Game 1 of the NLCS is a strikeout bettor’s dream matchup. The Brewers hand the ball to Jacob Misiorowski, the hardest-throwing starter in baseball and the regular-season strikeout king, while the Dodgers counter with Tarik Skubal, a career postseason assassin who’s been nearly unhittable in October for two straight years. Both arms have swing-and-miss stuff that travels, and both are walking into a ballpark and a lineup built to test exactly that.

Here are three strikeout-market plays worth circling before first pitch at American Family Field, with the “why” behind each one spelled out so you’re not just taking our word for it.

Jacob Misiorowski Over His Strikeout Total

Misiorowski led all of MLB in strikeouts this season with 252, to go with a 1.80 ERA, a 0.80 WHIP, and a .157 opponents’ batting average — all tops in the league. That’s not a guy who had one big year; that’s a guy who was the most dominant starter in baseball from April through September. He’s also been here before. In three career appearances against the Dodgers — two regular-season starts plus a relief outing in last year’s NLCS — Misiorowski has a 1.59 ERA with 27 strikeouts against just three walks across 17 innings. The swing-and-miss travels against this specific opponent.

He flashed the stuff again in his NLDS Game 1 start against San Diego, when his very first pitch of the postseason registered 104.8 mph — the fastest pitch thrown in a playoff game since pitch tracking began in 2008. The Padres managed to foul off 30 pitches in the first four innings to limit him to six strikeouts over four innings before his pitch count forced an early exit, but that was more about plate discipline from a patient Padres lineup than a dip in stuff. Misiorowski was humming at elite velocity the entire outing.

The matchup math favors him here, too. The Brewers lineup is built around contact and on-base skills rather than power — they led MLB in batting average and walks this season — but that doesn’t mean they make soft contact against a 100-plus mph arm. Milwaukee’s strikeout rate is close to league average, not elite at avoiding them, and a fastball-chasing lineup seeing someone who sits in the upper 90s and tops out over 100 is exactly the profile that piles up punchouts in October.

Tarik Skubal Under His Strikeout Total

This is the one pick on the card that goes against the obvious star power, and that’s deliberate. Skubal was brilliant in his Dodgers postseason debut, striking out seven over six innings of one-run ball against the Braves in NLDS Game 1, and his track record is absurd: a 1.97 ERA across seven career postseason starts with 63 strikeouts in 45 2/3 innings, lasting at least six innings in every single one. He’s as reliable a strikeout arm as exists in today’s game.

But the opponent in the box matters, and Milwaukee presents a different puzzle than Atlanta did. The Brewers don’t chase, they don’t expand the zone, and they posted one of the lowest full-season swing rates in baseball this year. Their approach is built on putting the bat on the ball and working deep counts rather than hunting for swing-and-miss outcomes against velocity — exactly the style of lineup that’s historically given high-strikeout pitchers a tougher night than usual. Skubal gave up six runs (five earned) over 12 innings against Milwaukee in the regular season, a reminder that this lineup has had some success getting to him even when his stuff looked good.

None of this says Skubal pitches poorly. It says a patient, contact-oriented lineup can cut into the counting-stat strikeout number even in a strong start, which makes the total a sharper target than the pitcher’s name value alone would suggest.

Tarik Skubal Over His Outs Recorded

This is a different market entirely from the strikeout prop above, and it’s worth separating the two. Outs recorded measures length and workload, not swing-and-miss — and on that front, everything points toward Skubal working deep into this game regardless of how the strikeout total shakes out.

He’s lasted at least six innings in every one of his seven career postseason starts, a streak that includes starts against lineups far more dangerous than anything Milwaukee can throw at him power-wise. Dave Roberts and the Dodgers have shown no hesitation letting Skubal pitch deep in October when he’s throwing strikes, and even against a patient Brewers lineup that works counts, contact against him tends to be soft rather than loud — Milwaukee’s season-long approach is built around slapping pitches the other way and getting on base, not squaring up well enough early in counts to chase him from games. If the Dodgers get even a one or two-run cushion, there’s little reason for the Dodgers to pull their Game 1 starter early with their bullpen plans still taking shape for a seven-game series.

Lock These In

Game 1 of the NLCS gives you two different ways to play the same strikeout market intelligently — leaning into Misiorowski’s proven dominance against this exact opponent, and leaning away from name value on Skubal’s strikeout number while still trusting his track record for length. Check the live MLB odds for the latest lines before placing anything, since postseason numbers can move fast.

Two future Cy Young-caliber arms, one potential letdown spot for each of them — that’s the kind of split that sharp bettors look for in a series opener.