Thursday’s slate is loaded with starters trending in the right direction on the mound, and three of them stand out as strong bets to clear their strikeout total. Grant Holmes has quietly turned into a bat-missing weapon in Atlanta, Nolan McLean is riding a strikeout-per-inning workload in Queens, and Sean Burke has been one of the more underrated punchout arms in the American League all year.

None of these are longshots or hero bets — they’re built on real recent form, favorable matchups, and lines that look soft given each pitcher’s actual trend this season. Here’s why all three are worth backing tonight.

Grant Holmes Over 4.5 Strikeouts (-122)

Grant Holmes takes the mound for the Braves against Washington sporting a 6-4 record and a 3.79 ERA, and the strikeouts have been coming in bunches for him as the season has progressed. He’s carved out a rotation spot in Atlanta by missing bats consistently, and a total set at just 4.5 against a Nationals lineup that has real swing-and-miss tendencies feels like it’s underselling him.

Washington ranks in the bottom half of the league in team strikeout rate against right-handed pitching, and Holmes has shown he can work deep enough into starts to rack up whiffs even in shorter outings. Clearing 5 punchouts here is well within his range on a normal night, and this number has drifted low enough that the market appears to be sleeping on how often he’s gotten to five-plus recently.

At -122, this isn’t a heavy price to pay for a pitcher who has the stuff and the matchup to comfortably clear this mark.

Nolan McLean Over 6.5 Strikeouts (+108)

Nolan McLean has been one of the more electric arms the Mets have trotted out this season, sitting at 7-7 with a 3.32 ERA and a strikeout rate of 6.8 per game on the year — though his overall numbers actually paint an even sharper picture: 142 strikeouts across 119.1 innings works out to well over 10 punchouts per nine. That kind of swing-and-miss stuff makes a 6.5 total look like it’s leaving real value on the table, especially at plus-money.

His opponent tonight, Miami, has been middle-of-the-pack against right-handed pitching and doesn’t scare anyone with its contact skills up and down the order. McLean has cleared this number regularly this season, and Citi Field hasn’t done him any favors historically — it plays as a pitcher’s park that tends to help swing-and-miss arms rack up strikeouts deeper into starts.

Getting plus-money on a pitcher striking out at essentially a strikeout-an-inning pace all year is the kind of number sharp bettors look for.

Sean Burke Over 6.5 Strikeouts (-138)

Sean Burke has been a legitimate breakout arm for the White Sox, sitting at 7-5 with a 3.19 ERA and averaging 6.2 strikeouts per game, backed by a career-high performance against Baltimore earlier this season that showed just how much life is on his fastball right now. He’s set to face the Yankees, a lineup that has dealt with injuries and inconsistency, giving Burke a real edge to work with against hitters who haven’t seen his stuff much.

Burke’s strikeout rate sits comfortably above a punchout per inning for the season, and he’s shown the ability to push deep into games and rack up whiffs late when he’s locating his secondary pitches well. A total of 6.5 against a banged-up Yankees order isn’t asking much of a pitcher trending this hot, even with the juice attached at -138.

If you’re looking for a home for some extra juice tonight, this is the safest of the three — Burke has the swing-and-miss stuff and the matchup to get there.

Lock These In

All three of these strikeout props line up with pitchers who are trending well and facing lineups that play into their strengths. Check your book for the latest numbers before you fire, since lines can move as first pitch approaches — but as of now, all three represent good value.

Stack these together or play them individually — each one stands on its own merit, and together they make for one of the sharper strikeout slates of the week. For more player prop breakdowns, check the live MLB odds page before locking in your bets.