While it’s not quite time for a quarter-season recap just yet, there have been some interesting developments in the NFL schedule and standings through three weeks. The Miami Dolphins and Philadelphia Eagles sit atop each conference. Both are 3-0 and the last undefeated teams remaining in 2022.
Kansas City and Denver are tied at the top of the AFC West despite the Chiefs scoring more than twice as many points as the Broncos. The Jacksonville Jaguars are alone in first place in the AFC South after being 130-1 to win this year’s Super Bowl.
Week 4 kicks off with Thursday Night Football as the Dolphins travel to Cincinnati to defend that undefeated record, and we look ahead to Sunday’s action for this week’s best bets.
It was a big showing for underdogs in the NFL during Week 3, as they went 11-5 to bring the season tally to 27-20-1 through three weeks of games. NFL unders, which had won at a 62.5% rate through the first two weeks, went 8-8 in Week 3 to bring their total for the season to 28-20.
As for our NFL best bets, we bounced back with a 2-1 record last week and enter Week 4 at 6-4 for the season. Here are our 3 best bets for NFL Week 4.
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Jacksonville Jaguars @ Philadelphia Eagles: UNDER 48.5
The Jags have been impressive to begin the 2022 season, beating the Colts and Chargers by a combined margin of 62-10 in back-to-back weeks after narrowly losing in Washington. Their offensive point total ranks 8th in the NFL and 5th in the AFC. Jacksonville’s 46-point scoring margin through three weeks is 2nd in the NFL.
Enter the Philadelphia Eagles, who have allowed the 7th-fewest points through three games including a combined 15 points by the Vikings and Commanders in back-to-back weeks. Jacksonville has allowed the 4th-fewest points to opposing teams this season, and we think the defense will prevail in this contest. We expect a low-scoring game so take the Under!
Denver Broncos @ Las Vegas Raiders -2
Denver is somehow 2-1 with a two-game lead on the Raiders in the division through three weeks. This is largely due to the fact that the Broncos have played the Seahawks, Texans, and 49ers with Jimmy G at quarterback.
During that time, the Raiders played the Chargers, Cardinals, and Titans. They still have Kansas City looming on the schedule before an early bye week.
Las Vegas has been thinking that if they get to that bye week at 2-3, they still have a great chance to compete for a playoff spot. If they drop either of their two next games, that feat becomes immensely more difficult in a talented division and conference.
This is almost a must-win game for the Raiders, and we think they’ll treat it as such against a team that has scored three offensive touchdowns this season.
Buffalo Bills @ Baltimore Ravens +3.5
We faded a Buffalo and Miami scoring frenzy last week and it paid off. This week, we like the team hosting the odds-on Super Bowl favorite and catching 3.5 points at home.
Baltimore has covered their last five games when they were a home underdog and won three of those outright. This includes three games last season, when the Ravens beat the Chiefs in Week 2 and then covered against the Packers and Rams in Weeks 15 and 17, respectively.
Getting more than a field goal is key here for a team that plays up to their competition and dominates special teams. Give us the Ravens and the points at home.
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