2 College Football Best Bets for Thursday, October 12

2 College Football Best Bets for Thursday, October 12

While most of the world is watching Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs dismantle the Broncos, we’re going to be making money with college football. Here are 2 CFB best bets for Thursday, October 12. Good luck with your action.

West Virginia -3 over Houston

After an opening drubbing at the hands of Penn State, the Mountaineers have gone on to win 4 straight games. Their latest win came on the road against TCU 24-21. The run game has been the main piece of the offense.

They are averaging close to 200 yards per game on the ground. While CJ Donaldson Jr leads the team on the ground, Garrett Greene has complimented him nicely as a dual-threat QB.

The defense ranks inside the Top 50 in points allowed per game at 19. They are also 6th in the country in opponent’s 3rd down conversion percentage (26.79%).

The Cougars are just 2-3 on the year with wins over UTSA and Sam Houston State. They are coming off a 49-28 loss at Texas Tech. They were only down by 7 at the break before being shut out in the 2nd half.

Donovan Smith has been leading an effective passing attack for the Cougars. He is averaging 270 passing yards per game and tossed 3 picks to his 9 touchdowns. He also added 3 more scores on the ground as he is 2nd on the team in rushing.

The Cougars have proven time and again that they cannot compete with teams from the Power 5 conferences. While the Mountaineers have taken care of business against all inferior opponents. Here, we have both trends aligning and believe they will be able to control the game on the ground and grind out a nice road win here.

Key Trends:

  • WVa is 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games.
  • WVa is 5-2 ATS in their last 7 games played on a Thursday when playing on the road.
  • Hou is 2-7 ATS in their last 9 games at home.
  • Hou is 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games played in week 7.

SMU Mustangs -12 over East Carolina Pirates

SMU is 3-2 on the year and has been effective on both sides of the ball. While allowing just 18.4ppg to their opponents (45th) they are also averaging 33.8ppg (59th). Preston Stone has 6 receivers averaging between 30 and 50 yards per game.

He has been carrying a 137.7 QBR and is completing nearly 60% of his passes. Their latest win came at home over visiting Charlotte 34-16. They were able to accumulate over 225 yards on the ground and will look to do the same on the road against ECU here.

The Pirates shutout Gardner-Webb 44-0 in late September. However, this was their only win of the year. They have lost all 4 of their other games by an average of 16.75ppg. They are in dead last of the American Athletic Conference.

They are barely averaging 300 yards per game which places them 227th in the country. Alex Flinn and Mason Garcia have each played QB at times and have combined for just 2 touchdowns and 7 interceptions. Nothing has gone right for the Pirates offense this year.

ECU just does not have an offense capable of competing with a team like SMU. The Mustangs are going to have little resistance reaching their 33ppg scoring average and should be able to hold the Pirates to single-digit scoring. We like the Mustangs here to blow out the Pirates on the road.

Key Trends:

  • SMU is 4-2 ATS in their last 6 games against an opponent in the East Division.
  • ECU is 3-7 ATS in their last 10 games against an opponent in the American Athletic Conference.
  • ECU is 0-5 ATS in their last 5 games against an opponent in the West Division.

Bill Christy

Sports Betting Contributor

Bill is a high-volume sports bettor who runs his own sports investing business. He has an uncanny ability to find tons of mathematical edges on each day’s sports betting card. Bill covers all sports but his bread and butter is UFC, Golf, and College Hoops. Find him on X at @LarrysLocks2