2 College Football Best Bets for Thursday, October 5

2 College Football Best Bets for Thursday, October 5

The NFL will be on center stage this Thursday, but don’t forget about CFB! Here are 2 College Football Best Bets for Thursday, October 5. Good luck, folks!

Liberty -17.5 over Sam Houston State

The Bearkats are still in search of their 1st win of the season after starting 0-4 to this point. Despite losing, they did a decent job keeping both BYU and Air Force offenses in check. They allowed an average of 13.5ppg between the two offenses.

Unfortunately, they have only been averaging 9.5ppg through the 1st 4 games. Keegan Shoemaker has only completed 56% of his passes for an average of 159 yards. He has been sacked 5 times and thrown 4 interceptions which are both more than the 4 touchdown passes he has thrown.

On the opposite side of the spectrum, the Flames have gone undefeated to this point of the season. They are averaging 40ppg through the 4 games they have played while only allowing an average of 25ppg. They are 12th in the country, averaging over 500 yards per game, with a majority being on the ground.

They are 5th in the country on the ground, averaging over 270 yards per game. Quinton Cooley is averaging over 80 yards per game on the ground. Kaidon Salter is 2nd on the team in rushing while also handling the aerial attack as well. He has been smart with his passes and has thrown for 10 touchdowns to just 1 interception.

While Sam Houston State has hung around in some recent games, we expect Liberty to blow the doors off them. The Bearkats have not shown signs of being able to stop the run and that is Liberty’s strong suit. Liberty should be able to break the 300-yard total on the ground and get this win by at least 3 touchdowns.

Key Trends:

  • SHST is 0-2 ATS in their last 2 games.
  • Liberty is 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games.
  • Liberty is 4-2 ATS in their last 6 games played in week 6.

Western Kentucky -5.5 over Louisiana Tech

After defeating South Florida and Houston Baptist, the Hilltoppers lost back-to-back games against Ohio State and Troy. They bounced back last week with a win over Middle Tennessee State 31-10, covering by 2 touchdowns. They have not been able to stabilize a rushing attack (96.8ypg) but have found success through the air.

Austin Reed is completing just over 61% of his passes and averages 273ypg. He has been sacked just twice this year and has thrown the same number of interceptions while connecting for 11 touchdowns. The defense has not been a bright spot as they have been allowing an average of almost 30ppg.

La Tech has been a bit of the opposite on offense. Their run game has been marginally better than their passing game. Tyre Shelton and Keith Willis Jr. each have 3 touchdowns and are combining to average 166 yards per game on the ground.

Willis is now out indefinitely with an ankle injury, so it will mainly rest on Shelton’s shoulders. The defense has had some difficulties with staying disciplined as the team is averaging almost 120 yards of penalties.

This line has jumped around a bit but we believe it has gotten too low not to take the Hilltoppers here on the road to cover the number. With Willis being out and the QB spot being a bit of a question mark as of late, we feel much more comfortable backing Austin Reed and the strong passing attack of the Hilltoppers.

Key Trends:

  • WKY is 12-6 ATS in their last 18 games.
  • WKY is 6-3 ATS in their last 9 away games.
  • La Tech is 1-2 ATS in their last 3 conference games.
  • La Tech is 2-5 ATS in their last 7 games against an opponent in the East Division.

Bill Christy

Sports Betting Contributor

Bill is a high-volume sports bettor who runs his own sports investing business. He has an uncanny ability to find tons of mathematical edges on each day’s sports betting card. Bill covers all sports but his bread and butter is UFC, Golf, and College Hoops. Find him on X at @LarrysLocks2