The 2022 NFL season is beginning to take shape after two weeks of game action. The Buffalo Bills look completely overwhelming, dominating both the defending Super Bowl champions and the reigning top seed in the AFC in back-to-back games. They look to be on a collision course with the Chiefs, who are tied with the Bucs for the second-best point differential in the league.
Jacksonville is the only AFC South team with a victory so far. The defending AFC-champion Bengals are 0-2, while Joe Burrow has been sacked 13 times despite a supposedly reloaded offensive line.
After all of that, NFL underdogs are now 16-15-1 through two weeks of games. More consistent value has been found in betting totals, where the under has cashed in 20 out of 32 games (62.5%). Our best bets crashed back to earth last week after a strong start, and we enter Week 3 with a 4-3 record.
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Atlanta Falcons @ Seattle Seahawks: UNDER 42
The Falcons are the 9th highest scoring team through two weeks of this season. Their Week 3 opponent, Seattle, is tied for the 3rd-lowest point scoring total in the NFL. Something has to give in this matchup, where the total opened at 43 and is starting to dip.
Seattle’s offensive output has declined in their first season without Russell Wilson, while Atlanta has continued to score at a high rate after Matt Ryan’s departure to Indianapolis. Atlanta’s proven their strength on the ground, ranking in the top 10 in rushing yards.
Seattle has struggled to establish much of anything with Geno Smith at the reigns. Expect the clock to stay running in this matchup where we’re going under the total.
Buffalo Bills at Miami Dolphins: UNDER 54
This will not be a popular pick. Miami not only just had a quarterback throw for six touchdowns, but they also gave up 38 points in a home win against Baltimore. All Buffalo has done in the meantime is outscore the Rams and Titans by 55 points combined and somehow raise their already sky-high Super Bowl expectations for a starving fan base.
This game has all the makings of a shootout for the ages. The total has jumped more than a field goal since it opened at 50. We will go against the herd, close our eyes, and bet the under in Miami.
Kansas City Chiefs at Indianapolis Colts +6.5
You may be sensing a trend at this point. The Colts just lost 24-0 to the Jacksonville Jaguars in a game the world thought they would dominate to avenge their Week 18 loss in 2021.
Kansas City beat the Chargers in a close Thursday Night Football battle to move to 2-0 on the young season. They hit the road to face a Colts team that also has a tie against Houston on their record from Week 1.
Seeing a team favored by nearly a touchdown on the road against a Colts roster loaded with talent and coming off an embarrassing loss just doesn’t sit right. Kansas City should beat Indianapolis like a drum, and everyone knows it. Games like this are why they keep building sportsbooks around the country, and we’ll fade the momentum of both teams heading into this seemingly lopsided matchup.