Our MLB props went 2-1 last night, and we’re locked and loaded for Tuesday! Nick Pivetta easily went over his strikeout prop, as he carved up 10 Mariners. Corbin Burnes also stayed under his number against the Nats to secure a winning night for us.
Our only loser was on JP France, who had more life on his fastball than we expected. He struck out 6 Guardians, which unfortunately busted our under ticket.
Check out our 3 MLB Player Prop Bets for August 1 right here. Good luck with all of your action on the diamond. Let’s keep reeling in some winners!
Brayan Bello OVER 5.5 Strikeouts +110 (FanDuel)
Bello has sneaky-good stuff, even though his overall K-rate only ranks in the 31st percentile. However, his whiff rate is a bit better, as it’s 47th. The main reason for this play though is the Seattle lineup, which strikes out a ton.
The Mariners had the 3rd highest K-rate in the month of July. They have 4 everyday players with a strikeout rate of 25% or higher. They also have 3 part-time players with K-rates above 35%.
Bello has a 30% strikeout rate against this Seattle roster. Look for the 24-year-old righty to get that nasty sinker of his working tonight. Let’s play the Over at this nice plus-money price.
Freddy Peralta UNDER 5.5 Strikeouts -136 (FanDuel)
Here we go again, playing a Brewers power pitcher to stay under his strikeout total against Washington. While it may seem dangerous, this strategy worked like a champ last night, and we’ll follow it again on Tuesday.
Peralta has dynamic stuff, but this Nationals team knows how to put the ball in play. Washington has 5 hitters with K-rates under 20%. Lane Thomas is really the only strikeout-prone guy in their lineup, and even he isn’t too bad.
As crazy as it sounds, the math favors an Under in this spot. Peralta’s median strikeout number is 5. When adjusting for the Nats’ low K-rate, I make this number 4.5. Take the Under!
Gavin Williams UNDER 4.5 Strikeouts -145 (BetMGM)
I just don’t understand this line. Williams has a lot of potential, but his K-rate is just 19.7% this year. That only ranks in the 25th percentile, and his Whiff rate is only in the 48th percentile.
Houston’s low strikeout rate as a team also adds fuel to our fire for the Under. The ‘Stros have 5 guys with K-rates below 19%. Sure, Martin Maldonaldo and Chas McCormick strike out quite often, but the rest of the everyday lineup is pretty adept at putting the ball in play.
Williams has a good fastball that averages around 95 mph. With his 6-6 frame, that pitch probably looks much faster. However, this Houston squad hits the fastball way too well for this high of a strikeout total. Play the Under!
