Our baseball props bit the dirt hard last night, as they went 0-2. Graham Ashcraft started off hot by striking out 3 hitters in his first 2 innings. Unfortunately, he didn’t strike out a single hitter after that, which burned our Over ticket.
Luis Castillo also caused us some pain against the Twins last night. He carved up 11 strikeouts against Minnesota to cause our Under 8 bet to look laughable. In case you haven’t noticed, MLB props can be tricky!
Want some early MLB action for Thursday? We’ve got you covered! Here are 3 MLB Player Props for July 20. Let’s make some hay while the sun’s shining!
Spencer Strider UNDER 8.5 Strikeouts -110 (FanDuel)
GULP! Here’s a hard bet to make! Strider is arguably the most dominant pitcher in baseball. He regularly throws over 100 MPH and is flat-out filthy when he’s on his game!
So why in the Sam Hill are we playing the Under? Mainly because this Arizona lineup doesn’t strike out that much at all. The D’Backs strike out 7.72 times per game, which ranks 3rd in MLB.
Strider faced Arizona back on June 3rd. He only struck out 7 hitters in 6 innings of work. We’re expecting a similar outcome in today’s early afternoon matchup.
Andrew Abbott OVER 5.5 Strikeouts -150 (BetMGM)
I wish we would’ve jumped on this at -135. However, my numbers project Abbott to have 6.3 strikeouts, so there’s still enough value to pull the trigger.
The rookie lefty has been a beast for Cincy since being called up. We love that Abbott has a devastating curveball that ranks in the 90th percentile in spin rate.
That should serve him well against a Giants lineup that has 4 hitters with a K-rate above 25%. San Fran strikes out 9.45 times per game, so as long as Abbott can work 6 innings, he should go over this total.
George Kirby UNDER 6.5 -125 (PointsBet)
Yes, I know that Minnesota is a walking strikeout waiting to happen. That scares me, but not enough for me to back off this Under. Kirby is a fine starter, but he’s anything but a strikeout machine for the Mariners.
For the season, Kirby is averaging 5.16 strikeouts per start. If we check the median strikeout number for all of his starts, we’re at 4.5. Even if we adjust the number a full strikeout higher because of the Twins’ high K-rate, we’re still in the 5.5 to 6 range.
Kirby knows how to pitch, and he doesn’t walk a lot of guys. That’s commendable, but his Whiff Rate of only 21.2% only puts him in the 17th percentile in MLB. Take the Under!