We return from our Thanksgiving hiatus with pure winners for the NFL Week 14 DFS main slate. This article breaks down our picks and the reasoning behind them for the main slates on both FanDuel and DraftKings.
Before we share who we like this week, let us know what your favorite plays are in our week 14 poll:
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Our DraftKings and FanDuel Targets for NFL Week 14
Before we jump into our week 14 picks, let’s start with a very basic breakdown of the week 14 matchups. Below are the top team implied totals for this slate, as well as a comparison to the team’s scoring average for the season.
As you can see from the chart, the only teams with considerable differences between there yearly scoring averages and implied totals are the Packers, Falcons, and Jets. Not pictured are the Browns, who average only 20.4 PPG on the year and have a Week 14 implied total of 23.6.
|Team||Opponent||Implied Total||Avg PPG|
DraftKings Salary – $5,800 | FanDuel Salary – $7,300
It’s time to jump on board with Tannehill. The fact that he established a floor of 15 DraftKings points in a game that completed 77% of his passes last week says all you need to know. The previous three weeks saw him average over 27 DraftKings PPG, thanks in part to nearly 40 rushing YPG and 3 rushing touchdowns. The only downside with Tannehill is that you are not stacking a Titans WR with him, they are simply too unpredictable. The matchup here is also phenomenal. The Raiders are still somehow a bottom 3 pass defense despite playing the Chargers, Bengals, Jets, and a Chiefs team that essentially ran out the clock for 3 quarters in a 40-9 game.
DraftKings Salary – $6,400 | FanDuel Salary – $7,300
We know the Chargers want to be a run-first football team. Rivers is struggling, Whisenhunt is gone, and Gordon is the focal point. Gordon has averaged 5 YPC over the last three weeks, is back to roughly a 65% snap count, and I think the only thing he really needed to get back on track is a matchup like the one he has this week. This Jacksonville defense has clearly mailed it in. No team is giving up more fantasy PPG to opposing RB’s over the last five weeks, and that is despite not giving up only 13 receptions and 0 touchdown catches to the position! Compare that to the second-worst defense vs RB’s, the Texans, who have allowed 30 receptions for 300 yards and 4 touchdowns. Translation: teams are running all over the Jags right now. They have allowed 641 rushing yards and 7 touchdowns in their last four games.
DraftKings Salary – $5,400 | FanDuel Salary – $6,000
Freeman faces the only defense in football that can give Jacksonville a run for their money in the Carolina Panthers. The Panthers have allowed a league-high 9 rushing touchdowns and over 6 YPC over their last 5 games. Like Gordon, Freeman is trending in the right direction in terms of both snap count and role in the Falcons offense. After seeing a season-high 80% snap count before the injury, he returned to a healthy 67% snap count and will be playing on 9 days rest after facing the Saints on Thanksgiving night. After fighting injury and bad matchups for nearly two months, I think Freeman has his best game of the season here in week 14.
DraftKings Salary – $8,000 | FanDuel Salary – $8,400
Adams has 13 catches for 103 yards and 3 touchdowns since returning from injury, and I expect him to double that yardage total here in week 14. Washington has not been awful against the pass this season but has played one of the softest schedules in the league. They are coming off of a game where they allowed Panthers receivers D.J. Moore and Curtis Samuel to put up 13/130/2. Adams will re-establish himself as a top 3 fantasy WR here in the fantasy playoffs and that starts with this beatable home matchup.
DraftKings Salary – $7,200 | FanDuel Salary – $7,700
Evans and Godwin have such a negative correlation with one-another you almost have to start one or the other. That being said, Godwin averages 10 DraftKings PPG fewer at home than on the road, so maybe this is an Evans week (who does play slightly better at home). Legitimate #1 WR’s have decimated the Colts at times this season. Julio had 8/130/1, Hopkins had 15/200/3 in two games, and DJ Chark put up 8/104/2.
DraftKings Salary – $5,300 | FanDuel Salary – $6,000
With Anderson likely to see shadow coverage from the emerging Nik Needham, this feels like another Crowder week for the Jets. Crowder actually has PFF’s top-rated matchup, facing Jamol Wiltz in the slot, a matchup that he put up 8/83/1 in at the Dolphins earlier this season. While he certainly doesn’t have the big play, high ceiling that Anderson has, Crowder has a much higher floor thanks in part to his 7+ targets per game.
DraftKings Salary – $6,200 | FanDuel Salary – $5,800
With Hunter Renfrow out, Tyrell Williams struggling massively, and nobody else stepping up, the Raiders have to throw to somebody here. We know the Titans are going to score points, they are averaging nearly 30 PPG since Tannehill took over. Lucky for Oakland and Waller, the Titans are sneakily terrible against the tight end position. They gave up 6/73/1 to Doyle last week, and earlier this season gave up 7/75/1 to Kelce, 6/97 to Hunter Henry, and 9/130 to Austin Hooper. Despite a relatively high $5,300 salary on DraftKings, I think Waller has a legit chance to go well over 4x value here.
DraftKings Salary – $3,300 | FanDuel Salary – $5,500
Irv Smith is actually my favorite overall value play this week. While it’s disappointing that he can’t steal a few red-zone targets from Rudolph, we predicted after the Lions game that he would be used as the Vikings #2 WR with Thielen out and the targets don’t lie. He caught 5 of 6 targets for 60 yards against the Lions earlier this season, and it really would have been much more if Diggs wasn’t breaking off chunk plays at will. Slay was out for over half of that game, which allowed Diggs to go crazy, but Slay has actually done a great job on Diggs historically, and I think we will see him slow him down again this week. That should mean more opportunities for Smith in a great matchup.
NFL Week 14 Optimal Lineups for DraftKings Millionaire Maker and FanDuel Sunday Million
So now that we have established our favorite plays for the NFL Week 14 main slates on FanDuel and DraftKings, how are we building our lineups?
Below is an example of our favorite lineups for each website. Obviously you will want to put your own spin on any of our plays, or maybe you completely disagree with our take. If so let us know either in the comment section or in the poll at the top of the page!
Make sure you check out the podcast for this week for an even more in-depth breakdown of how we analyzed this slate!