2 College Football Best Bets for Wednesday, October 4

2 College Football Best Bets for Wednesday, October 4

We’ve reached the return of Wednesday football, folks! Yeeehaaw! Thanks to a couple of Conference USA matchups, we don’t have to wait until Thursday.

Here are 2 College Football Best Bets for Wednesday, October 4. Good luck with all of your bets!

Jacksonville State +3.5 over Middle Tennessee State

The 4-1 Gamecocks have won back-to-back games after losing to Coastal Carolina in early September. Logan Smothers, the dual-threat QB, has been uber-efficient. He has thrown 5 touchdowns and no interceptions while also adding another 5TDs on the ground. Malik Jackson has provided a stable rushing attack as he is averaging just over 100 yards per game on the ground.

The defense has been great, allowing just 15ppg, ranking them 29th in the country. Along with that, they are 30th in the country in yards allowed per game (337.5).

The Blue Raiders have had a tough start to the year and are currently 1-4. Nicholas Vattiato, like Smothers, has been trying his best to help the team with both his arm and his legs. He is completing almost 70% of his passes for over 230 yards per game while also leading the team in carries with 49 and the next closest being Jaiden Credle’s 36.

Vattiato and Credle were the reason the Blue Raiders picked up their lone victory over Murray State. The defense needs to step up, they are allowing over 30ppg which is 200th in the country.

This line does seem a bit fishy but we are going to take the bait. Smothers’s ability to extend plays and help the run game be a top 20 in the country will be the story here.

Middle Tennessee St. is going to have trouble getting to their average over 18ppgs due to the defense of the Gamecocks who have been able to shut down inferior offenses.

Key Trends:

  • Jax St is 4-2 ATS in their last 6 games played in October.
  • Jax St is 3-1-1 ATS this season.
  • MTST is 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games.
  • MTST is 1-4-1 ATS in their last 6 games at home.

New Mexico State -5 over FIU

The Panthers opened their season with a loss at Louisiana Tech 22-17. They then went on a 3-game win streak before having it snapped last week vs. Liberty when they fell 38-6 at home.

Shomari Lawrence and Kejon Owens have been averaging over 100 yards per game on the ground while Kris Mitchell has been the go-to guy for Keyone Jenkins. Mitchell has 23 receptions for 459 yards and 4 touchdowns. The defense has had trouble stopping the run, allowing over 225 yards per game.

The Aggies have been disappointing to date, sitting at just 2-3 on the year. They are coming off a 20-17 loss in Hawaii where they could only get 155 yards passing. Diego Pavia is averaging over 50 yards per game on the ground and just 215 through the air.

He has 10 touchdown tosses to 4 picks which is good enough for a 182.6 QBR. Much like their opponent Wednesday, the Aggies have not been able to do a solid job in slowing down the opponents’ offenses.

We like the Aggies to get right here at home as a short favorite. They are converting on almost 48% of their 3rd down attempts, compared to the Panthers who are ranked 198th with a 24.6%.

The Aggies will be able to extend drives and have a dominant rushing attack as they are averaging over 200 a game. The Aggies have 3 backs averaging over 40 yards per game and we wouldn’t be surprised if all 3 break the 50-yard mark in this one.

Key Trends:

  • FIU is 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games in week 6.
  • NMST is 9-3 ATS in their last 12 games.
  • NMST is 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games played in October.

Bill Christy


Sports Betting Contributor

Bill is a high-volume sports bettor who runs his own sports investing business. He has an uncanny ability to find tons of mathematical edges on each day’s sports betting card. Bill covers all sports but his bread and butter is UFC, Golf, and College Hoops. Find him on X at @LarrysLocks2