DraftKings NFL Week 1 Pricing and Picks

DraftKings NFL Week 1 Pricing and Picks

Enough baseball, World Cup, Fortnite, NBA offseason drama, Bachelorette chaos, lawn mowing, camping, family, or whatever else has been wasting our time for the past two months.

Week one NFL salaries are out on DraftKings, and, frankly, nothing else matters. We will talk about these salaries ad nauseam over the next month and 8 days, but here is a first glance reaction to the week one player matchups and pricing.

Current Vegas Team Implied Totals for DraftKings Week 1 Main Slate

Vegas totals will be a mainstay in our lineup articles this season. In no way are we saying this is a must-use fantasy resource, but it’s a great way to familiarize yourself with what teams Vegas projects to score the most points in week one.

Kansas CityJacksonville28
LA RamsCarolina27
DallasNY Giants27

DraftKings NFL Week One Schedule

Big Names, Big Games: Our Favorite DraftKings Week 1 Stud Picks

There is going to be a ton of value on the board, but all that extra salary is useless if there aren’t big-name players worth ‘paying up for’. Here are our favorite stud plays for week one. For those of you looking for our favorite bargain plays just keep scrolling.

Carson Wentz

DraftKings Price: $5,700
Can the daily fantasy industry please give this man some respect? Every season he is underpriced, and this $5,700 price tag makes zero sense. Sure, Washington’s defense is tough, but it’s not like this is Wentz and Pederson’s first time facing them. In fact, as you can see below, Wentz has averaged nearly 27 DraftKings PPG against the Redskins over the last two years.

That average is 4.7x value, for Mahomes to reach that value in week 1 he would have to put up 35 fantasy points… something he didn’t do once after Hunt was suspended last season. We are going to be buyers anytime we can get a guy at home, against a familiar opponent, at 4.7x value. This was the story of Wentz 2019 season as he was a plug-and-play option on DraftKings reaching value in 9 out of 12 games.

The additions of Collins and Sweat certainly upgrade Washington’s pass defense, but when Wentz is healthy he is virtually unstoppable and I don’t think it matters what defense he is facing. The addition of DeSean Jackson will give this offense a legitimate deep threat that could cause issues given how lethal Jeffery, Agholor, Ertz, and Goedert have proven to be in this system.

Derrick Henry

DraftKings Price: $5,900
I’m sorry for this unpopular opinion, but I’m not buying into this Browns defense. To me, Dorsey signs the shiniest free agents, but this defense is nothing more than a house with fancy furniture and crap foundation. The linebackers are arguably the worst in the league, and the lack of depth at DT is shocking. The Browns are going into the regular season with only two legitimate NFL defensive tackles, and that includes Sheldon Richardson who may not be able to play anymore. The team also brought in Steve Wilks as DC, who coached the Cardinals last season, a defense that finished 32nd in rushing yards per game allowed and 32nd in rushing yards per carry allowed.

We are going to find out what this run defense is made of right away in week one. In my opinion, Derrick Henry is the best pure runner in the NFL and if that group of DT’s and linebackers allow him to get to the second level it’s going to be lights out. At 6’3″ 240 lbs running in the low 4.5’s he is bigger, stronger, and faster than almost everybody in the league and has displayed that with his litany of long runs (he had a 99 yard TD and had 2 70+ yard touchdowns called back last season).

The Titans have stated all offseason that their offense is going to revolve around Henry and the power run game, which also happens to be the strength of this offensive line. I think the gameplan for the Titans will be particularly run-heavy for week one if Lewan is in fact suspended… given how lethal this Cleveland pass rush is, the last thing the Titans want to do is start the season with a Mariota injury. Side note: Derrick Henry is currently 20:1 at Bovada to win the league rushing title.

Chris Godwin

DraftKings Price: $6,200
Ok, so maybe not big names status just yet, but 100% will be by week two of this season. If we get a preseason glimpse of how productive he is going to be in this system then he may be the highest owned player in week one. I 100% think he should be.

Even with the Verrett addition, this 49ers secondary is an absolute joke, and we know Godwin is going to line up all over the field including spending a lot of time in the slot, which will likely keep him away from Sherman for the majority of the game. San Francisco was 26th vs #2 receivers and 31st vs slot receivers in 2018. It’s going to be a long day for this unit, particularly considering it will be 125 degrees in Tampa in August, trust me, I live here.

In case you missed everything we wrote this offseason, Godwin is going to be one of the busiest receivers in the NFL this season. We currently have him projected to receive 140 targets this season, which would have been 10th in the NFL in 2018. He is currently our WR12, is priced as WR14 in a 12 game slate, meaning he is considerably undervalued at his current DraftKings week 1 price.

Hunter Henry

DraftKings Price: $3,900
When he is healthy, this dude is a stud and we know that he should be healthy for at least week one. One of the most talented tight ends in the league, Henry was stuck behind Antonio Gates for his first two seasons in the NFL, and then missed all of last season with a torn ACL. He still managed to put up 81/1,157/12 on just 117 targets when he was active.

We also know the weak spot on this Indianapolis defense is vs opposing tight ends. While Indy was one of the NFL’s top defenses in 2018, they were 28th in DVOA vs tight ends giving up 8/76 on average. If the Colts secondary is able to slow down Keenan Allen and Mike Williams, and Melvin Gordon is in fact holding out, Henry may end up having one of his busiest games of the season. At just $3,900 on DraftKings, he is our top pick at tight end in week one.

Our Favorite DraftKings Week 1 Value Picks

As is generally the case with week 1 pricing, particularly seeing as it comes out before the preseason even kicks off each season, there is going to be a ton of value on the board by the time week one gets here. The fantasy community is getting smarter and smarter every year, so you can expect the majority of these value picks to be chalk plays by the time week one comes around.

Nick Foles

DraftKings Price: $5,300
Hopefully, this pick makes it clear how gross the Carson Wentz $5,700 salary is.

I’m not sold Mahomes and the Chiefs are going to be able to score on the Jags and force Foles to throw a ton, as they will to most opponents, but I know they won’t sustain long drives and keep Foles off the field. The Chiefs were 26th in time of possession in 2018, and that was even with Kareem Hunt playing through week 11. Like it or not, Damien Williams is a massive drop off from Hunt, particularly in the run game.

I’m also not sold that Jacksonville will be able to run the ball this season. Pull up DeFillipo’s track record. His offense is where running games go to die. A snippet from an article we wrote a week ago:

DeFillipo took a bad Browns offense in 2015 and made it worse, moving a 7-9 Cleveland team (27th in scoring) to 3-13 (30th in scoring). He was then hired as the QB coach under a great offensive HC in Philly and parlayed that into another opportunity as OC in Minnesota. He took the 10th overall Vikings offense and managed to drop them to 23rd overall before being fired in week 14. In every instance, the rushing numbers decreased dramatically, including dropping from 8th to 30th in Minnesota last season.

How quickly will DeFillipo move away from Mr. 3.3 YPC Fournette and let Foles and this underrated group of receivers go to work against a porous Chiefs secondary? Blake Bortles put up 29 fantasy points in this matchup in week 5 of last season, on the road, in a weaker system, with a weaker group of receivers.

Kerryon Johnson

DraftKings Price: $5,800
Johnson is a guy we have been high on all offseason, and will certainly have plenty of shares of in week one. With Riddick gone, Johnson has little competition for early-down work and no competition for passing-down work in the Lions new, run first, offense.

We saw glimpses of Johnson’s potential in 2019, albeit behind a decimated offensive line, and in a fairly predictable offensive scheme. Darrell Bevell has a lot to work with in Detroit, arguably more than he ever had in Seattle. This offensive line is one of the more underrated units in the league, and the skill positions are loaded between Johnson, Hockenson, Golladay, and Marvin Jones.

As far as the matchup goes, Arizona was dead last in both rushing yards per game and rushing yards per attempt in 2018. They will also be breaking in a new system, one that projects to put up some points, but certainly not control time of possession. This week one matchup is set up quite nicely for Kerryon, and his $5,800 price tag should allow him to hit 4x value.

Peyton Barber

DraftKings Price: $4,000
If we’ve said it once this offseason, we’ve said it a thousand times, start listening to what the Bucs staff is saying about the RB position. Peyton Barber is going to be the guy, and we aren’t sure Ronald Jones will have any sort of role on this offense in 2019.

At the very least, Barber will get early-down and goal-line work, and word out of camp is that he has been extremely active in the passing game through the first week of camp. We know Arians values a versatile back, and the team has said they view Barber as being more than capable to not only be a power run guy but to catch the ball as well.

San Francisco was 19th in fantasy PPG allowed to opposing RB’s in 2018, giving up around 23 per game in PPR leagues. If Barber gets the majority of snaps in this game, which certainly has shootout potential, he is just about a lock to reach value given his $4,000 salary.

Dede Westbrook

DraftKings Price: $4,800
Westbrook is another guy that we have been hyping all offseason, and can’t wait to get him into our week one lineups. A matchup with a Chiefs defense that ranked 29th in DVOA vs slot receivers in 2018 certainly hasn’t helped temper our expectations for the third-year receiver.

If you look at Westbrook’s skill-set, he fits favorably with what DeFillipo is going to want to do with this Jags passing game. Playing to Nick Foles’ strengths as a passer is going to be important, which means guys like Westbrook and Conley, that can beat man coverage and get open quickly, are going to be extremely busy this season.

This is likely a make or break year for Westbrook, who was inconsistent in 2018 despite getting over 100 targets on the year. He topped 17 fantasy points just four times while scoring less than 10 points six times. There are obviously a lot of factors in play here, and many of them were addressed this offseason.

The scheme will be better (in terms of passing at least) under DeFillipo, the offensive line is healthy and deeper, and Nick Foles should give the Jags much better QB play. Let’s see if Westbrook can cash in on these changes and finally have the breakout season we have been waiting for.

Marquise Goodwin

DraftKings Price: $4,000
Please, for the love of god, don’t let him score a long touchdown in the preseason… because he is sure as hell going to get one in week one. This Bucs secondary is really, really bad, and aside from Vita Vea, the pass rush may be even worse. Translation:

and maybe a little Jimmy to Goodwin magic:

That’s all.

T.J. Hockenson

DraftKings Price: $3,100
Hockenson has been the star of Lions’ camp, and gives Detroit that tight end threat that they have lacked for years now. We think the Lions will be eager to show off their new toy, and, despite what the numbers may say, it’s a perfect matchup for Hockenson to shine in.

With Patrick Peterson taking away one of the Lions’ big two receivers, Detroit will likely lean heavily on the run, then look to take advantage of Arizona’s weak group of linebackers and safeties in play action. This is where they expect Hockenson to thrive, and we expect him to have a mismatch all day against the Cardinals.

Arizona’s strength on defense lies at corner, where they have arguably the most talented group in the league with Peterson, Murphy, and Alford. The linebackers are suspect and Budda Baker was one of the weaker cover safeties in the league in 2018. The addition of D.J. Swearinger will help, but he will be playing his first game with this group and is still a guy that the Redskins had no problem cutting. One other point to make regarding this secondary is that Wilks is a great secondary coach, and his firing will have a larger impact on this group than anywhere else on the roster.

At just $3,100, it is worth taking a flier on the rookie tight end in his first NFL game.

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