NFL underdogs went 8-7-1 in Week 4 to slightly extend their record to 35-27-2 in the 2022 season. The winning trend of betting unders has leveled off since the early weeks, going 8-8 for the second straight time in Week 4. The season-long tally for under bettors is still 36-28 as point totals have not regressed to the mean through four weeks.
Our NFL best bets cashed in during another 2-1 week to bring our record on the season to 8-5. Both spread plays were winners with the Raiders and Ravens both covering at home, while the Eagles and Jaguars just barely eclipsed the point total to account for our only loss. We look to continue the winning ways in Week 5.
Pittsburgh Steelers +14 @ Buffalo Bills
Pittsburgh made the switch from Mitchell Trubisky to Kenny Pickett in Week 4’s loss to the New York Jets, and the offense seemed to show a spark that was lacking in the first three games. Pickett did throw three interceptions, but you could make an excuse that two of those either should have been caught or wouldn’t have mattered.
The bigger picture is that no one wants to take the Steelers on the road in Buffalo. This line may actually continue to extend beyond the 14-point spread, but either way, this pick will be in the minority.
Buffalo hasn’t covered either of their last two games as much smaller favorites than this. As Scott Van Pelt says, this is a hold onto your butt special.
Chargers @ Browns: UNDER 47.5
These two teams have gone over the point totals in five of their combined eight games so far, and this number reflects that. The Chargers started the season going under in games against the Raiders and Chiefs where the total was 53 both times. LA also scored 10 points in a game against Jacksonville that went over the total of 46 because they allowed the Jags to score 38.
The Browns, yes those Cleveland Browns, are 6th in the NFL in scoring and rank second in both rushing yards and touchdowns in 2022. They’ve faced a below-average schedule thus far and will be tested against a talented Chargers unit in a game that feels like the over will be the popular play for bettors.
Falcons @ Buccaneers: OVER 48
Tampa Bay wraps up a three-game home stand against their division rival and they seemed to tap into their scoring ability in Week 4 against Kansas City. Atlanta has gone over the total in three of their four games so far, and the offense has been rolling despite the quarterback change that was made to begin this season.
The Falcons will miss leading rusher Cordarrelle Patterson for several weeks after he had a reported minor knee procedure this week. However, that shouldn’t impact their ability to move the ball and find the end zone.
Tom Brady threw as many touchdowns in Week 4 as he’d thrown through the first three weeks, and Atlanta has allowed the 8th-most passing yards in the NFL this season. If his receiving corps can consistently remain on the field, Brady and Tampa should re-establish themselves as an offensive juggernaut in the NFC.