More than halfway through the regular season, this year’s college football season has been a wild ride for football fans. No one should have predicted Kansas, Tulane, and James Madison – in its first year at the FBS level – would be ranked in the Top 25 during the year.
Bettors, on the other hand, like predictability. Wagering on teams favored by 13.5 points is nearly a sure thing this year with 167 of 177 teams through week eight securing the victory straight up in that situation.
Based on the spread, however, betting favorites of more than 17.5 points barely break even with an 88-86-3 ATS record through the first half of college football and almost even on the under/over prediction.
Are there any safe bets heading into Saturday’s matchups? Read on to see the best bets for this weekend’s college football slate.
Bet $5 on NFL, Get $200
IF Your Team Wins
$1,000 No Sweat First Bet
Win or Get a Refund
Notre Dame vs Syracuse – Betting Preview
Notre Dame travels to upstate New York this week in search of their fifth win against the No. 16 ranked Syracuse Orange Saturday.
Notre Dame has recovered from their 0-2 start to the season with wins in four of their next five games. After losing QB Tyler Buchner in their second game, replacement QB Drew Pyne has played admirably, completing 64 percent of his passes for 1,077 yards and 12 TDs in five games.
Syracuse was undefeated before last week’s 27-21 loss to the Clemson Tigers. The Orange controlled the game throughout, losing the lead midway through the fourth quarter. QB Garrett Shrader played one of his best games, going 18-for-26 for 167 yards and a TD while also running for 71 yards on 21 carries and a TD.
Defensively, the Orange held Clemson out of the end zone on multiple occasions and forced four turnovers. Impressively, the Tigers were limited to only 27 points despite gaining over 450 yards of offense and more than 290 yards on the ground.
Best Bet: Syracuse -2.5
Best Available Odds: -107 at PointsBet
Notre Dame on paper is a better team, but we’re going with the team that’s played the best. Syracuse went into Clemson and led most of the way. Plus, the JMA Wireless Dome (aka, the Carrier Dome) is small and loud when that place is rocking. Playing against the Irish, that place WILL be rocking.
The only concern here is the effects on the Orange and a potential hangover after losing to Clemson. Ask Notre Dame about this as the Fighting Irish played a fantastic game against Ohio State to open the season, and then came out flat against Marshall a week later at home. If Syracuse avoids the letdown, expect the Orange to take care of business against Notre Dame.
Key Betting Trends: Notre Dame vs Syracuse
- Syracuse has gone UNDER five times this season
- Syracuse is 6-1 ATS in 2022, including 4-1 at home
- Syracuse is 2-0 ATS as the underdog in 2022
- Notre Dame has gone UNDER five times this season
- Notre Dame is 2-0 ATS away from home in 2022
- Notre Dame is 1-4 ATS as a favorite this season
Georgia Tech vs Florida State – Betting Preview
As the Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets head to Tallahassee to play ACC rival Florida State, one team has been eliminated from the ACC Championship game while the other remains in contention. Hint: it’s not who you think.
The Seminoles are playing for bowl positioning and where they’ll finish outside of the top spot in the ACC Atlantic Conference. At 4-3 overall and 2-3 in ACC play, Mike Norvell does have Florida State competing at a high level again. Three straight losses against ranked conference foes, however, have the Seminoles needing to win this game to continue their momentum.
While the Yellow Jackets need to win out and have help along the way, it’s a Georgia Tech team that started 1-3 that has a path remaining to the ACC title game in the weak Coastal division. After allowing more than 31 points per game in their first four outings, the Yellow Jackets have shaved nearly two TDs off their average since then on defense.
The Yellow Jackets are 2-1 under interim coach Brent Key after firing head coach Geoff Collins. Georgia Tech rebounded nicely from their 1-3 start, defeating then-ranked Pittsburgh 26-21 on the road before finishing off Duke in overtime the following week.
Best Bet: Georgia Tech +24.5
Best Available Odds: -118 at FanDuel
This isn’t taking anything away from Florida State, and we firmly believe the Seminoles pull out that victory. Instead, this is an acknowledgment of the improved Georgia Tech play in October. The Yellow Jackets will make this closer than a 24-point spread.
Key Betting Trends Georgia Tech vs Florida State
- Georgia Tech has not gone OVER in 2022, going 0-5-2
- Georgia Tech is 2-0 ATS as the visitors this season
- Georgia Tech is 3-2 ATS as underdogs in 2022
- FSU is 3-1 as Moneyline favorites this season.
- FSU has gone 3-2 ATS in their past five games
- FSU is 2-2 ATS against unranked teams in 2022
Michigan State vs Michigan – Betting Preview
When the No. 4 Michigan Wolverines host the Michigan State Spartans, more than pride will be on the line for these two in-state rivals.
For Michigan, their playoff aspirations will be front-and-center as the Wolverines must win this game to continue their march toward the Big Ten Championship game and an important date at the end of the season against the Ohio State Buckeyes.
For Michigan State, the Spartans need to win this game to take one step closer to a bowl game at the end of the season. At 3-4 now, games against Illinois and Penn State loom large. Losing all three games would ensure a 5-7 season as a best-case scenario and leave Michigan State home during the bowl season.
Michigan’s dominant run game has not been stopped this season, and Michigan State is allowing 153 yards per game on the ground. These factors leave bettors to expect the Wolverines to control this game from start to finish despite the bitter rivalry aspect of this contest.
Best Bet: Under 55 Points
Best Available Odds: -107 at PointsBet
Michigan State does not have a dominant defense, but the Spartans will be up for this game. Expect Michigan to run the ball effectively against their in-state rival and control the clock. This will keep the score low heading into the fourth quarter.
This spread is too high to accurately predict. Michigan would need to score over three touchdowns more than their in-state rivals. Only twice in the past 20 years has Michigan outscored Michigan State by more than three TDs, the last time coming in Ann Arbor in 2019.
Key Betting Trends Michigan State vs Michigan
- Michigan is 4-10 against Michigan State since 2008
- Michigan has gone OVER in only one game in 2022
- Michigan is 3-2 ATS in their last five games
- Michigan State is 1-4 ATS as the underdog this season
- Michigan State is 0-2 ATS on the road in 2022
- Michigan State has gone OVER four times this season
Leave a Reply