Strikeout props are one of the most predictable markets in baseball when you know where to look, and Monday night’s slate is loaded with mismatches that favor swinging for the over. Three starters stand out above the rest: a Yankees rookie who’s been must-watch television all season, a Cy Young front-runner getting a soft landing spot, and a Brewers flamethrower who has quietly turned into one of the nastiest arms in the National League.
Each of these picks comes down to the same core idea — a swing-and-miss pitcher facing a lineup that’s either overmatched, strikeout-prone, or both. Here’s the breakdown on all three, along with the numbers backing them up.
Cam Schlittler Feasts on a Rockies Lineup Built to Miss
Cam Schlittler has been one of the best stories in the American League this year, and Monday’s matchup at Yankee Stadium against Colorado sets up about as well as it gets. Across 29 appearances this season, Schlittler is averaging 7.2 strikeouts per game, and the line is sitting at Over 7.5 Ks at odds around -122 depending on the book.
The Rockies have been one of the league’s easiest lineups to strike out against all year, and that trend doesn’t change on the road against a pitcher who’s been missing bats consistently down the stretch. Schlittler has hit or cleared this exact strikeout total in the majority of his recent outings, and pitching at home in front of a Yankee Stadium crowd against a lineup that chases as much as Colorado’s tends to be a recipe for a big punchout total.
This isn’t a situation where you need to squint to find the value — a rookie with swing-and-miss stuff against one of the most strikeout-prone offenses in baseball, at home, is about as clean an over as this market offers on a given night.
If you’re comparing books before locking this in, checking the live MLB odds page is worth the extra thirty seconds — -122 is very playable here, but a few sportsbooks were still shading closer to -115 as of Monday afternoon.
Tarik Skubal Should Handle a Reds Lineup That Chases
Tarik Skubal remains one of the most dominant strikeout arms in the sport, and his projected strikeout total against the Reds sits at Over 8.5 Ks around -111. He’s carried a 7.2 strikeouts per game average across his 2026 season, and recent projection models have him trending as high as 9.1 for this specific matchup given how the Reds have performed against swing-and-miss stuff lately.
Cincinnati has been one of the higher strikeout-rate offenses in all of baseball this season, and that’s exactly the kind of lineup you want to target when you’re backing a pitcher of Skubal’s caliber. He generates whiffs with both his fastball and his changeup, and lineups that already struggle to make contact against average stuff tend to get overwhelmed by a true top-of-the-rotation arm.
The number here isn’t just about volume — it’s about matchup quality. A pitcher averaging over seven strikeouts a game for the entire season, facing one of the league’s most chase-prone lineups, is the type of setup where the over has real room to hit comfortably rather than needing a career night to clear.
Jacob Misiorowski Has Been Nearly Unhittable at Home
Jacob Misiorowski has turned into one of the most electric arms in the National League, and his strikeout prop against the Cubs is set at Over 7.5 Ks around -142. Across 26 appearances, he’s averaging 8.7 strikeouts per game, and his numbers get even better in Milwaukee — a 41.7% strikeout rate in home starts this season, which is an elite figure for any starter in the league.
The Cubs come into this one on the road, and while their lineup isn’t as strikeout-heavy as some others on this list, Misiorowski’s raw stuff has been good enough to miss bats against nearly anyone this season. His fastball routinely touches triple digits, and hitters have had a tough time squaring him up regardless of who’s stepping into the box.
Home-field strikeout splits this dramatic don’t happen by accident, and with a pitcher generating swings and misses at this level, laying the price on the over feels like the right side of this number more often than not.
Lock These In
All three of these arms are trending in the right direction, and each matchup gives them a real path to clearing their strikeout total tonight. Here’s the full slate of strikeout plays worth keying on:
- Cam Schlittler Over 7.5 Strikeouts (-122)
- Tarik Skubal Over 8.5 Strikeouts (-111)
- Jacob Misiorowski Over 7.5 Strikeouts (-142)
Three dominant arms, three favorable matchups — this is the kind of night where the strikeout props deserve a serious look across the board.
