Week 15 was yet another successful outing for NFL underdog bettors as non-favored teams wrapped up the week 9-6-1 to further the 2022 total to 119-99-6. The point total betting ended up an evenly split 8-8 last week, and the season-long standings for under bettors in the NFL now sit at 120-101-3.
We posted our second straight week with a 1-2 record in Week 15 to slightly bring our overall record down. That now stands at 28-22 after 15 weeks of games.
The Steelers-Panthers’ total was taken down by a tough beat where the Panthers kicked a field goal to reduce Pittsburgh’s lead to seven points with 16 seconds remaining. The Jets also lost by a field goal to Detroit in a game where they allowed a punt return for a touchdown and lost the turnover battle.
After those two losses, it was nice to salvage the week with the Giants and Commanders playing under their point total. The goal for Week 16 is solely to win more than we lose, and we present our NFL Best Bets for Christmas Eve with that in mind.
Detroit Lions @ Carolina Panthers: UNDER 44
Best Available Odds: -110 at WynnBet
This number is a bit of a head-scratcher given that these two teams are in the bottom half of the NFL in scoring defense this season and are both improving their offensive scoring output as the year progresses.
Detroit is averaging more than 31 points per game over their last three, and Carolina has scored 46 points across the last two weeks with Sam Darnold back under center.
This number opened at 44.5 and hasn’t moved much despite a lot of momentum toward the over. The season-long numbers, recent trends, and betting public all are leaning toward this total being too low, and we’ll fade that trio on principle.
Seattle Seahawks @ Kansas City Chiefs: UNDER 49.5
Best Available Odds: -110 at WynnBet
Another matchup of average to below-average scoring defenses presents itself as an opportunity to fade the public. Seattle generates turnovers at a top-ten rate in the league.
Kansas City, despite a league-leading 29.6 points per game, has more turnovers than 26 other teams in the NFL this season. The Seahawks have tried to establish their running game more often on the road than at home this season, and the Chiefs are averaging eight fewer points per game at Arrowhead compared to their road tests.
We look to some small trends such as those to bolster our case in betting the under in a game with two high-performing offenses this season.
Houston Texans @ Tennessee Titans: UNDER 35.5
Best Available Odds: -105 at FanDuel
This total has begun to free-fall as the midweek bettors are looking to take advantage of an AFC South matchup between some teams that have struggled to score for the duration of the 2022 season.
Both Houston and Tennessee are in the bottom ten in the league in terms of scoring offense, total offense, third down conversion rate, and a host of other offensive metrics that define success.
We project a final tally landing somewhere in the 20s, and these two division rivals seeking to out-rush the other in a late-season contest. Take the under in Nashville.
