2020 QB Sleepers

2020 QB Sleepers

Is there such a thing as a sleeper QB? While it is unlikely we see a quarterback ever jump from a preseason ranking of 25 to a top 3 player at the position, recent history has shown us guys can certainly make the jump from 15 to 1 like Lamar Jackson did last season.

Which QB offers the most value at their current ranking?

rb sleepers for the 2020 fantasy football season

Our Favorite Sleeper QB Picks for 2020

We typically do not see true sleeper QB’s in fantasy football. Instead what we tend to see is guys making the jump from one tier to the next. For instance, Lamar Jackson jumped from a preseason ranking of QB14 to finishing the season QB1, Winston went from QB13 to QB5, Minshew went from unranked to QB19.

So what quarterbacks are ready to jump up a tier this season? Here are three sleeper QB picks we think are going to outperform their current ADP/Ranking.

PlayerPos.TeamCons. RankOur Rank
Carson WentzQBEagles117
Matthew StaffordQBLions128
Teddy BridgewaterQBPanthers2318

The QB position is ridiculously deep once again this season. You could easily make the argument that Drew Brees will finish as the top QB in fantasy this season. He finished less than a point behind Deshaun Watson for QB2, and now has two of the NFL’s top 10 pass catchers from 2019.

Beyond a ton of quality at the top of this class, there are still a ton of guys available late in drafts that will have plenty of QB1 weeks. Jared Goff is currently QB19, but was QB7 just one season ago, and should benefit from significantly better offensive line play in 2020.

All that being said, here are three sleeper quarterbacks we think are drastically undervalued at their current ADP.

Carson Wentz

QB   |   Philadelphia Eagles   |   Current Pos. Rank: 12
This is another player that the math simply does not add up for. The Eagles played most of the season without Alshon Jeffery, DeSean Jackson, and Nelson Agholor. On top of that, Mack Hollins and Zach Ertz were banged up down the stretch, Jordan Howard missed 10 games, on the o-line Jason Peters missed time, Lane Johnson missed time, Brandon Brooks missed time. It was a disaster.

He will enter 2020 with a healthy offensive line (arguably the best line in football) and a healthy group of receivers (which will include either Jeudy, Lamb, Ruggs, Jefferson, or Reagor). The rookies forced into large roles in this offense last season (Andre Dillard, Miles Sanders, and Arcega-Whiteside) now have experience and if COVID-19 ever ends will get another offseason in Pederson’s system.

All that being said, Wentz still finished as QB10 last season! That is one spot higher than his current ranking. Just to recap improved weapons around him, improved offensive line, easier schedule (8th easiest in NFL), but worse fantasy season. Don’t buy it. We have Wentz at QB8, but he definitely has top-three upside.

Matthew Stafford

QB   |   Detroit Lions   |   Current Pos. Rank: 13
For the second season in a row, Matthew Stafford is ranked ridiculously lower than he should be. Now, last seasons preseason QB26 ranking was absurd. The guy has been outside of the top 10 once in his career.

If we look at what Stafford did in year one in Darrell Bevell’s system, I think you can make the argument that he was playing the best football in the NFL at the quarterback position. He was QB3 in fantasy PPG when his season ended w/ injury, and still finished the season at QB4.

Why would we say he was playing better than any QB in football? Stafford was not only top five in completion percentage, adjusted completion percentage, and QB rating, but he did while making more big-time throws than anyone in the NFL.

He was number one in average completed air yards, average intended air yards, aggressiveness, and air yards to the sticks.

Like Wentz, there is a lot of positive surrounding Stafford heading into 2020. His big-play receivers return on the outside and are both still in the prime of their careers. Ammendola is back for year two with the team. Hockenson (who we are way up on) is a super-elite tight end in the making. Of course, everyone, and especially the offensive line, benefits from getting another full offseason working with Bevell.

We have Stafford currently ranked at QB8, but that is likely more aggressive than you will need to be to land him. We have both Stafford and Wentz as QB’s to target either late in round 7 or early in round 8.

teddy bridgewater sleeper for 2020

Teddy Bridgewater

QB   |   Carolina Panthers   |   Current Pos. Rank: 23
This is not an overreaction to Bridgewater’s six games with the Saints. In terms of fantasy, he was really irrelevant and QB23 is about the level he performed at. If you look at the advanced stats, he was probably a top 15 QB, but keep in mind he was in the bottom 5% in everything Stafford was great at. Payton called a super-conservative game when Teddy was the starter.

That being said, there are two reasons we are high on Teddy despite what would appear to be a downgrade in offensive systems moving from the Saints to the Panthers: Joe Brady and Robby Anderson. I have said for three years now that Robby Anderson is one of the most underrated receivers in football, and I think Brady and Bridgewater prove that point this season.

Joe Brady was just responsible for the single greatest offensive transformation I have seen in football. Granted having Burrow, Chase, Jefferson, and Marshall is a bit of a cheat code, but you have to give the guy some credit when that same group of players put up… literally one-quarter of the production… the year before. Brady will be a difference-maker for Bridgewater, Moore, Samuel, and Anderson.

The Panthers hoped Samuel would develop as a deep threat to go along with D.J. Moore, but that clearly never worked out and at this point, his catch % was sixth-worst in the NFL last year. Adding Anderson gives the Panthers a legitimate deep threat and will allow them to play more 11 personnel, which was Brady’s preferred personnel group at LSU last season.

Teddy is currently ranked QB23, we have him ranked QB18, but don’t be surprised to see him sneak in as a low-end QB1 if he can play a full season.

Potential Rookie Sleeper?

We are asked every year if there is a rookie flying under-the-radar that could play a role in fantasy football this season. Clearly Burrow, Tagovailoa, and Justin Herbert will get a shot at some point (if not immediately) for each of their teams.

Beyond that, no other rookie will see the field without an injury to the incumbant starter.

Not only did every QB drafted go to a team with an entrenched starter, but every team in the NFL (other than the Raiders and Jaguars) have a guy they view as their QB for the next few seasons.

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