goal (-175 at BetMGM)

Caufield and the Canadiens visit the Bruins at TD Garden, and the Montreal winger has been averaging right around 3.0 shots on goal across his last 10 games. He has cleared 2.5 in 7 of those 10, and the Dimers model puts the probability of the over at 68.9%, which is a real edge against the -175 price.

The matchup helps too. Montreal has Jacob Fowler confirmed in goal (8-1-2, .925), and Boston is expected to counter with Michael DiPietro (4-1-0, .923). Neither goalie changes how many looks Caufield gets, but a Canadiens team that has been playing with confidence tends to keep the puck in the offensive zone. Caufield also plays on the top power play unit, which adds easy volume from his favorite spots.

The price is steep, so it is worth comparing NHL odds before you lock it in. If you can find the over at a better number, take it.

Zach Werenski Over 2.5 Shots on Goal (-165 at BetMGM)

Defensemen who shoot like forwards are gold in this market, and Werenski is exactly that. He is averaging 3.7 shots on goal over his last 10 games and 4.0 over his last 5, and he has gone over 2.5 in 7 of his last 10. He logged six shots against Florida on Tuesday and nine against Toronto earlier this season.

The reason is simple: ice time. Werenski plays about 28 minutes a night, which is more than most forwards on any roster, and he runs the top power play. More minutes means more chances to shoot. He is also much more active at home, where he averages 3.7 shots a game compared with 2.2 on the road, and Thursday’s game is at Nationwide Arena against a Lightning team that allows 7.6 shots a game to opposing defensemen.

Dimers rates this one at 65.5% probability. At -165 you are paying for that confidence, but the volume is about as reliable as it gets for a blueliner.

Joel Eriksson Ek Over 2.5 Shots on Goal (-115 at DraftKings)

This is the value play of the three. Eriksson Ek is a center who does most of his work in the middle of the ice, and he has averaged about 3.1 shots on goal over his last 10 games. The line is 2.5 and the price is only -115, which is a much friendlier number than the first two picks.

Minnesota visits Toronto at Scotiabank Arena as a slight favorite, with the Wild given roughly a 59% chance to win. A team that expects to play with the lead or in a back and forth game generates a steady stream of attempts from its top line, and Eriksson Ek is on that line. The Dimers model has the over at 58.0%, a 4.5% edge, and other projections have him around 3.0 shots with 55% on the over.

He also checks the volume box on ice time, with a top-line role and power play minutes that keep him in shooting position. The longer trend is what matters here, not any single quiet night.

Lock These In

All three shooters have the volume, the role and the matchup to clear 2.5 shots on goal. Lines move through the day, so check your book for the current number before placing anything, and size your bets so you are comfortable with the result either way.

• Cole Caufield OVER 2.5 shots on goal (-175 at BetMGM)
• Zach Werenski OVER 2.5 shots on goal (-165 at BetMGM)
• Joel Eriksson Ek OVER 2.5 shots on goal (-115 at DraftKings)

If you want to get a feel for how these markets are priced, our BetMGM review breaks down the book behind two of these lines. Shots props reward patience, so trust the volume.