The Week 7 Monday night game features the Patriots in a familiar role as heavy favorites. The line in this game opened at Pats +10 and nearly 75% of the tickets are on New England. With that said, dogs have been killing it this season and are especially dangerous in low total games like this one (42 points).
The smart money has already moved the line down to Pats +9, but can the Jets actually find a way to keep this close and if so, what players hold fantasy value? Take a minute to answer our two-question Monday Night poll before we jump into our thoughts on the game.
Hello Rookie NFL Insight
This game looks like a colossal mismatch on paper. The Patriots have an NFL-best +142 point differential, averaing 32 PPG and giving up just 8 PPG. The Jets have a -60 point differential, averaging 13 PPG while giving up nearly 25 PPG. The Jets offense was clearly much improved with Darnold back last week, and the defense will hope to get a similar boost from Mosely’s return here in week 7.
There are significant injuries for both teams heading into Monday night. For the Patriots, Josh Gordon, Rex Burkhead, Matt Lacosse, and Ryan Izzo are all out. Julian Edelman, Patrick Chung, and Phillip Dorsett are questionable. Michael Bennett is of course suspended for this game.
The Jets are going to get CJ Mosley back for this one, but it looks like they will be without TE Chris Herndon yet again as he DNP all week. The Jets also have offensive line concerns as Ryan Kalil is questionable and Kelvin Beachum and Kelechi Osemele are both doubtful.
Our DraftKings Core for Monday Night
I generally roll with two DraftKings lineups for these one-game slates. I use one as my primary lineup and the other as an alternative game script lineup. I try to build these lineups off of how I feel the game script could play out, but oftentimes value dictates how I put them together.
For this week 7 Monday night slate, value played a much larger role on FanDuel than on DraftKings.
I want to use Brady, Edelman, and Dorsett as the core for my lineups tonight, and all three players are in all four lineups we are putting out for this slate. Once I established this core, it was just a matter of piecing together value around them, based on how I see this game playing out.
To me, the only clear matchup the Jets can target here is Crowder vs Jonathan Jones. Jones has easily been the weak link of this Pats secondary, giving up 172 yards and a touchdown on 14 completions in the slot this season. That is a QB rating near 100, which is nearly double what Gilmore and McCourty are allowing.
On the other side of the ball, we know Edelman is going to be busy. He has averaged over 10 targets over the past month and has averaged just under 20 DraftKings PPG over that stretch. The other matchup to target here is Phillip Dorsett lining up on the left side of the Pats offense, going up against Jets corner Daryl Roberts, who is giving up 1.73 yards/route covered.
While Sony Michel is a risky play at Captain, he probably has the most multi-touchdown upside in this slate. The Patriots have also shown they will ride him to run out the clock in the second half of games. He could see 20+ carries again this week if this one gets out of hand.
As much as I hate starting Ryan Griffin, he did score in Darnold’s first game back. You also have to know that you are going to get 1x value out of someone on your roster, why not make it a guy that is only $1,400 and allows you to pay up elsewhere?
Our FanDuel Core for Monday Night
I always prefer to have both quarterbacks in FanDuel’s single-game format. The value tends to be much higher at the QB position than any of the RB/WR options.
If you think the Jets are going to struggle to move the ball in this game, which I am sure most of us do, then there are really two-game scripts to target. Either Tom blows up and you want him at MVP with shares of his pass-catchers, or the Pats grind out a road divisional win and Sony Michel sees a ton of work and at least one touchdown.
While I am using Michel as an MVP pick on both sites, he certainly does not come without risk. He only got 9 carries in this matchup earlier this season and still has almost no role in the passing game. That being said, he did have 145 yards and a touchdown in New York last season.
As far as value on FanDuel, it is all about Jakobi Meyers for me. He has looked phenomenal whenever he has gotten the opportunity to play and should see a 70%+ snap count again this week with Gordon out.