2020 Running Back Sleepers

Chris Lollis

Clearwater, FL

April 12, 2020

The running back position is easily the hardest to find sleepers for. This is what makes it the most important position in fantasy football. The guys at the top of the draft are typically really, really good, and the guys at the bottom of the draft typically worthless.

That being said, we think we have five RB’s that are flying under the radar right now and offer significant upside where they are currently ranked. Let us know which sleeper RB of this group offers the most value at their current ranking.

The running back position is the most important position in fantasy football. The problem is it is also the shallowest position. There tend to be 20-25 running backs with roles large enough to be relevant, depending on your league’s scoring.

The names at the top of this position in 2019 were who we thought they were (see below). That being said, the group of RB’s that finished 10-20 at the position included players like Kenyan Drake, Miles Sanders, and Devin Singletary… all guys that made this article at this time last season.

What we like to do with our sleeper articles is to not only highlight true sleepers but to identify players we call tier jumpers. Our pick last season was Derrick Henry, who was being drafted as RB16 but we thought had top 5 upside.

Our favorite tier jumpers for 2020 could be better defined as comeback picks. We love the upside of the move to Houston for David Johnson and think James Conner will finish 2020 as a top 10 fantasy RB. Here are the five running backs we think hold the most value at their current ADP.

Let us know who you like in the poll above and comment section below!

Austin Ekeler

RB   |   Los Angeles Chargers   |   Current Pos. Rank: 12
It is hard to believe Ekeler finished 2020 at RB7 in standard leagues and RB4 in PPR leagues, but is currently ranked at RB 12 despite Melvin Gordon leaving for Denver. Ekeler will be a top 8 back again in 2020, and will likely be even more consistent given his snap count should jump back up to 60%+.

While the offensive line is far from the league’s best, the addition of Bulaga makes this arguably the best Chargers line we have seen in a decade. Bulaga, Pouncey, and Trai Turner are all pro-bowlers, while the team now has depth with Scott Quesenberry, Trent Scott, and Forrest Lamp all moving to reserve roles.

Shane Steichen returns as OC, the offensive line will be improved, and Taylor is not a massive downgrade for Ekeler. It’s worth noting that three of LeSean McCoy’s best seasons came with Taylor at QB. The key is the snap count… if he gets the snaps he will produce. Ekeler was RB2 in the NFL in games where he played at least 65% of the Chargers snaps, averaging 26+ fantasy PPG.

David Johnson

RB   |   Arizona Cardinals   |   Current Pos. Rank: 25
After seeing what Carlos Hyde and Duke Johnson did in Houston’s system last season, it is hard not to get excited about the potential a healthy David Johnson has here.

Since putting up one of the greatest fantasy seasons we have ever seen in 2016 (2,100 yards and 20 touchdowns), Johnson has struggled through injury and anemic offenses. A wrist cost him almost the entire 2017 season, the brutal combination of Josh Rosen, Sam Bradford, and Mike Glennon made 2018 miserable, and he never recovered from an early ankle injury last year.

Finally healthy, in an explosive offense, Johnson will undoubtedly outplay his current RB 25 ranking, and we would not be surprised to see him finish as a top 12 back in 2020.

James Conner

RB   |   Pittsburgh Steelers   |   Current Pos. Rank: 24
Of the guys listed in this group of sleepers, I think Conner has the best chance at dramatically outproducing his current ADP. The Steelers are a rare organization that prefers a bellcow back, and have made it 100% clear they view Conner as that back.

We were fans of both Jaylen Samuels and Benny Snell heading into 2019, but the dropoff from Conner to those to was significant and clearly evident in the 6 games he missed. In total, Conner only gave us 7 full games during the 2020 season, but did put up solid numbers in those games:

In fact, if we look at the 7 games Conner was healthy for last season, he averaged 13.7 fantasy PPG over that stretch, which would have put him at RB8 for the year.

The Steelers did have some turnover on the offensive line this past offseason, but this is still one of the better run-blocking groups in football. In the end, Big Ben returning is going to fix most of the woes this offense experienced last season.

Derrius Guice

RB   |   Washington Redskins   |   Current Pos. Rank: 30
While I do like the player, this pick is in no way a reflection on Derrius Guice. It is more a reflection of what Derrius Guice could be in 2020. If he stays healthy.

While we don’t know much about Scott Turner the play-caller, we do know a lot about his dad, and a lot about what they did in Carolina. Clearly Rivera and Turner want a bell-cow back, and they have already stated they believe that Guice is that back.

On one hand, there is plenty of room for optimism: three-down backs are virtually gone from the NFL and Guice has the potential to be one here in 2020. It is far from a lock, however, as the team picked up the option on Adrian Peterson, drafted big-play machine Antonio Gipson, and signed Peyton Barber and JD McKissic.

Even if McKissic wins a third-down role and AP steals some early-down work, there should be plenty of work for Guice here as the Redskins will likely be a run-first team with Dwayne Haskins playing behind a patchwork offensive line.

For me, he has way too much upside when you compare it to the backs going in the picks ahead of him (Sony Michel, Cam Akers, Devin Singletary, Kareem Hunt). If Guice ends up being the ‘Christian McCaffrey’ of this offense, however bad it may be, he will vastly outplay his current RB 30 ranking.

Matt Breida

RB   |   Miami Dolphins   |   Current Pos. Rank: 39
A year removed from having arguably the worst rushing offense in football, the Dolphins have clearly made improving the run game the focus of their offseason. They started by signing Jordan Howard, reworking their interior offensive line with Ereck Flowers and Ted Karras, then traded a fifth-round pick for Matt Breida.

Howard and Breida could not be more different. Howard is a career 4 YPC RB, with one run of 40+ yards in his last 300 attempts. Breida averages over 5 YPC, is a big play machine and has been the fastest ball carrier in the NFL each of the last two seasons.

It isn’t all roses with Breida, however. His 3s behind the line of scrimmage per run show the sort of indecisiveness that could clash with “new” OC Chan Gailey.

So, who wins out here? We are willing to bet the Dolphins learned that everyone else was right and they were wrong when it came to Kenyon Drake, and are not going to let that happen again with Matt Breida in 2020.

Look for Breida’s total touches to jump from roughly 10/game during his time with the 49ers to 15/game in 2020. We think that increased role, an improved offensive line in Miami, and the league’s third easiest schedule, will allow Breida to finish considerably higher than his current RB39 ranking.

Damien Harris

RB   |   New England Patriots   |   Current Pos. Rank: 64
Go win a job Damien Harris. It is no secret that the Patriots plan on running the ball a lot in 2020. Whether it’s Jarret Stidham, Brian Hoyer, Andy Dalton, or some other QB taking over for Brady, this offense will run through the RB position.

Given Belichick’s history with running backs, nobody should be surprised if Harris comes out of nowhere to be the guy here in 2020. Keep in mind that the leading rusher on this team was Stevan Ridley in 2014, Jonas Grey in 2015, LeGarrette Blount in 2016, Dion Lewis in 2017, and Sony Michel in 2018. We are due for a change.

Patriots beat writers are already hinting that Michel and Harris will split early-down work at the very least. If Harris ends up stealing this job he could be the steal of the draft given he is currently ranked at RB 64.

RB Depth Chart for Every NFL Team

Current 4-Deep Running Back Depth Chart for All 32 NFL Teams

There is little more important than the actual depth chart when analyzing potential sleepers. Even the most talented backs in the NFL are limited by the players that they share the RB-room with.

Unlike our WR sleeper picks, that features Anthony Miller who will clearly share targets with Allen Robinson in 2020, two is a crowd at running back and barring injury, you really don’t want to have to rely on a guy playing behind an entrenched starter.

Below is the current RB depth chart for every team in the NFL. Some teams are absolutely stacked at the position: Ravens, Broncos, Packers, 49ers… While other teams clearly present an opportunity for a new player to win the lead role: Dolphins, Patriots, Chiefs, Bucs, Rams… Where will you turn for your late-round RB sleeper?

Chris Lollis

Clearwater, FL