Week 4 of the NFL season is shaping up to be a showcase for the passing game, and three quarterbacks in particular look primed to clear their numbers this Sunday. Joe Burrow, Jared Goff, and Josh Allen are all off to blistering starts, and each one draws a matchup that plays right into his strengths.

None of these are coin-flip bets dressed up as locks. Each pick is backed by three weeks of hard data, a specific schematic edge, and a defense that’s given up exactly the kind of production we’re betting on. Here’s the breakdown, pick by pick.

Joe Burrow OVER 265.5 Passing Yards vs. Jacksonville

Burrow has been one of the most efficient passers in football through three weeks, completing 70.9% of his throws for 743 yards (247.7 per game) with 6 touchdowns against just 1 interception. He’s coming off his best game of the season, a 28-of-37, 282-yard, 3-touchdown outing against Pittsburgh, and there’s no reason to expect a step back against Jacksonville.

There was some chatter about Burrow dealing with minor back tightness earlier in the week, but he’s been confirmed as good to go, and Cincinnati isn’t going to slow-play a home game against a division rival on a short week.

The matchup math favors the over here. Jacksonville’s defense has been stout against the run, but it’s allowed 235.7 passing yards per game, the ninth-most in the NFL through three weeks, and ranks 21st overall against the pass. Burrow and Ja’Marr Chase have feasted on this Jaguars secondary before, and with Paycor Stadium hosting a 1 p.m. kickoff and the total sitting among the highest on the board this week, game script should keep Burrow throwing deep into the fourth quarter.

Jared Goff OVER 262.5 Passing Yards @ Carolina

Goff has quietly been the most efficient quarterback in football this year. Through three games he’s completed 70.6% of his passes for 802 yards (267.3 per game) with 8 touchdowns and zero interceptions, numbers that put him near the top of every meaningful efficiency category in the league.

Carolina’s defense looks tough on the surface, ranking fifth in the league at 172.3 passing yards allowed per game. But there’s a soft spot: the Panthers rank 25th in yards per play allowed off play-action, and play-action is exactly where Goff does his damage. His 341 passing yards off play-action this season lead the entire NFL. Detroit’s offense has passed 56.8% of the time so far this season, and with the Lions averaging nearly 30 points a game, there’s no reason Dan Campbell slows down the play-calling just because it’s Sunday Night Football on the road.

Context matters too. Goff has thrown multiple touchdowns in all three games and has eclipsed 260 yards in two of his last three outings, including a 327-yard, 4-touchdown game two weeks ago against Buffalo. This Panthers defense hasn’t faced an offense firing on all cylinders quite like Detroit’s yet.

Josh Allen OVER 19.5 Completions vs. New England

Allen is in the middle of an MVP-caliber start to the season. He’s thrown for 786 yards (262 per game) and 5 touchdowns, but the truly absurd part of his stat line is on the ground: 114 rushing yards and 6 rushing touchdowns through just three games. Buffalo is 3-0, and Allen is doing it as both a passer and a one-man red-zone offense.

The completions prop is the smart way to play this one rather than chasing a yardage number, because it isolates volume and accuracy rather than depending on one or two chunk plays. Allen is completing 65.1% of his passes (56-of-86) and has gone over 19.5 completions in each of Buffalo’s first three games this season. New England is starting a struggling Drake Maye-led offense that’s been outscored badly enough to force obvious passing situations onto the Bills’ side of the ball too, and Buffalo enters as a 6.5-to-7-point home favorite with the total sitting at 48.5, the kind of number that signals a shootout-leaning script rather than a clock-control grind.

New England’s defense has actually played better than its record suggests schematically, but it’s also banged up in the secondary, and Buffalo’s staff has shown no hesitation letting Allen sling it even with a big lead. Expect Dalton Kincaid and DJ Moore to rack up the short-to-intermediate completions that push this number over comfortably.

Lock These In This Sunday

All three of these quarterbacks are performing well above their career norms through three weeks, and each one faces a defense with a specific, exploitable weakness that lines up with the bet. This isn’t about chasing garbage-time stats, it’s about volume, efficiency, and game scripts that all point the same direction.

Check your DraftKings promo code or Fanatics Sportsbook promo for the latest numbers before kickoff, since props can shift throughout the week as more money comes in on these three passers.