2023 NFL Best Bets – Week 13
We have signs of a pulse after a 2-1 result in Week 12. Our season-long mark has crept back above .500 for the first time in a few weeks and now stands at 13-12-2. It’s not quite profitable, but we’re looking ahead to the opportunities over the final six weeks of the regular season.
Six teams, including the Bills and Ravens, are on bye this week, the most since Week 7. We’ve honed in on three plays for our best bet column and outline our reasoning next.
Falcons @ Jets: UNDER 34 (FanDuel)
The Jets’ struggles on offense have been well-documented this season, and the inconsistent production from the Falcons has made for one of the lowest totals of the year. According to BetIQ, only 52 games since 2003 have closed lower than 34 points. That’s fewer than 1% of the games played in that time.
Atlanta is 22nd in scoring offense this season and has been significantly worse on the road. They gain nearly a full yard per play less and have managed just 15 points per game away from home. Their passing game is the main culprit, averaging just 6.6 yards per attempt on the road compared to 7.3 at home.
New York’s defense has allowed five passing TDs while compiling ten interceptions and an opponent passer rating of 67.9 at MetLife Stadium. We expect a defensive struggle in New Jersey this Sunday and will play the under at FanDuel.
Houston Texans -3.5 (Caesars)
Houston is very good at two things this season: throwing the ball and defending the run. They rank 2nd in passing offense and 3rd in net yards per pass attempt while giving up just 3.6 yards per carry defensively (3rd in NFL). That’s a solid identity that DeMeco Ryans has built and seen success from in his first year as the Texans’ coach.
They are facing a Broncos team that’s won five in a row with a strong run game and a defense that’s creating turnovers. Denver has 16 takeaways during their winning streak and ranks first in the league in that category.
Houston cannot only defend the run but also ranks fifth in the NFL in fewest turnovers. In this meeting of playoff hopefuls, we’ll take the Texans and eat the points at home when we place our bets at Caesars.
Browns @ Rams: UNDER 39.5 (DraftKings)
The Rams nearly got to this number by themselves in a blowout win against Arizona last week, but that is not indicative of their season-long performance. While LA just got Matthew Stafford back from injury, Cleveland is struggling to produce more than 10 points since DTR has been starting for them.
LA is middle of the road by most statistical measures this season, and Cleveland is awful at putting points on the board in their current state. The differentiator in this matchup is the Browns’ defense. They are 2nd in net yards per pass attempt allowed and opponent points per drive this season.
Cleveland has been weaker against the run, where they are just inside the top half of teams in opponent yards per carry and have given up 12 rushing TDs, but their 7th-ranked scoring defense overall offsets this.
We are confident these teams will combine for fewer than 40 points and will take the under in SoFi Stadium with this bet at DraftKings Sportsbook.
Sports Betting Contributor
Nicholas brings over 10 years of sports betting and DFS experience to our team. He’s a player prop specialist who holds a degree from Penn State University. He enjoys a nice round of golf in his downtime and covers the NFL, NBA, baseball, CFB, and CBB. Mr. Berault is currently on a great run with his NFL best bets, so be sure to check those out!